GM says they are going 100% electric
10-10-2017, 07:48 PM
#21
Le Mans Master
{Excuse me for the humor.....}
Just thing, with a flick of a switch, you can change the sound of your all electric Corvette from mild push rod V8, to a DOHC Ferrari V8, to a V12, or any other sound you may have recorded in the past.
Just thing, with a flick of a switch, you can change the sound of your all electric Corvette from mild push rod V8, to a DOHC Ferrari V8, to a V12, or any other sound you may have recorded in the past.
10-10-2017, 10:25 PM
#22
Safety Car
Member Since: Feb 2016
Location: Bainbridge Island WA
Posts: 4,980
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Absolutely True, the load on the grids from 7:00 pm to midnight would be huge... and as far as solar goes, the sun don't shine much during that time. Besides, since oil is NOT a fossil fuel, contrary to one of the many lies that we are feed, it's still much more economically advantageous to use gasoline.
Today, the new Dutch government presented its detailed plan for the coming years and it includes making all new cars emission-free by 2030 -- virtually banning petrol- and diesel-powered cars in favor of battery-powered vehicles. The four coalition parties have been negotiating their plans since the election in March and now after over 200 days, they have finally released the plan they agreed upon. NL Times posted all the main points of the plan and in "transportation," it includes: By 2030 all cars in the Netherlands must be emission free. While some local publications are reporting "all cars," we are told that it would be for "all new cars" as it is the case for the countries with similar bans under consideration. The potential for the ban has been under consideration in the country since last year. The year 2025, like in Norway, has been mentioned, but they apparently decided for the less ambitious goal of 2030.
Like I said earlier: Ten years (or so). Do you honestly think California won't follow suit? The EU will do it. China will do it, and though we may be pulled kicking and screaming into it, so will we.
10-11-2017, 11:26 AM
#23
Team Owner
but the loads from Midnight to 7:00 am would not be. And it doesn't matter of the sun does not shine at night, daylight hours' electricity can be easily stored--at home, no large industrial complex needed. the 'oil as fossil fuel" argument is an interesting one, too complex for here, just like climate change lies, but that's not the issue. To wit:
From Slashdot.https://tech.slashdot.org/story/17/1...l-cars-by-2030[/I]
Like I said earlier: Ten years (or so). Do you honestly think California won't follow suit? The EU will do it. China will do it, and though we may be pulled kicking and screaming into it, so will we.
From Slashdot.https://tech.slashdot.org/story/17/1...l-cars-by-2030[/I]
Like I said earlier: Ten years (or so). Do you honestly think California won't follow suit? The EU will do it. China will do it, and though we may be pulled kicking and screaming into it, so will we.
With my four ICE vehicles, my 200 amp service from my local "industrial complex" allows me to not worry about having enough electricity to handle my "in-home" needs as I get gasoline for my cars from an "industrial complex" that is already built and paid for. I don't need to spend tens of thousands of dollars to generate electricity and then store it at my home, as there is already a huge "industrial complex" that supplies my home's electrical requirements and then there already is a huge "industrial complex" that supplies my gasoline requirements for my automobiles.
An"industrial complex" that is generating electricity 24/7 and supplying electricity to tens of thousands of homes can be less expensive even though it is burning coal or natural gas.
A lot of people DO NOT live in large single family homes with large roofs with garages, in large subdivisions with space to have "batteries" to store their "personal electricity", or a way to get the electricity from their "personal batteries" to their EV every night.
100% EV's is a farce.
Last edited by JoesC5; 10-11-2017 at 11:42 AM.
10-11-2017, 11:56 AM
#24
Melting Slicks
A few writings on the wall:
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
Last edited by quick04Z06; 10-11-2017 at 12:19 PM.
10-11-2017, 12:28 PM
#25
Team Owner
A few writings on the wall:
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
I just hope they don't install a huge solar farm that will cover my grave, in my family cemetery.
