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Old 02-13-2017, 01:05 AM   #1
batmitestar
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Default Speculation on used C7 prices this year

Hello everyone! I've done all my homework and this year will be the year I get my first Vette. I have to wait till December when the lease on my current car is over.

So, by December of 2017, the 2018 model year cars will have been out for several months. That means four-year-old C7's will be available.

I'm looking for a base car, 1LT is fine, and I'm not picky about anything other than preferring an automatic.

Anyone care to grab their crystal ball and guess how much I'll have to budget to find a non-salvage title C7 in December of 2017?

Thanks and sorry for a kinda weird question!
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Old 02-13-2017, 02:33 AM   #2
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I imagine low 40s high 30s?

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Old 02-13-2017, 07:32 AM   #3
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Used prices will be the at their cheapest (if economic conditions maintain) when the c7 incentives are the highest. Once fhe new c7 inventory declines, incentives will dwindle and the prices on pre owned will rise. When the only thing new for sale is the next body style without incentives then the used c7 prices will inflate more. This is pretty much the wholesale/retail trend I've seen on every model car in the last decade.

edit:with that being said I wouldnt wait until December to purchase. I would be ready in October (imo the lowest ws value of cars during the year the last 5 years). Get a loan with 90 days to first payment so you wont have your lease payment and vette payments at the same time.

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Old 02-13-2017, 09:23 AM   #4
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If the current depreciation rate continues, you should be able to find a base, 2014 A6, 1LT, for around $35K. I would budget a little bit more just in case you decide for more options or a vert. I'd start tracking around two or three months before you're going to buy. January is an excellent month to buy. Last year I started looking for used in September, but purchased in January. I found several dealers lowered their prices after Christmas, looking to unload Corvettes for the winter. Bought a CPO car in January.
You might want to consider paying a little more for a CPO car as those are usually among the nicest used, but cost a little more. However, you get a much better warranty compared to most other used.
Consider a 300 mile radius from your location. Prices in big population areas can be lower than smaller population areas. I drove almost 300 miles for the car I bought. However it was $4400 less, with more options than the best priced comparative, local C7.

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Old 02-13-2017, 11:01 AM   #5
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Lots of moving parts and some assumptions has to be made. Assuming everything stays level at the current depreciation rate used in leasing of 55.8% residual after 3 years, and no outside factors impact pricing, then we can conservatively expect the following for a purchased car:

First year depreciation
(MSRP less max discount) x .81 = Year 1 price

Second Year depreciation
(Year 1 Price) x .83 = Year 2 price

Third Year depreciation
(Year 2 price) x .83 = Year 3 price

MSRP is the sticker price and Max discount will be the greatest current discount offered within a 4 month average. Currently I see dealers offering 9-15% discounts, so we will use 12%. So lets say you found a 2014 C7 Corvette that originally MSRP'ed for $74,000. No matter what the owner paid for it, apply the current discount we calculated of 12%, so we come up with $65,120 as if that was the price paid for new on 12/14. So based on our formulas, this car would be valued at $52,747 on 12/15, $43,780 on 12/16, and $36,338 on 12/17 which gives us the residual I mentioned above.

This is just a ball park and a lot of things could change. What concerns me with value is that GM has made 3 times more C7's than C6's which means lots of inventory and more people willing to lower the used price to sell them. Should the C8 be announced and it turns out to be the car we hope it to be, C7 prices will drop like a rock. Conversely, if the C8 is a dog, priced way too high at $150K, will only come in Auto, etc., you may see C7 prices stabilize or appreciate. So again, a lot of moving parts. But if you use the formulas above, it should give you a good target for what they will be selling for. Good luck with your purchase.
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Old 02-13-2017, 11:15 AM   #6
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My take is slightly different. IMO, most of the time after GM offers huge incentives and the dealers climb on with further discounts the prices never seem to get any higher in the long run. New base coupes can be picked up in $46-48k range right now.

Unless there is a serious drop in inventory prices will continue to sink. If GM makes significant changes to the C7 and includes a 30-40 hp increase it will only make used values drop further.

The only way out of this is to decrease inventory and make cars harder to find. But I doubt that would ever happen because GM is in the business of selling every car they can.
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Old 02-13-2017, 11:30 AM   #7
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Lots of assumptions and opinions. December best month to buy a "toy" car.
My guess is 35k should easily buy 2014 Automatic coupe Dec 2017. Manheim average today for such a car is $38000 with 20k miles. My advice would be buy 2LT, price very close.
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Old 02-13-2017, 12:27 PM   #8
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I dig how much thought some of you put into responses. Thanks for chiming in.

