When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.
Historian David Halberstam wrote a book titled The Reckoning in 1986, which outlined the future of the American automotive industry at that time. It was concerned chiefly with the rise of the Japanese auto industry and the reaction of the domestic industry to that threat. I highly recommend it - I read it when it first came out, and just recently re-read it, having the advantage of 33 years of hindsight. I feel that many of the current predictions concerning electric automobiles will follow the same pattern . . . some of the predictions will come to fruition, most won't, and the domestic auto industry will continue to face more challenges from the Federal government than from anywhere else. Yes, some of those challenges will include alternative fuels - but far from all of them, or even the ones that may have the most impact. Stay tuned.
"Amaya Surveys the Oil Age". Most important chapter in the book......
Well, it is not my fault, I would never, ever, under any circumstances buy any electric car.
I'm with you on that. No interest what so ever. It actually makes me comfortable with my age.
Rumors are GM is all in on electric and is aiming to be all electric in what they say is the not to distant future for what ever that means.
I just hope after how they have responded to the last bail out we as a nation are not expected to do it again.
History repeats itself?
My wife had a sonata hybrid no external charging. She got like 44.2 miles per gallon on a road trip. When it was in electric mode if you jamed down on the peddal it was fast . And the batteries were covered for 10 years!
As a scientist who's studied and written research articles about ancient climates, and who can understand what's said about climate models today, I know that the sun is the main driver of the climate. At times when the sun puts out more radiation the climate heats up; vice verse when the sun puts out less energy. This has been shown by a huge amount of scientific evidence that rarely makes it into the media. Human effects on the climate are close to zero, based on observable phenomena and historical and geological evidence. As a result, there is no point to electric cars, solar panels and wind turbines; these fashionable baubles will vanish once political discourse catches up with scientific reality, as it eventually will. CO2 is plant food, pure and simple, and is in no way a pollutant. There is no reason for the Green movement to exists and it will certainly vanish. It needs to be replaced by a Clean movement to remove actual pollutants (mercury in rivers, plastics everywhere, additives in food) from our environment. Time will tell.
Lou
Human effects on the climate are close to zero,
I cant say i agree with you that man does not have any impact on the climate
There are no doubt that there is quite a lot of man-made pollutants
But off course it is also true that the sun puts out more radiation the climate heats up and the frezze up. This goes in cyckles
But to belive that man have not had any contribution to the climate is very wrong
But we as car fans do not contribute much to the climate i think. We drive a little and are careful with our cars
Personally I love the silence, torque, and clean motoring of an EV and will drive electric every chance I get. I've no issue seeing any classic converted to electric. Sure we'll get nostalgic for the rumble and noise of a thirsty v8, but there's no arguing better driving dynamics, lower maintenance and easier operation of an EV. To be honest, I don't mind the silence, too. Let's not overlook that pollution (vs. today's clean combustion vehicles) our old pleasure rides contribute.
I'm still amazed by the continued chest thumping support for oil-burning, as though electric is wimpy. My ***! Oh but there's money in oil and no doubt that's not going away either. Maybe folks resist change much like the old horse and buggy days, but drive ANY electric and you'll be amazed. The oldest electric I've driven was an elegant 1908 Baker, the most recent was this Audi eTron last month. Both were transformative experiences.
My eTron pic was taken on the old estate property I live at in Toronto, which coincidentally has the distinction of being home address for Canada's first registered car, in 1893 and it was electric. https://torontoist.com/2012/05/histo...horseless-era/ In 1993 the Canadian mint commemorated the 100th anniversary with a $100 coin. EV's have a remarkable place of history, but that's nothing like their future.
15 years from now ICE cars will be a minority. Ford has made significant investments with their Corktown plans, GM is putting everything into EV's and autonomous development too, lest they be left behind. There is an even more imminent shift by the smaller, more dynamic companies.
Jaguar: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/15...ctric-line-up/
Volvo also expects half their cars to be "fully electric" by 2025: https://electrek.co/2018/04/25/volvo...ully-electric/
Charging infrastructure, autonomous control and shared ownership of EVs are growing at an amazing rate. Coal or gas produced electricity is being phased out, but even where it is used, pollution controls are always more easily managed at the source than motive tailpipes. Increased grid demand will spur further investment in home battery power storage and more local production from sustainable (solar, wind, geo, water, etc.) sources. Battery tech is improving dramatically in efficiency, charge rates and more environmentally sustainable production methods than oil, which will always be a lot more expensive to ship than electricity!
Last edited by PaulUptime; 06-09-2019 at 11:17 AM.
Electric car acolytes fail to answer 3 critical questions:
- where will the power generation come from to charge a full fleet of EVs? It isn’t there now, and future choices are slim without nuclear power generation. Here in CA the environazis want to classify hydro power as non renewable.
- how would such increased power demand be transmitted? The existing grid can’t handle it.