10-11-2017, 02:37 PM
#26
Pro
The points about the strain on the electric grid are well taken. But the big gorilla in the room that environmentalists seem to ignore about battery-powered cars is this: What happens to all those millions and millions of batteries once they reach the end of their useful lives? How are they disposed of? What about the heavy metals they contain that have the potential to significantly contaminate groundwater? How much energy will be required to recycle those heavy metals as well as other dangerous chemicals in the batteries to avoid contamination of the environment? When every automobile on the the planet uses batteries, this will become a significant problem.
On the other hand, the hydrogen fuel cell seems much more promising. Hydrogen is easily collected by using electricity to split hydrogen atoms from oxygen atoms in water. The hydrogen fuel cell then uses a catalyst to bond those hydrogen atoms to oxygen atoms from the air, a chemical process that produces energy. The resulting energy is used to produce electricity, which drives the vehicle's electric motor. No batteries required and the only byproduct is water.
In theory, you could produce hydrogen at home using grid electricity or an alternative energy source such as solar or wind. Likewise, refueling stations might be able to produce some or all of their supply onsite.
Fueling up with hydrogen would be much like refueling with gasoline. There are already hydrogen fueling stations in California with more on the way. This solves the range problem, as well as the issue of refueling time.
The big issue with hydrogen is it's highly volatile nature. There are, however, existing technologies to mitigate that and there are likely to be more solutions on the horizon.
Perhaps someone on the forum who is a chemical engineer could offer more insight about the makeup and disposal of hydrogen fuel cells.
Your thoughts?
On the other hand, the hydrogen fuel cell seems much more promising. Hydrogen is easily collected by using electricity to split hydrogen atoms from oxygen atoms in water. The hydrogen fuel cell then uses a catalyst to bond those hydrogen atoms to oxygen atoms from the air, a chemical process that produces energy. The resulting energy is used to produce electricity, which drives the vehicle's electric motor. No batteries required and the only byproduct is water.
In theory, you could produce hydrogen at home using grid electricity or an alternative energy source such as solar or wind. Likewise, refueling stations might be able to produce some or all of their supply onsite.
Fueling up with hydrogen would be much like refueling with gasoline. There are already hydrogen fueling stations in California with more on the way. This solves the range problem, as well as the issue of refueling time.
The big issue with hydrogen is it's highly volatile nature. There are, however, existing technologies to mitigate that and there are likely to be more solutions on the horizon.
Perhaps someone on the forum who is a chemical engineer could offer more insight about the makeup and disposal of hydrogen fuel cells.
Your thoughts?
Last edited by Stingray Sam; 10-11-2017 at 02:39 PM.
10-11-2017, 03:20 PM
#27
A few writings on the wall:
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
10-11-2017, 04:22 PM
#28
Race Director
Member Since: Mar 2001
Location: Bonneville Salt Flats, 223mph Aug. '04
Posts: 17,381
Received 5,188 Likes
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I'm sure everyone is... sometime.
10-11-2017, 04:36 PM
#29
Melting Slicks
The end game IMO is going to induction charging built into roads.
This of course is not anywhere near short term but the article is talking about future technologies of one type and saying it can't be done. With induction charging it could be done right now. We literally have the technology and only have to put it in place. As EV's gain popularity and the cost of the technology comes down something will be put in place.
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/high...r-vehicle.html
One of the things people really don't like to discuss is how much more convenient charging a daily driver at the house, over night, is. There are no special trips to the gas station. No worries about needing anything for the vehicle on all of your in town trips. That's MOST of everyone's driving. Sensationalizing the few long distance trips you might take in a given year over the 99 percent of actual driving people do gets pretty funny.
10-11-2017, 04:46 PM
#30
Melting Slicks
The points about the strain on the electric grid are well taken. But the big gorilla in the room that environmentalists seem to ignore about battery-powered cars is this: What happens to all those millions and millions of batteries once they reach the end of their useful lives? How are they disposed of? What about the heavy metals they contain that have the potential to significantly contaminate groundwater? How much energy will be required to recycle those heavy metals as well as other dangerous chemicals in the batteries to avoid contamination of the environment? When every automobile on the the planet uses batteries, this will become a significant problem.
