200 possible? not MPH either!
05-06-2008, 02:28 PM
#1
Team Owner
Thread Starter
200 possible? not MPH either!
Track days would be gone I think.
THE RATINGS GAME
New 'super-spike' might mean $200 a barrel oil
Goldman's projections foretell persistent turbulence in energy prices
By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:42 p.m. EST March 7, 2008Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption."
Goldman on Friday also boosted by $10 the low end of its 2008-2012 projected range for crude to $60 a barrel -- significantly lower than current prices, to be sure, but a possible mark for oil if "normalized" trends return to the marketplace.
With the dollar's fall continuing and financial markets roiled by the credit crunch, commodities like oil have been drawing the fancy of increasing numbers of investors. Accordingly, Wall Street firms have been eager to adjust forecasts to incorporate fresh data on the global economy and energy supplies.
Goldman analysts Arjun Murti, Kevin Koh and Michele della Vigna said prices have advanced more quickly than Goldman had forecast back in 2005, when it predicted a range of $50 to $105 a barrel as part of its "super-spike" oil theory.
"We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view," the analysts said. "In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession."
Tacking on $15 a barrel to all of its oil estimates, Goldman now sees average selling prices of $95 a barrel for 2008, $105 a barrel for 2009 and $110 a barrel for 2010. The high end of its range is now $135 a barrel -- but Goldman hinted that prices could be headed even higher.
"As the lack of supply growth and price-insulated non-OECD demand suggest a future rebound in U.S. gross domestic product growth or a major oil supply disruption could lead to $150-$200 a barrel oil prices," Goldman said.
While saying it has a bullish long-term outlook, Goldman acknowledged that oil prices could correct from recent highs.
Favorite picks among energy stocks include Frontier Oil (FTO:frontier oil corp com
Goldman also reiterated its view that oil prices could fall as normal market conditions return over the next four years.
"The core of our 'super-spike' view is that oil prices will keep rising until demand declines globally on a multiyear basis, resulting in the return of excess capacity and a lower cost structure," Goldman's analysts said. "Given this view, once excess capacity returns, we think prices can move sharply lower."
The analysts reiterated their "attractive" view on the European energy sector, but kept a neutral view on the Russian sector due to costs. It upgraded Transneft and Sibir Energy to neutral from sell after underperformance, and cut Imperial Energy to sell from neutral on capital-spending requirements.
Steve Gelsi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York. MarketWatch London bureau chief Steve Goldstein contributed to this report.
Community
8 Recommendations
Crude futures tap an all-time high atop $122 as dollar weakens
THE RATINGS GAME
New 'super-spike' might mean $200 a barrel oil
Goldman's projections foretell persistent turbulence in energy prices
By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:42 p.m. EST March 7, 2008Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption."
Goldman on Friday also boosted by $10 the low end of its 2008-2012 projected range for crude to $60 a barrel -- significantly lower than current prices, to be sure, but a possible mark for oil if "normalized" trends return to the marketplace.
With the dollar's fall continuing and financial markets roiled by the credit crunch, commodities like oil have been drawing the fancy of increasing numbers of investors. Accordingly, Wall Street firms have been eager to adjust forecasts to incorporate fresh data on the global economy and energy supplies.
Goldman analysts Arjun Murti, Kevin Koh and Michele della Vigna said prices have advanced more quickly than Goldman had forecast back in 2005, when it predicted a range of $50 to $105 a barrel as part of its "super-spike" oil theory.
"We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view," the analysts said. "In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession."
Tacking on $15 a barrel to all of its oil estimates, Goldman now sees average selling prices of $95 a barrel for 2008, $105 a barrel for 2009 and $110 a barrel for 2010. The high end of its range is now $135 a barrel -- but Goldman hinted that prices could be headed even higher.
"As the lack of supply growth and price-insulated non-OECD demand suggest a future rebound in U.S. gross domestic product growth or a major oil supply disruption could lead to $150-$200 a barrel oil prices," Goldman said.
While saying it has a bullish long-term outlook, Goldman acknowledged that oil prices could correct from recent highs.
