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Future of the Auto Industry

 
Old 06-07-2019, 12:43 PM
  #1  
biggd
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Default Future of the Auto Industry

Good article in the NY Times today "The car Industry is under siege". It's about changing habits and how the car companies are going to have to come to grips with retooling to make electric vehicles.
The future of Resto-Mods may well be electric power.
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Old 06-07-2019, 12:47 PM
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Well, it is not my fault, I would never, ever, under any circumstances buy any electric car.
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Old 06-07-2019, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by mikelj View Post
Well, it is not my fault, I would never, ever, under any circumstances buy any electric car.
Same here! I figure the i c e will be around for at least the 20 years or so that Iíve got left!
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Old 06-07-2019, 01:18 PM
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It'll take twenty years to get enough power generating plants in place. Maybe never.
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Old 06-07-2019, 01:42 PM
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Probably what the horse and buggy industry was saying when the horseless carriage first came out
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Old 06-07-2019, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
It'll take twenty years to get enough power generating plants in place. Maybe never.
No doubt.

It'll take 20 years to get the permits and lawsuits settled -------- none the less get them built.
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Old 06-07-2019, 01:53 PM
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Fear mongering, chest pounding and soap box pontificating by politicians.
I think the idea of majority electric cars is simply unsustainable. Here in California where electricity costs are in the stratosphere, rolling blackouts in the summer, with 6.5 million cars in Los Angeles alone, there is absolutely no grid in place that could handle even a quarter of that amount drawing from it, and won't be any time soon. Can you envision people pushing there smart cars into over crowded charging stations, just like at the gas pumps in the early 70's?
And at 13 hours to fully charge a smart car, logic says it just ain't gonna happen.

Last edited by Greg; 06-07-2019 at 01:58 PM.
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Old 06-07-2019, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeM View Post
It'll take twenty years to get enough power generating plants in place. Maybe never.
yes or longer given no one wants industry in their backyard. and you need fossil fuels or nuclear to generate most of it.

I think the distribution is as big a problem.

There is no doubt the car industry is undergoing change but the imminent demise of the gasoline auto is greatly exaggerated. You just need to do the math on electric car production vs total new cars being sold annually. I bet it is fractional. It will climb, but will take a long time.
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Old 06-07-2019, 03:38 PM
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[QUOTE=Greg;1599541386]Fear mongering, chest pounding and soap box pontificating by politicians.
I think the idea of majority electric cars is simply unsustainable. Here in California where electricity costs are in the stratosphere, rolling blackouts in the summer, with 6.5 million cars in Los Angeles alone, there is absolutely no grid in place that could handle even a quarter of that amount drawing from it, and won't be any time soon. Can you envision people pushing there smart cars into over crowded charging stations, just like at the gas pumps in the early 70's?
And at 13 hours to fully charge a smart car, logic says it just ain't gonna happen.[/QUOTE
I agree. And what nobody wants to acknowledge is that the electricity has to come from somewhere, and usually it's fossil-fuel based. So while the electric car seems clean, it isn't. In fact, it's carbon footprint is much dirtier than a standard gasoline powered vehicle. Electric cars have been around for the past 130+ years. The early cars had the same exact limitations as the modern ones: limited range and extended charging times from an outside source. Nothing has changed. ]
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Old 06-07-2019, 03:55 PM
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As a scientist who's studied and written research articles about ancient climates, and who can understand what's said about climate models today, I know that the sun is the main driver of the climate. At times when the sun puts out more radiation the climate heats up; vice verse when the sun puts out less energy. This has been shown by a huge amount of scientific evidence that rarely makes it into the media. Human effects on the climate are close to zero, based on observable phenomena and historical and geological evidence. As a result, there is no point to electric cars, solar panels and wind turbines; these fashionable baubles will vanish once political discourse catches up with scientific reality, as it eventually will. CO2 is plant food, pure and simple, and is in no way a pollutant. There is no reason for the Green movement to exists and it will certainly vanish. It needs to be replaced by a Clean movement to remove actual pollutants (mercury in rivers, plastics everywhere, additives in food) from our environment. Time will tell.

Lou
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Old 06-07-2019, 04:12 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by LouieM View Post
As a scientist who's studied and written research articles about ancient climates, and who can understand what's said about climate models today, I know that the sun is the main driver of the climate. At times when the sun puts out more radiation the climate heats up; vice verse when the sun puts out less energy. This has been shown by a huge amount of scientific evidence that rarely makes it into the media. Human effects on the climate are close to zero, based on observable phenomena and historical and geological evidence. As a result, there is no point to electric cars, solar panels and wind turbines; these fashionable baubles will vanish once political discourse catches up with scientific reality, as it eventually will. CO2 is plant food, pure and simple, and is in no way a pollutant. There is no reason for the Green movement to exists and it will certainly vanish. It needs to be replaced by a Clean movement to remove actual pollutants (mercury in rivers, plastics everywhere, additives in food) from our environment. Time will tell.

Lou

Off topic to OP but I agree with all but this in bold above and then in limited applications. Solar panels and wind turbines or wind mills are necessary for off grid living unless you want to run a noisy generator on either gas or propane that has a limited life that makes it financially unacceptable. With solar or wind power and deep cycle batteries, 12 volt for most items and invertors for other things it can be a very minimal cost and next to no carbon foot print with the exception of the effect the old dead batteries have on it.