On the other hand, the hydrogen fuel cell seems much more promising. Hydrogen is easily collected by using electricity to split hydrogen atoms from oxygen atoms in water. The hydrogen fuel cell then uses a catalyst to bond those hydrogen atoms to oxygen atoms from the air, a chemical process that produces energy. The resulting energy is used to produce electricity, which drives the vehicle's electric motor. No batteries required and the only byproduct is water.
In theory, you could produce hydrogen at home using grid electricity or an alternative energy source such as solar or wind. Likewise, refueling stations might be able to produce some or all of their supply onsite.
Fueling up with hydrogen would be much like refueling with gasoline. There are already hydrogen fueling stations in California with more on the way. This solves the range problem, as well as the issue of refueling time.
The big issue with hydrogen is it's highly volatile nature. There are, however, existing technologies to mitigate that and there are likely to be more solutions on the horizon.
Perhaps someone on the forum who is a chemical engineer could offer more insight about the makeup and disposal of hydrogen fuel cells.
Your thoughts?
On the other hand, the hydrogen fuel cell seems much more promising. Hydrogen is easily collected by using electricity to split hydrogen atoms from oxygen atoms in water. The hydrogen fuel cell then uses a catalyst to bond those hydrogen atoms to oxygen atoms from the air, a chemical process that produces energy. The resulting energy is used to produce electricity, which drives the vehicle's electric motor. No batteries required and the only byproduct is water.
In theory, you could produce hydrogen at home using grid electricity or an alternative energy source such as solar or wind. Likewise, refueling stations might be able to produce some or all of their supply onsite.
Fueling up with hydrogen would be much like refueling with gasoline. There are already hydrogen fueling stations in California with more on the way. This solves the range problem, as well as the issue of refueling time.
The big issue with hydrogen is it's highly volatile nature. There are, however, existing technologies to mitigate that and there are likely to be more solutions on the horizon.
Perhaps someone on the forum who is a chemical engineer could offer more insight about the makeup and disposal of hydrogen fuel cells.
Your thoughts?
The first pass on battery recycling is actually battery reusing. A battery that drops to 80 percent of its original capacity may not be suitable for a vehicle anymore because of range limitations. However... If you have a solar setup at your house a used car battery may be just fine. Space and weight are far less of a concern and money talks. A 60kWh Chevy Bolt battery will still have 48kWh or more when it hits the resale market. Right now that's worth thousands to a homeowner with solar.
Once they are finally used up they can be recycled, but that time frame seems very far off at this point.
10-11-2017, 10:51 PM
#31
First to the op, Gm has said that they will be releasing 18 additional electric models by 2023. For starters, that doesn't mean the end of gas in all of their vehicles. Secondly, I also heard that about 10 models are going to china, leaving only 8 more for the US, so 2-3 for Chevy, 2-3 for Cadillac, 2-3 for Buick, etc... So They are not going away immediately but expect in 15 years or so for the gas models to be rapidly becoming rare or almost gone away completely
I have seen you post your thoughts on electric and autonomous vehicles in the past and while I can agree with a lot of your electric views, your autonomous views I think are pretty wrong. Not many people agree with your banning of manual driving.
For starters, manufactures are not doing that. If you ignore google’s car, the overwhelming majority of the future concepts shown off by the auto manufacturers have had the option for a human to drive in addition to their self driving capabilities. Actually I can only think of 3 concepts that didn’t have a steering wheel and they are rolls royce, the mercedes sub brand smart, and Audi. All three ether have a good reason for being only self driving (rolls because you know.... it’s rolls), have one specific purpose (smart said its car is for a ride sharing fleet only and won’t even be sold to private customers), or are as a optional alternative to their other concepts for people that want a self driving only car (Audi). In addition to that, both Mercedes and Audi revealed other concepts with human driving as an option at the same event that to showed their previously mentioned no human driving concepts and have many others that they have shown at other events which all have driving as an option. All other concepts have had human driving as an option, even the ones that the companies see being sold 30-40 years from now. There have been several car company CEO’s that have said you will still have the option to drive as well as a large panel of auto industry experts.