Favorite picks among energy stocks include Frontier Oil (FTO:frontier oil corp com
Goldman also reiterated its view that oil prices could fall as normal market conditions return over the next four years.
"The core of our 'super-spike' view is that oil prices will keep rising until demand declines globally on a multiyear basis, resulting in the return of excess capacity and a lower cost structure," Goldman's analysts said. "Given this view, once excess capacity returns, we think prices can move sharply lower."
The analysts reiterated their "attractive" view on the European energy sector, but kept a neutral view on the Russian sector due to costs. It upgraded Transneft and Sibir Energy to neutral from sell after underperformance, and cut Imperial Energy to sell from neutral on capital-spending requirements.
Steve Gelsi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York. MarketWatch London bureau chief Steve Goldstein contributed to this report.
Community
8 Recommendations
Crude futures tap an all-time high atop $122 as dollar weakens
05-06-2008, 02:35 PM
#2
Team Owner
Thread Starter
old prediction looks unfortunately good
Published on 30 Mar 2005 by MSN Money. Archived on 31 Mar 2005.
Goldman Sachs: Oil Could Spike to $105
by Reuters staff
RELATED NEWS:
The expected economic impact of an energy downturn...
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil markets have entered a ``super-spike'' period that could see 1970's-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research report.
Goldman's Global Investment Research note also raised the bank's 2005 and 2006 New York Mercantile Exchange crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.
These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters.
``We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a ``super spike'' period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return,'' Goldman's analysts wrote.
The analysts said resilient demand had led them to revise their super-spike range to $50-$105 per barrel from $50-$80 previously, noting strength in oil demand and economic growth in the United States and China especially.
U.S. oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have averaged $50.03 per barrel so far in 2005.
Goldman Sachs is the biggest trader of energy derivatives, and its Goldman Sachs Commodities Index is a widely-watched barometer of energy and commodities prices.
Goldman pointed out thin spare capacity in the energy supply chain, and long response times for bringing on supply additions, as well as robust demand in the United States and in developing heavyweights China and India, despite the recent rapid increase in energy costs.
Harks Back to the 1970s
Goldman said the current oil market environment looked more like that seen in the 1970s -- when oil prices spiked dramatically following the Arab oil embargoes on supply to the West and Iran's revolution.
High energy prices threw the world into recession, and triggered several years of declining oil demand.
Supply growth continued unabated and bolstered spare capacity, which in turn stabilized oil markets at lower prices -- a phase of the market cycle that Goldman's researchers said had only just ended.
The bank also said its super-spike forecast range was conservative, noting declining U.S. gasoline spending as a proportion of GDP and consumer spending.
During 1980-1981, gasoline spending in the United States corresponded to an average 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income, Goldman said.
``Our new $50-$105 per bbl super spike range perhaps conservatively corresponds to gasoline spending in the United States that reaches 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income.
Goldman said that were it to assume gasoline spending needed to reach 1970s levels to destroy demand, its upside super-spike estimate would be $135 per barrel for New York crude.
``Perhaps the ultimate answer to high how oil prices need to go before demand destruction occurs is derived from knowing when American consumers will stop buying gas guzzling sport utility vehicles and instead seek fuel efficient alternatives.
``Based on our analysis of gasoline spending and the economy noted above, we estimate that U.S. gasoline prices may need to exceed $4 per gallon.''
© 2005 Reuters
Published on 30 Mar 2005 by MSN Money. Archived on 31 Mar 2005.
Goldman Sachs: Oil Could Spike to $105
by Reuters staff
RELATED NEWS:
The expected economic impact of an energy downturn...
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil markets have entered a ``super-spike'' period that could see 1970's-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research report.
Goldman's Global Investment Research note also raised the bank's 2005 and 2006 New York Mercantile Exchange crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.
These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters.
``We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a ``super spike'' period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return,'' Goldman's analysts wrote.
The analysts said resilient demand had led them to revise their super-spike range to $50-$105 per barrel from $50-$80 previously, noting strength in oil demand and economic growth in the United States and China especially.
