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Hedging a bet on what the car would be worth. Simulation & #'s inside

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Old 05-06-2016, 10:12 AM
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Z0Sick6
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Default Hedging a bet on what the car would be worth. Simulation & #'s inside

Question,

I wish C7s leased well as I don't keep cars long, however, my CU has a smart purchase option with a balloon payment.

I thought it was interesting to look at... curious what some of you think about the numbers as this almost simulates a lease type deal.

Here is an example:

2016 C7 1LT A8
MSRP $58,144

48 months of payments (4 years) of $549 (tax included).

The car would see around 40-44K miles at the end of the 4 year term.

The "final payment" is $29,197 - Tax Included


So the question is.. fast forward 4 years from today, 5/6/20 - a 2016 1LT C7 A8... is it worth $29,197 with 42K miles?

If it is, this is a great deal to drive a car 10-12k miles a year, for $549 / mo with tax included in the payment (7% in NJ).

Thanks for looking and for your input. If anyone wants other #s I can simulate others. 3LT, Z06, etc. Just need, year, model, trans, etc.

As a kicker, I put in a 2012 C6, A6... 42K miles (keep in mind in 2020, there won't be a C8 out yet), so the C6 might be worth less due to the fact its a model change behind. KBB Trade in value is $30,296

Last edited by Z0Sick6; 05-06-2016 at 10:20 AM.
Old 05-06-2016, 10:34 AM
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AdamV
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I was thinking of doing that with an automatic 16 Z06 1lz. Can you run those?
I think I saw some one post that penfed does those type of loans. Could be wrong.
Old 05-06-2016, 10:35 AM
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AdamV
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Also, to answer your question, I think the car Can get you the 29k in a private sale. Dealer will try to get bottom dollar.
Old 05-06-2016, 10:59 AM
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Z0Sick6
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Originally Posted by AdamV
I was thinking of doing that with an automatic 16 Z06 1lz. Can you run those?
I think I saw some one post that penfed does those type of loans. Could be wrong.
I can run it.

I need the amount you are borrowing - so if the car is 85K and you put down 10K, then you tell me $75K... if its $88,430 with tax included and you want to put nothing down, then tell me $88,430. These make the most sense with no money out of pocket IMO and throwing tax in there too..

I need year, model, and trans, and if its used (can do 2014-Present. Used can go back 2 model years). Need the mileage of the car as well if its used.

Also, the term (months), can do 36, 48, 60... 60 will keep your payment the lowest.

Last edited by Z0Sick6; 05-06-2016 at 11:00 AM.
Old 05-06-2016, 11:24 AM
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AdamV
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I was thinking new z06. 2016 1lz auto. Given that I have a trade I save on the tax so I'll be at 84,525 w/ tax. I'd def do 60 months to keep it low like you said.
Old 05-06-2016, 11:35 AM
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Z0Sick6
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Originally Posted by AdamV
I was thinking new z06. 2016 1lz auto. Given that I have a trade I save on the tax so I'll be at 84,525 w/ tax. I'd def do 60 months to keep it low like you said.
Payment with tax is $903/month.

Final Payment
$38,953

Leasing a Z06 is like 1200-1300+ a month. Obviously if you get rid of it before 5 years, you will be able to see the current pay out as time goes on... First year might depreciate more than $903 a month, but definitely not 2nd year onward.
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Old 05-06-2016, 11:57 AM
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AdamV
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Thanks for running the numbers. Now to look into the car value crystal ball!
Old 05-06-2016, 12:53 PM
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SyberSaint
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Old 05-06-2016, 12:55 PM
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SyberSaint
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Originally Posted by Z0Sick6
Payment with tax is $903/month.

Final Payment
$38,953

Leasing a Z06 is like 1200-1300+ a month. Obviously if you get rid of it before 5 years, you will be able to see the current pay out as time goes on... First year might depreciate more than $903 a month, but definitely not 2nd year onward.
What kind of interest rates can someone get on a deal like that with an 840 credit score?