On top of that, a survey was conducted by kelly blue book on what consumers want, which is arguably by far the most important factor in this, on what they want:
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/download/K...dy+-+FINAL.pdf
The only data point that suggest otherwise in that study is the young gen z group which is still only 38% that want level 5, but as they get older and experience the joy, utility, and freedom of being able to drive, the number will certainly go down as that group is currently 12-15 years old and haven't even began to learn to drive or experience driving. But even if it doesn't, its still only 38% and you have the older generations that really don't want it. As you can see in the study, overall level 4 autonomy (fully autonomous + option to human drive) is by far the most appealing to the people.
As far as autonomous and human driving not being able to work together or the appeal of self-driving being no accidents, there is a simple solution to this that allows humans to continue to drive. If a vehicle is level 4, then it has all of the necessary hardware and software to be fully self driving and just as safe as level 5. That means you can have it so when in manual driving mode the systems that are in play when the computer is driving, can still be in play when the human is driving, ready to turn on if the person is about to cause an accident. Basically like driver assistance of co-pilot on steroids. You try to do something like change lanes at the wrong time and the computer knows it would cause an accident, it simply wont let you do it. You may get frustrated when it first does it but when you see why it stopped you, you will be grateful. An example of this on a smaller scale is with the new Audi A8. The A8 has side detection and if a car, pedestrian, or cyclist, etc is coming up on the side of the car when you are parked, it won't let you open the door until it passes. Simply do that with the rest of the safety features. As far as speeding, with full autonomous tech the speed limits could be greatly raised or eliminated all together (at least on hwys, so most 50mph and up roads) and each vehicle have its own speed limit depending on how capable each individual vehicle is. This would allow all cars, computer controlled and human controlled alike, to "speed" and still be safe. When you think about it, as sports car lovers it would be amazing.
Also price: $250k? haha are your serious? why? Tesla offers all the hardware for that right now for like $8-9k (idk I can't remember exactly but it around that). It won't be anywhere near $250k, no reason to be. People that live outside of just the very big city centers will continue to own their car
On the electric side of things, I can agree that within the next 15-20 years new gas cars will be almost completely gone. The only thing I hope for is that the aftermarket of electric will build quickly and that we can keep our existing gas cars. Also to go along with that, that gas wont be completely impossible to find and we wont have to drive a long distance to get it.
A few writings on the wall:
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
When we go to autonomous vehicles, all manually driven cars will be banned from public roads. No way the two can coexist. Part of the selling feature of autonomous vehicles is few wrecks, no body work, very few deaths, no speeding, etc. For all of this to happen, our freedom of travel outside of this new paradigm must go. Sea change. (Remember, you can keep you own doctor. Ahem.)
Of course, big brother will know where we are 24/7, to the extent they do not already.
We will not own many individual cars. We will ride share and call up autonomous cars from our phones. When we are dropped off, the car will go ferry someone else. Cars will be much more expensive (all the new tech) and will in effect by high-tech taxis.
Because the number of cars will drop so much, we will not need as much grid power as you might think (and power can be stored in batts or capacitors). Instead of selling 12 million cars a year in the USA at an average of 35K, they will sell a million at an average of 250K to ride sharing companies. A handful will go to individuals. Cars will not sit all day in a parking lot. Huge parking lots, overcrowded streets, etc., will go away.
Professional drivers (trucks, buses, etc.)? Hard to say, but many may keep their jobs as nannies until the system inevitably hiccups from time-to-time. Trains have been like this for some time.
So, the global silliness grows exponentially. We will be relieved of our cars so the world moves toward a unified, monolithic way to live our daily lives. Corporate and national borders continue to dissolve. Oh, boy....
Hang on to your old Corvettes. You can still trailer them behind an autonomous vehicle to the racetrack for some fun, I should think.