U.S. oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have averaged $50.03 per barrel so far in 2005.
Goldman Sachs is the biggest trader of energy derivatives, and its Goldman Sachs Commodities Index is a widely-watched barometer of energy and commodities prices.
Goldman pointed out thin spare capacity in the energy supply chain, and long response times for bringing on supply additions, as well as robust demand in the United States and in developing heavyweights China and India, despite the recent rapid increase in energy costs.
Harks Back to the 1970s
Goldman said the current oil market environment looked more like that seen in the 1970s -- when oil prices spiked dramatically following the Arab oil embargoes on supply to the West and Iran's revolution.
High energy prices threw the world into recession, and triggered several years of declining oil demand.
Supply growth continued unabated and bolstered spare capacity, which in turn stabilized oil markets at lower prices -- a phase of the market cycle that Goldman's researchers said had only just ended.
The bank also said its super-spike forecast range was conservative, noting declining U.S. gasoline spending as a proportion of GDP and consumer spending.
During 1980-1981, gasoline spending in the United States corresponded to an average 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income, Goldman said.
``Our new $50-$105 per bbl super spike range perhaps conservatively corresponds to gasoline spending in the United States that reaches 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income.
Goldman said that were it to assume gasoline spending needed to reach 1970s levels to destroy demand, its upside super-spike estimate would be $135 per barrel for New York crude.
``Perhaps the ultimate answer to high how oil prices need to go before demand destruction occurs is derived from knowing when American consumers will stop buying gas guzzling sport utility vehicles and instead seek fuel efficient alternatives.
``Based on our analysis of gasoline spending and the economy noted above, we estimate that U.S. gasoline prices may need to exceed $4 per gallon.''
© 2005 Reuters
05-06-2008, 03:39 PM
#4
Race Director
A friend of mine who is a "green" lawyer (he represents companies in various green industries) says he's been told by multiple reputable sources that gasoline could be $12/gal by next summer..........
He's skeptical, but the news keeps coming.
He's skeptical, but the news keeps coming.
05-06-2008, 03:58 PM
#5
Le Mans Master
If that is the case, Track Days will be our LAST concern. This will have a ripple effect in the economy that will make the credit disaster look like a walk in the park.
05-06-2008, 04:08 PM
#6
Le Mans Master
One thought (and no gaurantee that it is a correct one!):
Most people thought the Internet stocks would only go up...but they went down.
Most people thought real estate would only go up...but it went down.
Most people are saying oil will go up more and more...maybe it will go down.
If the dollar's decline (and that has begun to reverse) and futures speculation have some effect on oil prices, than those prices certainly can drop.
Most people thought the Internet stocks would only go up...but they went down.
Most people thought real estate would only go up...but it went down.
Most people are saying oil will go up more and more...maybe it will go down.
If the dollar's decline (and that has begun to reverse) and futures speculation have some effect on oil prices, than those prices certainly can drop.
05-06-2008, 04:09 PM
#7
Team Owner
John,
You know why oil prices keep going up. Posts like this.
Its a speculative market, its run partly on reality and partly on emotion.
Most of the money I made in penny stocks 20 percent, if that, was based on reality, the rest was just riding the emotional wave from others.
12/gal?
Come on...this is the stuff that irks me. The media talks about it, the sheeple get used to the idea and cry the sky is falling, prices rise.
Thats why its a speculative market.
I also seriously question demand not declining.
Every single store I've been to has been empty. Every restaurant has been emtpy except for weekends. People are driving slower. There was not a single person doing over 75mph on the freeway home today.
Myself I've cut my gas useage nearly in half. Our Grand Cherokee got 17mpg, the Audi A6 2.7t will get me just a shade under 29mpg(with 320hp/380ft lbs to boot) by the time I'm done with this tank.
The stock market a lot of times doesn't dive in real data, it dives on emotion and panic.
Open up ANWAR to drilling, not a single hole will ever be made in the ground before prices are back to under $50 a barrel.
BTW my track day business has increased with the higher prices. Cars become speciality toys, not every day toys so when a track day comes up all that money they would have spent driving it daily is now put towards doing a set of track days.