Thanks,
Syber
Old 05-06-2016, 01:00 PM
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direct007
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I think you will come out ok with the car worth at least the balloon balance.
Old 05-06-2016, 01:56 PM
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Z0Sick6
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Originally Posted by SyberSaint
What kind of interest rates can someone get on a deal like that with an 840 credit score?

Thanks,
Syber
For the balloon payment types of loans as seen in this thread.

New is 2.49%, Used (2014-2016) is 3.24%.

Excellent rates for this type of option to give buyers for cars that don't lease well but typically hold their value well at the 4-5+ year mark (which the corvette has historically done)
Old 05-06-2016, 02:13 PM
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jcp911s
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Ok, I don't understand... If MSRP is $58K, and "balloon" is $29K, then projected $29K of depreciation over 48 months is $604/mo... the $549 doesn't even cover the depreciation, let alone interest.

What are the actual terms of the "balloon" payment... something doesn't add up.
Old 05-06-2016, 02:22 PM
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Z0Sick6
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Originally Posted by jcp911s
Ok, I don't understand... If MSRP is $58K, and "balloon" is $29K, then projected $29K of depreciation over 48 months is $604/mo... the $549 doesn't even cover the depreciation, let alone interest.

What are the actual terms of the "balloon" payment... something doesn't add up.
That is the MSRP. Who is paying MSRP? That car can be bought for $48,740 + tax with the new rebate out + the 11% I have seen for 1LTs. If i plugged in the MSRP number the payment would be quite higher.

Last edited by Z0Sick6; 05-06-2016 at 02:25 PM.
Old 05-06-2016, 02:33 PM
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Corgidog1
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58144 msrp less 11% discount=51749 plus 7% tax= final cost of 55371 if you bought the car. VS.
lease of 549X48mos.=26352 plus balloon of 29197=55549 toal cost of lease after 4 yrs. Conclusion is better to lease in this situation as, although the finals costs are almost the same, you get to keep parts of you money longer and get investment income on.
Old 05-06-2016, 03:06 PM
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Z0Sick6
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Originally Posted by Corgidog1
58144 msrp less 11% discount=51749 plus 7% tax= final cost of 55371 if you bought the car. VS.
lease of 549X48mos.=26352 plus balloon of 29197=55549 toal cost of lease after 4 yrs. Conclusion is better to lease in this situation as, although the finals costs are almost the same, you get to keep parts of you money longer and get investment income on.
You can't lease a C7 with no money down 10-12k miles a year for $549, tax included. Lease payment is north of $825 for that configuration.
Old 05-06-2016, 03:47 PM
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jcp911s
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Originally Posted by Corgidog1
58144 msrp less 11% discount=51749 plus 7% tax= final cost of 55371 if you bought the car. VS.
lease of 549X48mos.=26352 plus balloon of 29197=55549 toal cost of lease after 4 yrs. Conclusion is better to lease in this situation as, although the finals costs are almost the same, you get to keep parts of you money longer and get investment income on.
OK, even assuming financed amount is $55.4K, a $29.2 "balloon" still implies a $545 monthly depreciation against a $549 payment.

Anyone who wants to lend me $55.4K for $4/mo, I'm all in.

There are pieces missing here.
Old 05-07-2016, 08:25 AM
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Corgidog1
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I was using the numbers the OP provided in his post without making a judgement on the validity of the numbers.
Old 05-07-2016, 08:42 AM
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chefcg1
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C7 of Year Finalist (performance mods) 2019

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I used my credit unions payment saver loan for my purchase, loan rate of 1.74%. For me it was the best way to go.
Old 05-07-2016, 08:45 AM
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LIStingray
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If a 4 years old C7 isn't worth 50% of MSRP, it would be pretty sad - most every regular car is worth between 45% and 65% of MSRP after 4 years and 48,000 miles

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