My projected top end is $38k, and I think I can find what I want for that.

As far as being close to big cities, I'm in Orange County, so I'm <40 miles from LA, <60 from San Diego, Vegas and Phoenix are easily commutable, as well. I don't think I'll need to go further. Really would prefer to see/drive car and not get it delivered sight unseen.

Ideally, I'd find a 2LT, Auto, NPP that's not black or NRB. Arctic white with Adrenaline Red interior, if I'm allowed to be boldly optimistic.

Is the A8 way better than the A6 (2014) for daily driving? I will never be tracking the car, and it will be my daily driver for the grueling 4 mile commute to work.

Again, thanks for the input!
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Old 02-14-2017, 05:37 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by batmitestar View Post
Is the A8 way better than the A6 (2014) for daily driving? I will never be tracking the car, and it will be my daily driver for the grueling 4 mile commute to work.

Again, thanks for the input!
Six of one, half a dozen of the other. The A8 has a number of reported issues, specifically with the torque converter. I believe GM has the fix if the car is still under warranty, expensive otherwise. The C6 crowd pretty much says the A6 is pretty much bullet proof, but that means you will have to get a very early C7 which will be about 3-4 years old. Any reason why a 7M isn't in the cards? The saying goes, get the newest car you can afford. So I would gravitate to the A8, but make sure the TC was replaced recently as the initial attempts by GM didn't work out as well and the TC had to be redesigned a number of times. What you are looking for is a shudder or vibration when the transmission goes into lock up. Somewhere between 45-65 mph and as you hold speed for a bit on a level road. It may be slight, but it doesn't get better. Won't go into the details, but something to watch out for. Good luck and maybe you will find a 2LT Grand Sport for your budget by December. You never know.
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Old 02-14-2017, 09:02 AM   #10
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I don't get the used C7 market. I shopped and shopped and shopped for a stick torch red 2014-2016 C7 coupe. Every day on the web. I wanted to find a well equipped 2014, say a 2LT Z51 for low 40s. That might have incentivized me to buy such a car. Not a chance. Every time I saw what I considered to be a reasonably priced car, it was 1000-2500 miles away (I'm in NY) in friggin Alabama or California. Here in the northeast? It was nuts.

Not for nothing, but why would I (or anyone) pay $53K for a 2015 Z51 2LT coupe when i could buy the car BRAND SPANKIN NEW WITH FULL 2017 WARRANTIES AND PRISTINE (very pricey) TIRES for $62K??? I saw a bunch of cars priced like that. I'd start to consider such a car @ $48K, and I'd want to pay less. I bought the car new, I'm thrilled but I remain puzzled at the used car market. And these were cars at dealers who should know better. And these overpriced cars just sit and sit and sit and sit. I saw a couple of cars sit there for 2-3 months as the dead of winter approached and maybe they would reduce the car $1K-$2K.

WTF. Maybe these dealers are starting a late model C7 friggin museum or something and they want to keep them in perpetuity. I spent ten years in the high line car biz here in the NY metro, I have a pal who is an active high line car wholesaler here (he works out of a big place in Teteboro) a few miles from midtown Manhattan and he agrees. I've never seen anything like it, no cars are as overpriced on the used market like Corvettes, everybody from owners to dealers operate under this delusion that they're some kind of irreplaceable treasure. Newsflash: in the cold world of used high-line iron they are meat, and all these dealers will wish they retailed cars like those 2015s for $47K when they go to Mannheim and bring $44K (plus expenses) @ the auction.

I don't think you should have to pay more than $35K-$44k for a 2014 depending on equip and miles, maybe you'll see that in 2017 as buyers like me buy new ones and the used market adjusts to the current pricing reality. Or maybe not, maybe warmer weather and the closed Bowling Green plant put a floor under prices. Hey, all I know is within a year or two you'll see C7 prices dipping into the mid 30s and @ that price point it's the car deal of the century.
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Old 02-14-2017, 09:27 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patentcad View Post
I don't get the used C7 market. I shopped and shopped and shopped for a stick torch red 2014-2016 C7 coupe. Every day on the web. I wanted to find a well equipped 2014, say a 2LT Z51 for low 40s. That might have incentivized me to buy such a car. Not a chance. Every time I saw what I considered to be a reasonably priced car, it was 1000-2500 miles away (I'm in NY) in friggin Alabama or California. Here in the northeast? It was nuts.