PS...buy oil futures if your worried about oil prices going up
Oh and this is my opportunity to say how much I loath the Democrats....our girl Jenny whines and complains about how much money the oil companies make yet never says a peep about how Michigan governments retirement fund is HEAVILY invested in oil. Jenny will live her retirement off the oil companies, as do many of our parents and other people who have retired and invested.
Cut oil down to nothing price wise, take all the profits away and get used to entertaining your parents in their old age because their retirement funds went to crap.
You know why oil prices keep going up. Posts like this.
Its a speculative market, its run partly on reality and partly on emotion.
Most of the money I made in penny stocks 20 percent, if that, was based on reality, the rest was just riding the emotional wave from others.
12/gal?
Come on...this is the stuff that irks me. The media talks about it, the sheeple get used to the idea and cry the sky is falling, prices rise.
Thats why its a speculative market.
I also seriously question demand not declining.
Every single store I've been to has been empty. Every restaurant has been emtpy except for weekends. People are driving slower. There was not a single person doing over 75mph on the freeway home today.
Myself I've cut my gas useage nearly in half. Our Grand Cherokee got 17mpg, the Audi A6 2.7t will get me just a shade under 29mpg(with 320hp/380ft lbs to boot) by the time I'm done with this tank.
The stock market a lot of times doesn't dive in real data, it dives on emotion and panic.
Open up ANWAR to drilling, not a single hole will ever be made in the ground before prices are back to under $50 a barrel.
BTW my track day business has increased with the higher prices. Cars become speciality toys, not every day toys so when a track day comes up all that money they would have spent driving it daily is now put towards doing a set of track days.
PS...buy oil futures if your worried about oil prices going up
Oh and this is my opportunity to say how much I loath the Democrats....our girl Jenny whines and complains about how much money the oil companies make yet never says a peep about how Michigan governments retirement fund is HEAVILY invested in oil. Jenny will live her retirement off the oil companies, as do many of our parents and other people who have retired and invested.
Cut oil down to nothing price wise, take all the profits away and get used to entertaining your parents in their old age because their retirement funds went to crap.
Last edited by NoOne; 05-06-2008 at 04:13 PM.
05-06-2008, 04:23 PM
#8
Former Vendor
If they build a new pipe line. See you guys when it's done. I will be up there from start to finish and come back rich
Sorry
Randy
PS How does a guy make money on this gas price thing, anyways???
Sorry
Randy
PS How does a guy make money on this gas price thing, anyways???
05-06-2008, 05:08 PM
#10
Team Owner
Thread Starter
Long before 12 people will cut consumption all around the world and that will temper pricing. I think we are now at 4-4.50 will really cut consumption. Hard to find anyone doing 60 MPH in Long Island. I do 55-60 and get 22+ on the Excursion and Dodge Dooley cruising. People are blowing by me like nothing. I went on a 60 minute round trip and passed may be 4 cars by few MPH.
This post will do nothing it is simple math oil prices are stripping away money in everything you touch, I can't really notice the food business slowing but big chains are feeling the pinch of 10-15% some have reported. Heating with oil in the NE is rough it cost thousands and electric surcharges from oil use is big too.
I think track events will feel it if things go higher or the future is unknown to people. Dam I know I won't run as much as I did years ago where I did 40+ days possibly on track. Look at the 25 dollar rotor gone with a big percentage increase. How many people will have their job affected by oil or be out of a job? Marine industry is dumping thousands of people. I use to go to Sears to look at wrenches and always buy something but not anymore. I combine trip to Sears with going to work.
I think the line is very fine between shortage and high price and excess oil and lower prices. Emerging third world may continue to take the excess up and not let prices drop. Funny thing I said to my friend "I got some cheap diesel it was only $4.50"
I said to him did you hear what I just said?
Feel sorry for young people today lucky I will be turning in to oil soon.
Ford said to meet CAFÉ they will need to reduce car weight from 250 to 750 lb. per vehicle. That gives you an idea that the new Veter will be very light as it seems to be there test platform for many things. Ford also said prices of all vehicles will rise dramatically to accomplish the goals.