Oh. P.S. This will spell the end of the petrodollar and dollar hegemony. While petrochemicals will still be a big deal, the centrality of oil to the global economy will drop (and hence the ability of the US to almost print money at will with low inflation to fund the oil economy) and the centrality of rare earth minerals (for batts) will go way up. China, home to most of the rare earth minerals, to the extent they are not already, will be the world's biggest dog and their currency (or a market basket of currencies, most likely) will supplant the dollar as the world's reserve currency and marker for transactions. Big suck-age for us, but many nations have been just waiting and hoping for this day to arrive.... and China has probably bought off a lot of them. Heck, China has probably "paid" GM to go all-electric, which was the OP's original point.
For starters, manufactures are not doing that. If you ignore google’s car, the overwhelming majority of the future concepts shown off by the auto manufacturers have had the option for a human to drive in addition to their self driving capabilities. Actually I can only think of 3 concepts that didn’t have a steering wheel and they are rolls royce, the mercedes sub brand smart, and Audi. All three ether have a good reason for being only self driving (rolls because you know.... it’s rolls), have one specific purpose (smart said its car is for a ride sharing fleet only and won’t even be sold to private customers), or are as a optional alternative to their other concepts for people that want a self driving only car (Audi). In addition to that, both Mercedes and Audi revealed other concepts with human driving as an option at the same event that to showed their previously mentioned no human driving concepts and have many others that they have shown at other events which all have driving as an option. All other concepts have had human driving as an option, even the ones that the companies see being sold 30-40 years from now. There have been several car company CEO’s that have said you will still have the option to drive as well as a large panel of auto industry experts.
On top of that, a survey was conducted by kelly blue book on what consumers want, which is arguably by far the most important factor in this, on what they want:
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/download/K...dy+-+FINAL.pdf
The only data point that suggest otherwise in that study is the young gen z group which is still only 38% that want level 5, but as they get older and experience the joy, utility, and freedom of being able to drive, the number will certainly go down as that group is currently 12-15 years old and haven't even began to learn to drive or experience driving. But even if it doesn't, its still only 38% and you have the older generations that really don't want it. As you can see in the study, overall level 4 autonomy (fully autonomous + option to human drive) is by far the most appealing to the people.
As far as autonomous and human driving not being able to work together or the appeal of self-driving being no accidents, there is a simple solution to this that allows humans to continue to drive. If a vehicle is level 4, then it has all of the necessary hardware and software to be fully self driving and just as safe as level 5. That means you can have it so when in manual driving mode the systems that are in play when the computer is driving, can still be in play when the human is driving, ready to turn on if the person is about to cause an accident. Basically like driver assistance of co-pilot on steroids. You try to do something like change lanes at the wrong time and the computer knows it would cause an accident, it simply wont let you do it. You may get frustrated when it first does it but when you see why it stopped you, you will be grateful. An example of this on a smaller scale is with the new Audi A8. The A8 has side detection and if a car, pedestrian, or cyclist, etc is coming up on the side of the car when you are parked, it won't let you open the door until it passes. Simply do that with the rest of the safety features. As far as speeding, with full autonomous tech the speed limits could be greatly raised or eliminated all together (at least on hwys, so most 50mph and up roads) and each vehicle have its own speed limit depending on how capable each individual vehicle is. This would allow all cars, computer controlled and human controlled alike, to "speed" and still be safe. When you think about it, as sports car lovers it would be amazing.
Also price: $250k? haha are your serious? why? Tesla offers all the hardware for that right now for like $8-9k (idk I can't remember exactly but it around that). It won't be anywhere near $250k, no reason to be. People that live outside of just the very big city centers will continue to own their car
On the electric side of things, I can agree that within the next 15-20 years new gas cars will be almost completely gone. The only thing I hope for is that the aftermarket of electric will build quickly and that we can keep our existing gas cars. Also to go along with that, that gas wont be completely impossible to find and we wont have to drive a long distance to get it.
Last edited by theboom; 10-12-2017 at 12:33 AM.