Last edited by 68hemi; 06-07-2019 at 04:18 PM.
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Old 06-07-2019, 04:54 PM
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The Big 3 American automakers are making the same mistake they made in the 1970's losing the car market to foreign auto car makers not having fuel efficient cars back in the 1970's .

Those who started buying foreign cars in the 1970's are now buying foreign SUV's and trucks and never went back to American Made.

Pretty soon if you want a car you have to purchase foreign and if you like the foreign car you start buying foreign SUV's and Trucks.

The big 3 automakers days are numbered in my opinion....none will see the 22nd Century.
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Old 06-07-2019, 05:08 PM
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Lou, that is an excellent post.
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Old 06-07-2019, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Greg View Post
Fear mongering, chest pounding and soap box pontificating by politicians.
I think the idea of majority electric cars is simply unsustainable. Here in California where electricity costs are in the stratosphere, rolling blackouts in the summer, with 6.5 million cars in Los Angeles alone, there is absolutely no grid in place that could handle even a quarter of that amount drawing from it, and won't be any time soon. Can you envision people pushing there smart cars into over crowded charging stations, just like at the gas pumps in the early 70's?
And at 13 hours to fully charge a smart car, logic says it just ain't gonna happen.

Yes.

I saw some numbers on that.

A quick charging station to charge electric cars sorta quick, but not as fast as gasoline, cost about $30 million, and only handle about 1/4 the cars per hour compared to a $3 million gasoline station would.
Plus the power grid, transmission lines and generating capability. The idiot politicians who don't under stand science and technology, but think if they pass a law, 'somehow" teh scientists will figure out how to bypass the laws of physics if prodded hard enough.

Electric is fashionable now, especially since people can charge for "free", at various locations, but that "free" won't last forever. Of course, the electric car is only one small part of the plan, which includes moving people into very high density housing, where 400SF apartments would be the norm, and then walk or ride an electric scooter to work*, while depopulating the suburban and rural areas. Most people wouldn't need or have a private auto.

*You would be assigned an apartment based on where you work.

Of course we have all seem how master planned economies work out, in other countries.

Doug
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Old 06-07-2019, 05:14 PM
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Not trying to change anyone's mind, and I am not saying you have to go out and by a Nissan Leaf or a Tesla..... But, if GM, or whoever, can figure out how to really make this all a bolt-in, I think it would be intriguing. Remember, an electric motor is close to 100% torque at 0 RPM's, they accelerate like crazy from a stand still. Believe me, I am all for gas powered cars, but I have a '69 Camaro in the garage that needs a motor, and there is some intrigue...…..

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Old 06-07-2019, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by LouieM View Post
As a scientist who's studied and written research articles about ancient climates, and who can understand what's said about climate models today, I know that the sun is the main driver of the climate. At times when the sun puts out more radiation the climate heats up; vice verse when the sun puts out less energy. This has been shown by a huge amount of scientific evidence that rarely makes it into the media. Human effects on the climate are close to zero, based on observable phenomena and historical and geological evidence. As a result, there is no point to electric cars, solar panels and wind turbines; these fashionable baubles will vanish once political discourse catches up with scientific reality, as it eventually will. CO2 is plant food, pure and simple, and is in no way a pollutant. There is no reason for the Green movement to exists and it will certainly vanish. It needs to be replaced by a Clean movement to remove actual pollutants (mercury in rivers, plastics everywhere, additives in food) from our environment. Time will tell.

Lou
Wow! You mean there are 2 paleoclimatologists on this board???? Hello brother!
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Old 06-07-2019, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by CorvetteMikeB View Post
The big 3 automakers days are numbered in my opinion....none will see the 22nd Century.
Neither will I
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Old 06-07-2019, 06:58 PM
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One battery is enough!
How about more than 10?
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Old 06-07-2019, 07:27 PM
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Historian David Halberstam wrote a book titled The Reckoning in 1986, which outlined the future of the American automotive industry at that time. It was concerned chiefly with the rise of the Japanese auto industry and the reaction of the domestic industry to that threat. I highly recommend it - I read it when it first came out, and just recently re-read it, having the advantage of 33 years of hindsight. I feel that many of the current predictions concerning electric automobiles will follow the same pattern . . . some of the predictions will come to fruition, most won't, and the domestic auto industry will continue to face more challenges from the Federal government than from anywhere else. Yes, some of those challenges will include alternative fuels - but far from all of them, or even the ones that may have the most impact. Stay tuned.
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Old 06-07-2019, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted by AZDoug View Post
Yes.

I saw some numbers on that.

A quick charging station to charge electric cars sorta quick, but not as fast as gasoline, cost about $30 million, and only handle about 1/4 the cars per hour compared to a $3 million gasoline station would.
Plus the power grid, transmission lines and generating capability. The idiot politicians who don't under stand science and technology, but think if they pass a law, 'somehow" teh scientists will figure out how to bypass the laws of physics if prodded hard enough.

Electric is fashionable now, especially since people can charge for "free", at various locations, but that "free" won't last forever. Of course, the electric car is only one small part of the plan, which includes moving people into very high density housing, where 400SF apartments would be the norm, and then walk or ride an electric scooter to work*, while depopulating the suburban and rural areas. Most people wouldn't need or have a private auto.

*You would be assigned an apartment based on where you work.

Of course we have all seem how master planned economies work out, in other countries.

Doug
All good except there won't be any suburban or rural areas if there isn't some population control soon. Every rural area I've lived in over the decades is now a metropolis or at least a congested outlier of one.
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