This post will do nothing it is simple math oil prices are stripping away money in everything you touch, I can't really notice the food business slowing but big chains are feeling the pinch of 10-15% some have reported. Heating with oil in the NE is rough it cost thousands and electric surcharges from oil use is big too.
I think track events will feel it if things go higher or the future is unknown to people. Dam I know I won't run as much as I did years ago where I did 40+ days possibly on track. Look at the 25 dollar rotor gone with a big percentage increase. How many people will have their job affected by oil or be out of a job? Marine industry is dumping thousands of people. I use to go to Sears to look at wrenches and always buy something but not anymore. I combine trip to Sears with going to work.
I think the line is very fine between shortage and high price and excess oil and lower prices. Emerging third world may continue to take the excess up and not let prices drop. Funny thing I said to my friend "I got some cheap diesel it was only $4.50"
I said to him did you hear what I just said? Feel sorry for young people today lucky I will be turning in to oil soon.
Ford said to meet CAFÉ they will need to reduce car weight from 250 to 750 lb. per vehicle. That gives you an idea that the new Veter will be very light as it seems to be there test platform for many things. Ford also said prices of all vehicles will rise dramatically to accomplish the goals.
Last edited by John Shiels; 05-06-2008 at 05:10 PM.
05-06-2008, 06:13 PM
#11
Melting Slicks
Member Since: Nov 2006
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 2,462
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Hey John,
The last time I was at Sears Point it was the biggest event EVER for NASA norcal. The gas prices are already $4.00 per gallon. I guess when you're spending a dime on tires and track fees etc., the $4 gas is an afterthought. Not sure why but it hasn't affected attendance at all. In fact, there were so many people that they were parked up on the hill. Look at the top of the pic, that's not even the same parking lot as the grid. Have fun walking to your download session. LOL
The last time I was at Sears Point it was the biggest event EVER for NASA norcal. The gas prices are already $4.00 per gallon. I guess when you're spending a dime on tires and track fees etc., the $4 gas is an afterthought. Not sure why but it hasn't affected attendance at all. In fact, there were so many people that they were parked up on the hill. Look at the top of the pic, that's not even the same parking lot as the grid. Have fun walking to your download session. LOL
05-06-2008, 06:18 PM
#12
Former Vendor
Long before 12 people will cut consumption all around the world and that will temper pricing. I think we are now at 4-4.50 will really cut consumption. Hard to find anyone doing 60 MPH in Long Island. I do 55-60 and get 22+ on the Excursion and Dodge Dooley cruising. People are blowing by me like nothing. I went on a 60 minute round trip and passed may be 4 cars by few MPH.
This post will do nothing it is simple math oil prices are stripping away money in everything you touch, I can't really notice the food business slowing but big chains are feeling the pinch of 10-15% some have reported. Heating with oil in the NE is rough it cost thousands and electric surcharges from oil use is big too.
I think track events will feel it if things go higher or the future is unknown to people. Dam I know I won't run as much as I did years ago where I did 40+ days possibly on track. Look at the 25 dollar rotor gone with a big percentage increase. How many people will have their job affected by oil or be out of a job? Marine industry is dumping thousands of people. I use to go to Sears to look at wrenches and always buy something but not anymore. I combine trip to Sears with going to work.
I think the line is very fine between shortage and high price and excess oil and lower prices. Emerging third world may continue to take the excess up and not let prices drop. Funny thing I said to my friend "I got some cheap diesel it was only $4.50" I said to him did you hear what I just said?
Feel sorry for young people today lucky I will be turning in to oil soon.
Ford said to meet CAFÉ they will need to reduce car weight from 250 to 750 lb. per vehicle. That gives you an idea that the new Veter will be very light as it seems to be there test platform for many things. Ford also said prices of all vehicles will rise dramatically to accomplish the goals.
This post will do nothing it is simple math oil prices are stripping away money in everything you touch, I can't really notice the food business slowing but big chains are feeling the pinch of 10-15% some have reported. Heating with oil in the NE is rough it cost thousands and electric surcharges from oil use is big too.