Not for nothing, but why would I (or anyone) pay $53K for a 2015 Z51 2LT coupe when i could buy the car BRAND SPANKIN NEW WITH FULL 2017 WARRANTIES AND PRISTINE (very pricey) TIRES for $62K??? I saw a bunch of cars priced like that. I'd start to consider such a car @ $48K, and I'd want to pay less. I bought the car new, I'm thrilled but I remain puzzled at the used car market. And these were cars at dealers who should know better. And these overpriced cars just sit and sit and sit and sit. I saw a couple of cars sit there for 2-3 months as the dead of winter approached and maybe they would reduce the car $1K-$2K.

WTF. Maybe these dealers are starting a late model C7 friggin museum or something and they want to keep them in perpetuity. I spent ten years in the high line car biz here in the NY metro, I have a pal who is an active high line car wholesaler here (he works out of a big place in Teteboro) a few miles from midtown Manhattan and he agrees. I've never seen anything like it, no cars are as overpriced on the used market like Corvettes, everybody from owners to dealers operate under this delusion that they're some kind of irreplaceable treasure. Newsflash: in the cold world of used high-line iron they are meat, and all these dealers will wish they retailed cars like those 2015s for $47K when they go to Mannheim and bring $44K (plus expenses) @ the auction.

I don't think you should have to pay more than $35K-$44k for a 2014 depending on equip and miles, maybe you'll see that in 2017 as buyers like me buy new ones and the used market adjusts to the current pricing reality. Or maybe not, maybe warmer weather and the closed Bowling Green plant put a floor under prices. Hey, all I know is within a year or two you'll see C7 prices dipping into the mid 30s and @ that price point it's the car deal of the century.
I don't know when you were looking but I am in the New England are and am finding lots of cars out there for under $50K. Many of them low mileage and some Z51 cars and LT2 and LT3 base cars.

Also remember that when a dealer has a used under 10K mile 2015 Z51 LT2 for $51K, he most likely has a good $3-4K+ in wiggle room. Look at cargurus.com and find a used one that has been sitting on the lot for more than 100 days and the dealer will negotiate on price. You can probably get that same car down to $47-48K with no problem as long as you play the game.

I just missed a low mileage 2014 LT1 base car that was $39K... So I would expect by later this year that same car would be $36K.
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Old 02-14-2017, 10:17 AM   #12
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Since you have it all figured out you should start your own used vette lot....sounds like you will have the market cornered



Quote:
Originally Posted by patentcad View Post
I don't get the used C7 market. I shopped and shopped and shopped for a stick torch red 2014-2016 C7 coupe. Every day on the web. I wanted to find a well equipped 2014, say a 2LT Z51 for low 40s. That might have incentivized me to buy such a car. Not a chance. Every time I saw what I considered to be a reasonably priced car, it was 1000-2500 miles away (I'm in NY) in friggin Alabama or California. Here in the northeast? It was nuts.

Not for nothing, but why would I (or anyone) pay $53K for a 2015 Z51 2LT coupe when i could buy the car BRAND SPANKIN NEW WITH FULL 2017 WARRANTIES AND PRISTINE (very pricey) TIRES for $62K??? I saw a bunch of cars priced like that. I'd start to consider such a car @ $48K, and I'd want to pay less. I bought the car new, I'm thrilled but I remain puzzled at the used car market. And these were cars at dealers who should know better. And these overpriced cars just sit and sit and sit and sit. I saw a couple of cars sit there for 2-3 months as the dead of winter approached and maybe they would reduce the car $1K-$2K.

WTF. Maybe these dealers are starting a late model C7 friggin museum or something and they want to keep them in perpetuity. I spent ten years in the high line car biz here in the NY metro, I have a pal who is an active high line car wholesaler here (he works out of a big place in Teteboro) a few miles from midtown Manhattan and he agrees. I've never seen anything like it, no cars are as overpriced on the used market like Corvettes, everybody from owners to dealers operate under this delusion that they're some kind of irreplaceable treasure. Newsflash: in the cold world of used high-line iron they are meat, and all these dealers will wish they retailed cars like those 2015s for $47K when they go to Mannheim and bring $44K (plus expenses) @ the auction.

