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I doubt that anyone on this forum today will see the end of internal combustion engines in their lifetime...
edit:.. or tires as often talked about because of flying car.
I was listening to the director's commentary for Back to the Future 2 and Bob Gale brought up an interesting point about flying cars in the future. If there are flying cars, in theory, could parts from a car at some point fall down and hit someone on the head? A little bit off topic but it was something that made me look at flying cars differently.
Nora Naughton, The Detroit News Published 2:37 p.m. ET Feb. 1, 2019 Updated 4:13 p.m. ET Feb. 1, 2019
GM's "regulatory investment" in gas- and diesel-powered engines is "largely done,"
In reassessing its workforce and manufacturing footprint, GM is hoping to reposition for a future that it sees as driverless and emission-free — even as it continues to weight its current vehicle lineup more heavily toward profit-rich pickups and SUVs.
The automaker already is diverting investments into electric and fuel-cell powered vehicles ahead of a push to introduce 20 emission-free vehicles by 2023.
It's not clear yet which departments will see the deepest cuts as GM carries out its involuntary severance program. But the automaker is continuing to aggressively hire in growing spaces like autonomy, mobility and electrification at the same time it moderates future investment in gas or diesel engines.
GM's "regulatory investment" in gas- and diesel-powered engines is "largely done," GM President Mark Reuss told The News on the sidelines of the Detroit auto show. He was elevated to second-in-command this year to lead the automaker's product-driven transformation.
GM has decided to go all electric.
That doesn't mean they made the right or best decision. Time will tell.
In my lifetime I've worked for four major companies. Not one of them is in that business today. All made decisions that seemed to be the best given the facts at that time that proved to be incorrect.
GM's "regulatory investment" in gas- and diesel-powered engines is "largely done,"
In reassessing its workforce and manufacturing footprint, GM is hoping to reposition for a future that it sees as driverless and emission-free — even as it continues to weight its current vehicle lineup more heavily toward profit-rich pickups and SUVs.
The automaker already is diverting investments into electric and fuel-cell powered vehicles ahead of a push to introduce 20 emission-free vehicles by 2023.
.
Yep Mary Barra said that when she announced closing assembly plants. May be a good "business decision" for GM. But they are pushing the problem of lower CO2 emissions to others!
Worked for the largest Industrial Gas company and they were going full blast to be a leader in Hydrogen supply in the 1980's for fuel cells predicted to be the future! Maybe they still are. It mostly comes from hydrocarbon waste gas streams from petrochemical crackers etc! Oh sure like in high school chem or physics lab it can be made from water! Yep that is by far the most energy inefficient way to do it! And where does all that electric power come from. Today in the US that's 80% from hydrocarbon fuels! Oh but we are switching to solar power! Yep you can subsidize those installations BUT the electric utilities still have to build capacity so when it's raining in LA for 2 days you can sill operate your EV! (Daughter and extended family just outside of LA, just added $70,000 worth of solar power! But is was raining steady for 2 days!) CA's now bankrupt power company has to have enough capacity to allow those LA EV's to drive! Guess each home owner could add emergency capacity generators!
SIDE BAR
I smile as my business revolves around a gas that is in short supply, Argon. It's less than 1% of the air (0.93%) and is produced by liquefying air and distilling it out along with Nitrogen and Oxygen. It's over twice the amount of CO2 in air (which is 0.04% rounded up!) But Argon gets no publicity!
Times change and peoples preferences change. I'm old enough to remember when people believed the advertisements that stated that cigarettes were healthy.
There is nothing wrong with being idealistic......
'Most believe that a satisfactory future requires a return to an idealized past, a past which never in fact existed.'
Frank Herbert, author of the Dune series
Thats right. Just like the manual transmission, it too shall never die.
It might die eventually, but probably not before it can't be made more efficient, and if you follow closely, you find out the i-c-e keeps getting better.
There is a few issue before the adoption of electric car goes mainstream :
1. Cost of acquisition is still higher than gas powered car
2. Electric charging station infrastructure
3. Time to recharge the battery.
All things that can be solved but in the way of progress.
I agree, there are a few hurdles. I recently read an article that cold weather can cut the battery range by 40%... Parts of the US & world still gets pretty cold. It appears that some of the data boosting range might be skewed.
It might die eventually, but probably not before it can't be made more efficient, and if you follow closely, you find out the i-c-e keeps getting better.