I think track events will feel it if things go higher or the future is unknown to people. Dam I know I won't run as much as I did years ago where I did 40+ days possibly on track. Look at the 25 dollar rotor gone with a big percentage increase. How many people will have their job affected by oil or be out of a job? Marine industry is dumping thousands of people. I use to go to Sears to look at wrenches and always buy something but not anymore. I combine trip to Sears with going to work.
I think the line is very fine between shortage and high price and excess oil and lower prices. Emerging third world may continue to take the excess up and not let prices drop. Funny thing I said to my friend "I got some cheap diesel it was only $4.50"
I said to him did you hear what I just said? Feel sorry for young people today lucky I will be turning in to oil soon.
Ford said to meet CAFÉ they will need to reduce car weight from 250 to 750 lb. per vehicle. That gives you an idea that the new Veter will be very light as it seems to be there test platform for many things. Ford also said prices of all vehicles will rise dramatically to accomplish the goals.
John,
It's the same thing around here. I drive a little car slow because I'm becoming a "cheap person". I love seeing the one person in a school bus of a truck going about 80mph. Getting about 8 miles to the gallon. I even laugh after I sit next to them at the following stop light
Food and Bars around here are all going under due to the smoking ban. I live in the big city now
Walked into a normally happening place, not anymore. Nobody around any bars anymore is what I was told. Do you think people quit drinking, nope they hang out at home because you can smoke there. Heating cost, lets not get into that. Because it is just plain stupid. One can't afford gas, corn and or the insurance for a wood burning stove. This is the first year the gas company could turn off service in the middle of the winter, lots of cold people
Track days will change, not for the better either. It's weird to see all these new tracks, wouldn't a investment group or person see these changes happening? Nowdays you can go into a kindergarden class room and half of the kids want to be racecar drivers, so maybe it will only grow, god I hope so. I have givin up a lot to stick to my love of cars, and work on "track cars'.
Cafe, should be shot
You think the prices will go up because of gas cost. Wait until you see it once the "green" BS goes to town on this great nation. How much money has Al Gore made on "Global warming" anyways
Randy
05-06-2008, 06:21 PM
#13
Former Vendor
Hey John,
I'm going to be sending some photos of some work for you, here in MN. If you would accept or if it makes any sence at all. The wifey found the house, great house nice garageSSSSS Foundation issues
Randy
I'm going to be sending some photos of some work for you, here in MN. If you would accept or if it makes any sence at all. The wifey found the house, great house nice garageSSSSS Foundation issues
Randy
05-06-2008, 06:30 PM
#14
Drifting
The demand for new energy in China is staggering. I was there in '04 and was amazed at the construction going on everywhere. In Beijing alone they were adding 1500 new cars a day to the streets. All those thousands of factories that replaced ours, have workers and managers etc that can now afford to drive a car. 
speculation and demand are driving this. No one person or entity is controlling it. Those that think Exxon is causing this are smoking crack. If they could, they would have done this years ago. It's outside our control. We can do some things to mitigate it for sure, but we are along for the ride. (annoucing that we are going to start drilling in AK would pour cold water on some of the speculation)
Supply and Demand, I remember when Jimmy Carter thought he could manage that with legislation.
I think everyone is going to have to make sacrifices, I leave the Expedition home and drive the Vette to work. It's my way of taking one for the team.
Just my .02 worth. That and 5 bucks will get you a Starbucks.
speculation and demand are driving this. No one person or entity is controlling it. Those that think Exxon is causing this are smoking crack. If they could, they would have done this years ago. It's outside our control. We can do some things to mitigate it for sure, but we are along for the ride. (annoucing that we are going to start drilling in AK would pour cold water on some of the speculation)
Supply and Demand, I remember when Jimmy Carter thought he could manage that with legislation.
I think everyone is going to have to make sacrifices, I leave the Expedition home and drive the Vette to work. It's my way of taking one for the team.
Just my .02 worth. That and 5 bucks will get you a Starbucks.