I don't think you should have to pay more than $35K-$44k for a 2014 depending on equip and miles, maybe you'll see that in 2017 as buyers like me buy new ones and the used market adjusts to the current pricing reality. Or maybe not, maybe warmer weather and the closed Bowling Green plant put a floor under prices. Hey, all I know is within a year or two you'll see C7 prices dipping into the mid 30s and @ that price point it's the car deal of the century.
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Old 02-14-2017, 10:51 AM   #13
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Automotive News as of 2-1-17 the inventory of Corvettes at 14,100 so what will GM do next to sell them?
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Old 02-14-2017, 11:09 AM   #14
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Automotive News as of 2-1-17 the inventory of Corvettes at 14,100 so what will GM do next to sell them?
I think they will wait and see how they sell in the spring and perhaps up the owner loyalty to $3k?
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Old 02-14-2017, 11:46 AM   #15
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Automotive News as of 2-1-17 the inventory of Corvettes at 14,100 so what will GM do next to sell them?
The factory will be idled for a few months during the change over to the new paint system so a lot of those will support sales during the down time.
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Old 02-14-2017, 12:09 PM   #16
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Any reason why a 7M isn't in the cards?
The Vette will be my daily driver, and even though I don't go far, the last manual car I had here I swore was the final. [An Infiniti G37S, which was a great car, my mistake choosing the M6]

I rented a 2016 1LT from Turo to make sure I would be satisfied with a lower level of amenities [current ride is an Acura RLX with all the bells and whistles] and a day in the base model A8 with NPP convinced me that 1LT is sufficient.

I'm not opposed to finding a 2LT in my budget, but it's not required. Sounds like a 2014 is really my best bet to avoid any latent A8 issues.

I'm already seeing them occasionally at 39k, so I'm fairly certain that by December I can find what I want for 36k ish.
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Old 02-14-2017, 12:38 PM   #17
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Since you have it all figured out you should start your own used vette lot....sounds like you will have the market cornered
WTF in my post makes you think I have it figured out? I'm just wondering why so many retail car dealers seem to have brain damage. Of course I was wondering that 25 years ago when I bailed on the car biz, and some of my pals who remain in that biz STILL can't figure it out.
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Old 02-14-2017, 12:48 PM   #18
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I don't know when you were looking but I am in the New England are and am finding lots of cars out there for under $50K. Many of them low mileage and some Z51 cars and LT2 and LT3 base cars.
I was looking from Oct and Nov., I figured the prices would start to get real with the winter approaching. And some of them did - in places like Michigan, California, etc, all far away from the NY area. I would presume that by now, two months after I bought a new car, reality may have started to permeate some of the thicker dealer and Corvette seller skulls. I mean, one can only hope. But it amazed me in the Fall that it wasn't already happening.

A firm grip on car market reality has never been a strong suit among the owners of used cars, individuals and business entities both regularly hold on too long for too much $. There is just too much stupid in the car market and there always will be, costs a lot of people a lotta dough.

Corvettes of course, are often the worst in this regard:

http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-cult...old-or-bought/

That was partly why I bought new, but even if you can find cars priced reasonably, finding the equipment, color, condition, pricing that makes sense - particularly on a stick shift car - can be very hard if you know what you want and you're not so flexible.
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Old 02-14-2017, 01:06 PM   #19
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So I am thinking they know what they are doing since most have been doing it for a long time, you have to play the game my man, our job to convince them about the value of their car and get it for the low-low, their job to take as much $$ from us as they can.
Why stop there with your accusation of their insanity, if you look at personal car sale , by owners , they have been drinking the same Kool aid..


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WTF in my post makes you think I have it figured out? I'm just wondering why so many retail car dealers seem to have brain damage. Of course I was wondering that 25 years ago when I bailed on the car biz, and some of my pals who remain in that biz STILL can't figure it out.
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Old 02-14-2017, 01:14 PM   #20
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So I am thinking they know what they are doing since most have been doing it for a long time, you have to play the game my man, our job to convince them about the value of their car and get it for the low-low, their job to take as much $$ from us as they can.
Why stop there with your accusation of their insanity, if you look at personal car sale , by owners , they have been drinking the same Kool aid..
I had a trade-in, I had to go to dealers. Retail car sellers? Retail car buyers? I'd rather hurl myself into a wood chipper, that's much worse.

It all worked out for the best, I got an aggressive deal on a new car. Sure I over payed, but sometimes you gotta get the new car. I just found the lack of pricing reality on the C7 used market this fall rather unfathomable. Hopefully it's adjusted to reality in the meantime. Hey, I don't care, they can all start their own personal late model C7 Museums. I hope that works out for them.
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