10-15-2017, 07:43 PM
#32
Safety Car
We cannot produce affordable electricity in America any more. Tree huggers and enviro-****s won’t allow it. So we are intentionally building extremely expensive, high maintenance, and unreliable electrical generation systems because we are sheeples easily led down whatever path government control freaks and anarchists lead us into. We simply don’t have the generation capabilities to go to all electric without bankrupting our entire economy. (Which may be the point)
And Tesla shouldn’t even exist so let’s not talk about that wealth redistribution in the name of the church of environmentalism scam.
Wouldn’t gm selling more electric cars increase their overall CAFE average and give them a little more freedom to have gas guzzling trucks and v8 sports cars in the lineup? Isn’t that why they would really do such a thing?
And Tesla shouldn’t even exist so let’s not talk about that wealth redistribution in the name of the church of environmentalism scam.
Wouldn’t gm selling more electric cars increase their overall CAFE average and give them a little more freedom to have gas guzzling trucks and v8 sports cars in the lineup? Isn’t that why they would really do such a thing?
10-15-2017, 07:59 PM
#33
Thank you for sharing your unasked for political POV.
10-15-2017, 08:41 PM
#34
Racer
Thread Starter
Member Since: Aug 2017
Location: Winterville North Carolina
Posts: 413
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First to the op, Gm has said that they will be releasing 18 additional electric models by 2023. For starters, that doesn't mean the end of gas in all of their vehicles. Secondly, I also heard that about 10 models are going to china, leaving only 8 more for the US, so 2-3 for Chevy, 2-3 for Cadillac, 2-3 for Buick, etc... So They are not going away immediately but expect in 15 years or so for the gas models to be rapidly becoming rare or almost gone away completely
I have seen you post your thoughts on electric and autonomous vehicles in the past and while I can agree with a lot of your electric views, your autonomous views I think are pretty wrong. Not many people agree with your banning of manual driving.
For starters, manufactures are not doing that. If you ignore google’s car, the overwhelming majority of the future concepts shown off by the auto manufacturers have had the option for a human to drive in addition to their self driving capabilities. Actually I can only think of 3 concepts that didn’t have a steering wheel and they are rolls royce, the mercedes sub brand smart, and Audi. All three ether have a good reason for being only self driving (rolls because you know.... it’s rolls), have one specific purpose (smart said its car is for a ride sharing fleet only and won’t even be sold to private customers), or are as a optional alternative to their other concepts for people that want a self driving only car (Audi). In addition to that, both Mercedes and Audi revealed other concepts with human driving as an option at the same event that to showed their previously mentioned no human driving concepts and have many others that they have shown at other events which all have driving as an option. All other concepts have had human driving as an option, even the ones that the companies see being sold 30-40 years from now. There have been several car company CEO’s that have said you will still have the option to drive as well as a large panel of auto industry experts.
On top of that, a survey was conducted by kelly blue book on what consumers want, which is arguably by far the most important factor in this, on what they want:
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/download/K...dy+-+FINAL.pdf
The only data point that suggest otherwise in that study is the young gen z group which is still only 38% that want level 5, but as they get older and experience the joy, utility, and freedom of being able to drive, the number will certainly go down as that group is currently 12-15 years old and haven't even began to learn to drive or experience driving. But even if it doesn't, its still only 38% and you have the older generations that really don't want it. As you can see in the study, overall level 4 autonomy (fully autonomous + option to human drive) is by far the most appealing to the people.
As far as autonomous and human driving not being able to work together or the appeal of self-driving being no accidents, there is a simple solution to this that allows humans to continue to drive. If a vehicle is level 4, then it has all of the necessary hardware and software to be fully self driving and just as safe as level 5. That means you can have it so when in manual driving mode the systems that are in play when the computer is driving, can still be in play when the human is driving, ready to turn on if the person is about to cause an accident. Basically like driver assistance of co-pilot on steroids. You try to do something like change lanes at the wrong time and the computer knows it would cause an accident, it simply wont let you do it. You may get frustrated when it first does it but when you see why it stopped you, you will be grateful. An example of this on a smaller scale is with the new Audi A8. The A8 has side detection and if a car, pedestrian, or cyclist, etc is coming up on the side of the car when you are parked, it won't let you open the door until it passes. Simply do that with the rest of the safety features. As far as speeding, with full autonomous tech the speed limits could be greatly raised or eliminated all together (at least on hwys, so most 50mph and up roads) and each vehicle have its own speed limit depending on how capable each individual vehicle is. This would allow all cars, computer controlled and human controlled alike, to "speed" and still be safe. When you think about it, as sports car lovers it would be amazing.