05-06-2008, 07:16 PM
#15
Team Owner
Thread Starter
05-06-2008, 07:19 PM
#16
Team Owner
Thread Starter
Just talk to my friend who does stock car racing and does fiber glass repair on my car. He said this year will be a thinning crowd of guys running at the track on Long Island.
05-06-2008, 07:25 PM
#17
Team Owner
Thread Starter
Hey John,
The last time I was at Sears Point it was the biggest event EVER for NASA norcal. The gas prices are already $4.00 per gallon. I guess when you're spending a dime on tires and track fees etc., the $4 gas is an afterthought. Not sure why but it hasn't affected attendance at all. In fact, there were so many people that they were parked up on the hill. Look at the top of the pic, that's not even the same parking lot as the grid. Have fun walking to your download session. LOL
The last time I was at Sears Point it was the biggest event EVER for NASA norcal. The gas prices are already $4.00 per gallon. I guess when you're spending a dime on tires and track fees etc., the $4 gas is an afterthought. Not sure why but it hasn't affected attendance at all. In fact, there were so many people that they were parked up on the hill. Look at the top of the pic, that's not even the same parking lot as the grid. Have fun walking to your download session. LOL
Last edited by John Shiels; 05-06-2008 at 07:47 PM.
05-07-2008, 09:59 AM
#18
Le Mans Master
We'll many guys that do track days either have lots of money or little money but no family responsibilities. So 22 year old kid will still afford some track days as that is all he has to pay for. The rich 50+ year old with lots of investments and cash coming in will still go. But the guys like me in the middle with a family and tons of bills coming in with expenses going up with pay not matching will have to cut something out. Food has tripled, gas is crazy and everything effected by it is going up. A trip to the store is now an expensive proposition for anything, and I have to dig into our "pleasure fund" more and more to pay for day to day things. I already don't go out to eat much, don't buy expensive electronics, and I pack my lunch at work to save some money. What blows my mind is that I actually make a very good living. I can't imagine how anyone can live (at least in NJ) under six figures.
05-07-2008, 10:23 AM
#19
Team Owner
Thread Starter
If oil gets 150-200 per barrel investments will tank also for the most part. people with businesses will feel it for sure also unless they are a mortician like my friend. It will hit everyone but some will survive. Deli lunch, breakfast, and coffee break is $20 per day or 100 per week Oil over 150 per barrel you will see a big difference on the road and track. No one really knows where the crash point of the consumer and economy is with oil. Consumption has dropped 1.5% so far from last year. With the annual increase 1.5% added in it is really a 3% drop. I would have thought it would be more by now. Not sure how much fuel consumption is really frivolous and can be cut. With a 1.5% increase per year the new CAFE standards are really not going to be the saving they seem but still required.
Article in paper where Landscapers are trying to get a few more dollars per cal (3-4) and people are saying good-bye and doing it themselves. The local township is going to convert all garbage trucks to natural gas under a contract to them for a cost of 19 million per year. They say savings in fuel will pay for it.
It will hit everyone but some will survive. Deli lunch, breakfast, and coffee break is $20 per day or 100 per week Oil over 150 per barrel you will see a big difference on the road and track. No one really knows where the crash point of the consumer and economy is with oil. Consumption has dropped 1.5% so far from last year. With the annual increase 1.5% added in it is really a 3% drop. I would have thought it would be more by now. Not sure how much fuel consumption is really frivolous and can be cut. With a 1.5% increase per year the new CAFE standards are really not going to be the saving they seem but still required.Article in paper where Landscapers are trying to get a few more dollars per cal (3-4) and people are saying good-bye and doing it themselves. The local township is going to convert all garbage trucks to natural gas under a contract to them for a cost of 19 million per year. They say savings in fuel will pay for it.
05-07-2008, 12:45 PM
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St. Jude Donor '08
To be somewhat of a contrarian here, I don't believe that gas prices will keep going up forever. We have encountered large spikes in gas prices in the past and gas rationing. Eventually, people will respond to these higher gas prices by cutting back on oil consumption and prices will drop.