- how are EVs a net life cycle benefit to the environment? Studies have shown the battery production (lithium mining) is worse than oil production.
Apparently EV adovactes don’t care about those considerations. They just feel smug in their own little cocoons.
We have 4 LS powered Restomods And 2 Teslas the Performance Model 3 will blow the doors off all of the corvettes. Just got back from a driving trip from central Florida to Chicago of over 3000 miles with charging stops at meal times no real inconvenience. On the way back in South Carolina a Camaro SS jumped me at a traffic light but with a 3.2 second 0-60 time we blew him away so bad he backed off and turned before the next stop, he had been chasing me thru traffic for a while. So don't knock it untill you try it!
Mark
Electric car acolytes fail to answer 3 critical questions:
- where will the power generation come from to charge a full fleet of EVs? It isn’t there now, and future choices are slim without nuclear power generation. Here in CA the environazis want to classify hydro power as non renewable.
- how would such increased power demand be transmitted? The existing grid can’t handle it.
- how are EVs a net life cycle benefit to the environment? Studies have shown the battery production (lithium mining) is worse than oil production.
Apparently EV adovactes don’t care about those considerations. They just feel smug in their own little cocoons.
Seriously, Tux? You're waiting for a universally perfect solution, yet you're the one calling those looking for better solutions smug, living in a little cocoon? Every single one of the concerns you mentioned is topical. If the existing grid can't handle it, the existing grid needed a reason to be improved anyway as (like most infrastructure) it has reached maturity. If you have too, compare the net life cycle (as you call it) of an ICE and all it's oily repair parts, exhaust, etc. for production, distribution and recycling to the life of an EV which is essentially nothing more than battery and electronics. Quote those studies on lithium mining vs. oil production. Now factor in oil distribution costs. Oil travels by pipeline, boat, road and rail. Electricity travels over wire.
Expand your thoughts on this a bit, Tux, or at least say why you are opposed to advancing EV. It seems an emotional issue to you, rather than a pragmatic one. Nobody's coming to take away your rights to drive a gas vehicle, and if that ever comes (likely not in either our lifetimes) running a petroleum-powered device will be like turning back today and refilling whale oil in our lamps instead of using the electrical lights we conveniently just switch on.
As a Ph.D. scientist, and like LouisM, educated and experienced in paleoclimatology (stable isotope geochemistry), I don't see any urgency to do anything about CO2, it makes no scientific sense and has no basis in scientific fact. So the real issue is economics, and since so many pieces of an all electric transportation system are in their juvenile stages, we should look at the task ahead to replace all petroleum transportation in the US, a huge part of the energy consumption, with electricity from whatever sources, and today the majority of "clean" electricity comes from hydro, and that is next to non-expandable given the environmental pressures against dams. This graph shows the sources of the US energy demand, look at how little is from non-fossil fuels and how large petroleum transportation is, any all electric car future is well beyond my lifetime, my kid's lifetime and my grandkid's lifetime, hardly worth debating.
Seriously, Tux? You're waiting for a universally perfect solution, yet you're the one calling those looking for better solutions smug, living in a little cocoon? Every single one of the concerns you mentioned is topical. If the existing grid can't handle it, the existing grid needed a reason to be improved anyway as (like most infrastructure) it has reached maturity. If you have too, compare the net life cycle (as you call it) of an ICE and all it's oily repair parts, exhaust, etc. for production, distribution and recycling to the life of an EV which is essentially nothing more than battery and electronics. Quote those studies on lithium mining vs. oil production. Now factor in oil distribution costs. Oil travels by pipeline, boat, road and rail. Electricity travels over wire.
Expand your thoughts on this a bit, Tux, or at least say why you are opposed to advancing EV. It seems an emotional issue to you, rather than a pragmatic one. Nobody's coming to take away your rights to drive a gas vehicle, and if that ever comes (likely not in either our lifetimes) running a petroleum-powered device will be like turning back today and refilling whale oil in our lamps instead of using the electrical lights we conveniently just switch on.
EVe in limited numbers and individually are great.
In your attempt to disparage my comments you failed to address the most important issue of all ( which was my first point). - generating capacity for a full fleet conversion. That’s not emotion, that’s fact.
I’m not opposed to EXs - just to the blind rush to politics driving mass conversion.
And yes , the Tesla drivers around here are smug in their self perceived superiority,
Coal or gas produced electricity is being phased out, ....Battery tech is improving dramatically in efficiency, charge rates and more environmentally sustainable production methods than oil, which will always be a lot more expensive to ship than electricity!
This is woefully incorrect. The majority of our electricity is derived from fossil fuels. It is being phased out in perhaps your mind, but not on the ground, or behind your electric outlet. Battery tech is far from improving dramatically, it is barely improving at all. It remains the single reason why EV's have yet to supplant ICE technology. The gains in efficiency and advancements have been in the devices that use batteries, computers, smart phones, and EV's. But the charging and storage rates, the efficiency of the battery has improved only slightly. Packaging and cost have improved, but to make an EV the bottom of the car must consist of hundreds of cell phone batteries.