The enthusiast in me wants to agree. The pragmatist in me chuckles at that thought.
About 15 years ago I thought exactly the same about manual transmissions. Back then, manuals were transitioning into 6 speeds, while most auto came in 4 speed flavors. People were saying the days of the manuals are numbered because new 6 speed autos were on the horizon. I made the same exact arguments. Manuals have been around for 60+ years, and it's always stayed ahead of autos in innovation, performance, cost, and efficiency. It will NEVER be replaced as long as enthusiasts demand better performance, better efficiency, and better driving experience. Heck I even argued that people were predicting the demise of manuals 20, 30, 50 years ago when autos made each and every technological leap (4 speed, over-drive, locking clutch in torque converters...etc)
15 years later, manual transmission is TRULY on the verge of extinction that it's now become a meme about "millennial theft devices." You ask me 15 years ago, knowing what I know then? I would tell you absolutely that this isn't true. But it is. Manuals are now less than 5% of the current sales market share, when just as little as 20 years ago the MAJORITY of cars sold in ROW are manuals.
Technologies change fast, paradigm shifts happen even faster. Again, 15 years ago when manuals were 6 speeds, and autos were predominantly 4 speeds, you can easily argue that no way manuals would be replaced. 10-25% lighter, better gearing, better performance, less parasitic drivetrain loss. Sure it's harder to operate, but for those of us initiated, it's no harder to drive a manual daily than it is to drive an auto. The only benefit to an auto, the joke used to be, was that you can apply make-up as you drive (implying it's a WOMAN's transmission of choice).
Then 6 speed autos, and quickly 8 and 10 speed autos followed, along with the close ratio transmissions they improved the locking clutches, valve bodies, and the speed that it shifts. All of a sudden within 2 generations of technology manuals were the dinosaurs. It lost the performance edge, efficiency edge, and with paddle shifters and DCT the engagement factor had closed dramatically.
2 automotive technology generations. 15 years. Went from the superior, predominant tech to absolute irrelevance.
Who'd predicted THAT?
The enthusiast in me wants to agree. The pragmatist in me chuckles at that thought.
About 15 years ago I thought exactly the same about manual transmissions. Back then, manuals were transitioning into 6 speeds, while most auto came in 4 speed flavors. People were saying the days of the manuals are numbered because new 6 speed autos were on the horizon. I made the same exact arguments. Manuals have been around for 60+ years, and it's always stayed ahead of autos in innovation, performance, cost, and efficiency. It will NEVER be replaced as long as enthusiasts demand better performance, better efficiency, and better driving experience. Heck I even argued that people were predicting the demise of manuals 20, 30, 50 years ago when autos made each and every technological leap (4 speed, over-drive, locking clutch in torque converters...etc)
15 years later, manual transmission is TRULY on the verge of extinction that it's now become a meme about "millennial theft devices." You ask me 15 years ago, knowing what I know then? I would tell you absolutely that this isn't true. But it is. Manuals are now less than 5% of the current sales market share, when just as little as 20 years ago the MAJORITY of cars sold in ROW are manuals.
Technologies change fast, paradigm shifts happen even faster. Again, 15 years ago when manuals were 6 speeds, and autos were predominantly 4 speeds, you can easily argue that no way manuals would be replaced. 10-25% lighter, better gearing, better performance, less parasitic drivetrain loss. Sure it's harder to operate, but for those of us initiated, it's no harder to drive a manual daily than it is to drive an auto. The only benefit to an auto, the joke used to be, was that you can apply make-up as you drive (implying it's a WOMAN's transmission of choice).
Then 6 speed autos, and quickly 8 and 10 speed autos followed, along with the close ratio transmissions they improved the locking clutches, valve bodies, and the speed that it shifts. All of a sudden within 2 generations of technology manuals were the dinosaurs. It lost the performance edge, efficiency edge, and with paddle shifters and DCT the engagement factor had closed dramatically.
2 automotive technology generations. 15 years. Went from the superior, predominant tech to absolute irrelevance.
Who'd predicted THAT?
Yeah I get it, my point is that the electric car thing has been circulated as a replacement for the I-c-e engine for many.many years. It hasn't happened though, because in spite of the fact you can eliminate the entire fuel system, the cooling system, and the transmission, an electric car is inferior to a combustion engine car, and its going to stay that way until you can charge one completely in 2-5 minutes.
02-06-2019, 02:05 PM
7 Reasons Internal Combustion Engines are Not Going Away
