TedDBere

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...ebruary/71963/

Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf Show Lackluster Sales in February
Mar 3 2011, 9:07 AM ET
By
Megan McArdle

Autoblog reports that the Chevy Volt sold 281 units in February, down from 321 in February. Meanwhile, sales of the Nissan Leaf dropped from 87 to 67. The trend seems pretty dismal:

. . . here's the big scorecard for all sales of these vehicles thus far:

Volt: 928

Leaf: 173

Ouch.


It's going to take a long time at this rate to hit their sales target. Here's Charles Ghosn, the CEO of Renault, saying that he's going to sell 500,000 electric cars a year by 2013:


On the eve of the market debut of the Nissan Leaf electric car, Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of the Renault-Nissan alliance, said the only constraint on sales for the next three years will be how many battery packs the factories could churn out.

Deliveries of the Leaf are scheduled to start next month. Mr. Ghosn, speaking to reporters in Washington on Monday afternoon, did not say just how many he expected to sell in the first three years. He said, however, that the Leaf would hit 500,000 units a year in three years. Mass production, he explained, would lower costs enough to make the car a sales success without subsidies sooner than once expected. He said he once thought that number was a million cars a year, but now believed it was from 500,000 to 1 million.

173 down, 499,827 to go.


The planning for the Volt has been similarly optimistic flights of fancy:


Production of Chevrolet's Volt was supposed to be limited to 10k units this year, a target GM has already set its sights on surpassing. With 2012 volume projections now reaching 25k units, the next step in The General's quest to prove that the Volt is a viable vehicle is a staggering goal: doubling its 2013 production target from 60k to 120k units of production. According to Bloomberg, GM has not officially announced the 120k volume goal and may not build that many Volts in 2013 at all, if energy prices and supplier challenges don't allow it. And though supplier issues could well leave the goal out of reach, even if GM is able to ramp up production to fulfill its 120k unit goal by next year, there are no signs yet that the market will support those production levels. After all, GM is essentially banking on the kind of volume-to-price niche that BMW has taken years to cultivate with its 3 Series... which starts at prices slightly below the Volt's $41k, and still moved fewer than 110k units last year.
As Autoblog says, the question is: "Why?" Is this just the slow ramp-up of new production? Are the dealers falling down on the job? Did weather and the short month keep buyers off the lots? Did we simply need to see higher gas prices to goose demand, meaning that sales will now take off? Or did two major auto manufacturers dump huge sums of money into a technology that is struggling to get its sales volumes into the four figures?


It certainly wouldn't be the first time that companies have made this sort of colossal misjudgment. It wouldn't even be the first time an auto company has done so. (Remember the Edsel)? March and April sales volumes should be telling: gas prices are high, and the Leaf is supposed to hit 4,000 production units this month. If volumes remain low, we may be looking at green elephants.

wallyman424

Now correct if im wrong, but i thought the entire first years allotment of volts was already preordered?

SIK02SS

how did they beat their own number from the same month?

"Chevy Volt sold 281 units in February, down from 321 in February"


I almost bought one, then came to my senses....total range ~340 miles, and you have to pay for BOTH fuel AND electricity. No thanks, I'll get a VW TDI and have a ~600 mile range and 40+ mpg on highway..

but I am glad the Leaf is failing fantastically (also not living up to its mileage rating..)

SIK02SS

nope. local dealer was getting a lot of them (none were pre sold) and was trying to get me in one of my choice..

davidfarmer

I would be interested as an electric only. How many kwh does is take to get to a full charge? If the electricity costs less than the fuel I'm currently using, I'd go for it.

froggy47

A Consumer Reports test revealed that in cold weather the battery got them about 25 miles & switched to gas.

Turning on the heater does not result in much heat but kills battery life even more.

John Shiels

GM has new technology to extend battery life soon.

It is all new and people will buy them.
When gas hits 5 bucks they will fly off the shelf.

GE bought 10,000 volts.

rustyguns

i read using KWh its costs are around 90 MPG

SIK02SS

thats an average across the states based on who knows what price. remember, not everyone pays the same amount in electricity costs...

Falcon

And who is one of the companies that builds the turbines to generate the electricity? And who is one of the companies that will build the infrastructure that will plug into these vehicles to recharge them each night?

John Shiels

GE is working on it all now so why would they not buy them?

Falcon

I was trying to show that GE's purchases were because of their own self interest, not because they thought they were viable vehicles.

John Shiels

They must think they are viable if they are pouring GE money into developing charging systems. Also buying 10,000 is a another vote they think they are viable. I hope they sell thousands of Volts less oil from the Middle East and more people working here in the USA.

Many people will find them good for their shorter commutes and if they go farther the gas kicks in. Better than a Leaf were you are dead on the road. More they make the cheaper they will get and the electric range will be longer also with new technology. If they work beetr in CA and FL vs ND so be it.

wallyman424

I think the volt will become a much more viable car with better battery technology. That and when GM comes up with a more efficient generator system.

John Shiels

Wonder if you call pull power out if it in case of an emergency? They were going to do it on hybrid GM trucks for power tolls with contractors but I have not heard much lately. May be you could plug you fridge into it if you had no power?

John Shiels

Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Volt's Battery Capacity Could Double

GM licenses technology that could also make the batteries much cheaper.

By Kevin Bullis

GM has tipped its hand about the type of battery materials it aims to use in the next generation of the Chevrolet Volt and other battery-powered cars. It has licensed battery-electrode materials developed at Argonne National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy Lab. These materials, called mixed-metal oxides, could improve the safety and durability of car batteries and help double their energy-storage capacity, potentially leading to substantial costs savings by allowing GM to use a smaller battery pack.