Paul, I happen to agree with much of what you say concerning the virtue of an EV, they are a brilliant way to move a vehicle, and being a critical thinker myself I understand why you might admonish those who dismiss EV's out of hand. But as smart as you appear your first comments are big holes in your sails.
This is woefully incorrect. The majority of our electricity is derived from fossil fuels. It is being phased out in perhaps your mind, but not on the ground, or behind your electric outlet. Battery tech is far from improving dramatically, it is barely improving at all. It remains the single reason why EV's have yet to supplant ICE technology. The gains in efficiency and advancements have been in the devices that use batteries, computers, smart phones, and EV's. But the charging and storage rates, the efficiency of the battery has improved only slightly. Packaging and cost have improved, but to make an EV the bottom of the car must consist of hundreds of cell phone batteries.
Paul, I happen to agree with much of what you say concerning the virtue of an EV, they are a brilliant way to move a vehicle, and being a critical thinker myself I understand why you might admonish those who dismiss EV's out of hand. But as smart as you appear your first comments are big holes in your sails.
Dan
Hey Dan,
Perhaps where you are. I'm in Canada. Toronto, Ontario specifically.
From 2017...
Canada's Electricity-Generation From Fossil Fuels Drops to 20...
Between 2005 and 2016, non-hydroelectric renewables — wind, solar and biomass — grew from 1.5 per cent of total electricity generation in Canada to 7.2 per cent.
During that same period coal fell from 16 per cent to 9.3 per cent as a source of power.
I believe we're on track for producing electricity from clean sources. Hell, I'm right on the shore of (a currently very high) Lake Ontario, downstream from that massive Hydro Electric resource known at Niagara Falls. The province of Ontario has zero coal-produced electricity. We also have zero oil resources here. Our wide open land is abundant with turbine generators, so wind and all forms of solar are being tapped. You can see the direction this is going...
Speaking of directions, solid state batteries, ramped up production of li-ion driving costs down, improved range and longevity of EV batteries are proven facts. On average, a conventional car creates more the twice as much carbon pollution as an electric car. Even in the state that gets almost all of its electricity from burning coal, an EV still pollutes less than a typical conventional car. ... It's been said that 95-99% of the material in EV batteries can be recycled. How useful is recycled oil? How much energy goes into refining and delivering petroleum just to get into our tanks?
For me there's also the political/financial benefits to getting off "big oil." The Middle East has made enough money and trouble with their oil fueled global influence, wars and human casualties. I'm thrilled to see emerging markets (like the MASSIVE one in China) going EVs over ICE. Regardless how you feel about scientific evidence of carbon pollution affecting global warming, it is indisputable that reducing tailpipe emissions results in a healthier population and cleaner air. Oil collection and distribution threatens our ecosystems far more than any threat battery production could ever postulate.
Y'all can drag your heels with EV FUD but the topic of this thread is 'Future of the Auto Industry' and there's many damned good reasons for why that future is ELECTRIC. Whether it's your own future is a matter of choice, and a matter of time - but not much longer. The industry is turning a corner and we're in for one helluva new world with EVs. I'm looking forward to driving a EV C8, LOL!
Comparing the US and Canada is apples and oranges. The US is 8 to 9 times larger in all energy consumption/production stats. I lived in Norway for 5 years, and they practically give away electric power as they have so much hydro, and subsidize anything that runs on electricity, those kind of places are also nothing like the US in any energy aspect.
For me there's also the political/financial benefits to getting off "big oil."
And there it is....the politics of big oil. I'm here for the cars and to avoid proselytism from the self anointed righteousness squad. So, I'll bid you farewell and drag my heels out to my 62 Bonneville which badly wants to burn up some big oil.
I don't understand the hatred of the petroleum industry, all it has done is secure the highest standard of living for the lowest costs ever in history due to the abundance and energy intensity of the fuels discovered, refined, and used.
I don't understand the hatred of the petroleum industry, all it has done is secure the highest standard of living for the lowest costs ever in history due to the abundance and energy intensity of the fuels discovered, refined, and used.
I don't understand the hatred of the EV industry, LOL. Maybe it just doesn't mesh well with the "guns, god and glory" crowd, just another reason I don't waste my time in PRC.
Full disclosure, very happy to still have cheap gas for the SBCs in my '75 Silverado, '65 Sting Ray or '80 Baja boat, but in 10 years, looking back at a reduced global dependence on foreign-sourced oil would be the cherry on the whole EV/Industry transformation currently unfolding.
06-08-2019, 12:25 AM
I'm with you on that. No interest what so ever. It actually makes me comfortable with my age. 