Cost is the biggest problem with the wave of battery-powered vehicles that started to arrive on the market last month. GM's Volt, an electric vehicle that goes 35 miles per charge and has a gasoline generator for longer trips, costs more than twice as much as a similar-sized conventional car, in large part because of the battery. Increasing the amount of energy that a battery stores allows an automaker to use a smaller battery pack, thereby reducing costs.

"The whole concept of improving energy density is the prize when it comes to these kinds of vehicles," says Jon Lauckner, president of GM Ventures, GM's venture-capital arm. He says it's not clear yet how much money the new technology will save, but "suffice it to say, it is significant; it is not a single-digit percentage."

The current model of the Volt uses lithium-ion batteries made with lithium-manganese spinel cathodes ("spinel" refers to the three-dimensional arrangement of atoms in the material). The Argonne patents that GM has licensed cover a cathode material that consists of lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt. The material has both active components, through which lithium ions move when the battery is charged or discharged, and inactive ones that help stabilize the active material and extend battery life. Longevity is essential for electric-car batteries, which are designed to last for a decade and have to survive harsh conditions on the road. The new material has such high energy density because it can operate at a higher voltage than current electrode materials and also store more lithium ions.

The patents cover a range of nickel-manganese-cobalt materials, including new variants that GM and Argonne are developing and some components of the current Volt battery electrodes, which is made by LG Chem, a Korean manufacturer. The company has been able to use the materials because the Argonne patents only apply in the United States. But now LG Chem is building a battery-manufacturing plant in Michigan and must license the intellectual property from Argonne for use in products made there. Other companies such as Sharp are also commercializing batteries with nickel-manganese-cobalt electrodes, but of types not covered by Argonne's patents.

To increase storage capacity in future batteries, GM and Argonne (working separately) are modifying the nickel-manganese-cobalt material in a couple of ways, says Jeff Chamberlain, manager of Argonne's battery program.

First, they are changing the relative proportions of the three metals, to create a material able to store more lithium ions. Second, they are "activating" some of the inactive components, by freeing lithium from the inactive material so that it can move between the cathode and the anode. Once the lithium ions are free, they move only in and out of the active material, and the inactive material continues to play its stabilizing role.

Much work remains before these materials can be used in cars. "It's one thing to make powder in a reaction vessel here at Argonne; it's a very different thing to make a battery pack," Chamberlain says. "There is a lot of innovation on the engineering side in terms of turning these materials into batteries."

Doubling the energy density of the cathode does not double the amount of energy the battery pack as a whole can store. The storage capacity of the anodes has to keep pace, and the electrolytes have to be modified to work at higher voltages. Also, all three of these main components of the battery have to be engineered to work well together—for example, in order to limit unwanted chemical reactions. Once engineers have successfully incorporated the electrodes and electrolytes into working battery cells, more engineering is needed to incorporate the cells into battery packs.

The stability of the new materials suggests a way to increase energy density at the pack level, Chamberlain says. The current Volt battery pack is designed with extra energy-storage capacity to ensure that the car's performance doesn't suffer much as the battery ages. He says if future batteries lasted without needing the extra capacity, this would decrease the cost of the pack.

"This is probably the most capable cathode material that we have seen out there, and that's the reason that we think it's really critical that we get started working on this material now, so that we can get it on the road," Lauckner says. "It's going to take some years to further develop it and validate it. The idea is we want to get this on the road for the next generation of battery packs that come out."

Several other companies are working with Argonne's technology, including one, Envia, that is working with Argonne to combine advanced nickel-manganese-cobalt electrode materials with advanced silicon anode materials. This project, which is being funded by the Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency for Energy, aims to produce batteries that store three times as much energy as today's lithium-ion car batteries.

Copyright Technology Review 2011.

jlutherva

Uh, last I heard, the electric grid in the USA was between 95 and 99% utilized. Converting to electric cars will put us into rolling blackouts fairly quickly. Pushing this technology is dumber than a box of rocks, but fairly typical for our government.

Natural gas would be a much better technology to push for transportation.

Jim

John Shiels

I am sure the grid has been pushed the last 100 years. If there is money to be made it will be supplied. GM had discussions 3-5 years ago with the major power companies. Many will charge at a reduced rate from the power company when power consumption is lower overnight.

Natural gas is good too but may be it is harder to get a supply chain going. Everyone has electric in their home or work place. The rate of sales they expect will give them time to get it all supplied.

People will be going to work and plugging in and the employer will be

gbvette62

In 1911, you could buy a Baker Electric or a Detriot Electric. Both were electric cars that had a normal range of 75-80 miles, on a charge. It was claimed that the Detriot Electric could go as much as 150-200 miles, under certain conditions. Fast forward 100 years to 2011, were you can buy a new Chevrolet Volt, that goes all of 35 miles on a charge. 100 years of battery developement and countless millions of dollars of research, and the Volt won't go half as far as the 1911 Detriot Electric!

Now admittedly, the 1911 electrics didn't have PS, a radio, heater or AC, and only had a top speed of about 25 mph, but still just how viable are battery powered cars?

I just don't expect to see an electric car, that is anything more than a short distance commutor car, or some other sort of novelty, in my life time.

gbvette62

But I'll tell you what they're doing that is even dumber. Taking food off our tables, to make ethanol to power our cars.

By doing this, they have driven the price of almost all food products up, and in return have produced a less efficent form of fuel. Besides being less efficent than gas, it costs more to produce and uses more oil in the process. The ultimate irony is that the enviro weenies, that pushed ethanol on us, now want it banned because they've figured out it's dirtier.

If ethanol isn't the poster child for government ineptness, I don't know what is.