Also price: $250k? haha are your serious? why? Tesla offers all the hardware for that right now for like $8-9k (idk I can't remember exactly but it around that). It won't be anywhere near $250k, no reason to be. People that live outside of just the very big city centers will continue to own their car
On the electric side of things, I can agree that within the next 15-20 years new gas cars will be almost completely gone. The only thing I hope for is that the aftermarket of electric will build quickly and that we can keep our existing gas cars. Also to go along with that, that gas wont be completely impossible to find and we wont have to drive a long distance to get it.
I have seen you post your thoughts on electric and autonomous vehicles in the past and while I can agree with a lot of your electric views, your autonomous views I think are pretty wrong. Not many people agree with your banning of manual driving.
For starters, manufactures are not doing that. If you ignore google’s car, the overwhelming majority of the future concepts shown off by the auto manufacturers have had the option for a human to drive in addition to their self driving capabilities. Actually I can only think of 3 concepts that didn’t have a steering wheel and they are rolls royce, the mercedes sub brand smart, and Audi. All three ether have a good reason for being only self driving (rolls because you know.... it’s rolls), have one specific purpose (smart said its car is for a ride sharing fleet only and won’t even be sold to private customers), or are as a optional alternative to their other concepts for people that want a self driving only car (Audi). In addition to that, both Mercedes and Audi revealed other concepts with human driving as an option at the same event that to showed their previously mentioned no human driving concepts and have many others that they have shown at other events which all have driving as an option. All other concepts have had human driving as an option, even the ones that the companies see being sold 30-40 years from now. There have been several car company CEO’s that have said you will still have the option to drive as well as a large panel of auto industry experts.
On top of that, a survey was conducted by kelly blue book on what consumers want, which is arguably by far the most important factor in this, on what they want:
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/download/K...dy+-+FINAL.pdf
The only data point that suggest otherwise in that study is the young gen z group which is still only 38% that want level 5, but as they get older and experience the joy, utility, and freedom of being able to drive, the number will certainly go down as that group is currently 12-15 years old and haven't even began to learn to drive or experience driving. But even if it doesn't, its still only 38% and you have the older generations that really don't want it. As you can see in the study, overall level 4 autonomy (fully autonomous + option to human drive) is by far the most appealing to the people.
As far as autonomous and human driving not being able to work together or the appeal of self-driving being no accidents, there is a simple solution to this that allows humans to continue to drive. If a vehicle is level 4, then it has all of the necessary hardware and software to be fully self driving and just as safe as level 5. That means you can have it so when in manual driving mode the systems that are in play when the computer is driving, can still be in play when the human is driving, ready to turn on if the person is about to cause an accident. Basically like driver assistance of co-pilot on steroids. You try to do something like change lanes at the wrong time and the computer knows it would cause an accident, it simply wont let you do it. You may get frustrated when it first does it but when you see why it stopped you, you will be grateful. An example of this on a smaller scale is with the new Audi A8. The A8 has side detection and if a car, pedestrian, or cyclist, etc is coming up on the side of the car when you are parked, it won't let you open the door until it passes. Simply do that with the rest of the safety features. As far as speeding, with full autonomous tech the speed limits could be greatly raised or eliminated all together (at least on hwys, so most 50mph and up roads) and each vehicle have its own speed limit depending on how capable each individual vehicle is. This would allow all cars, computer controlled and human controlled alike, to "speed" and still be safe. When you think about it, as sports car lovers it would be amazing.
Also price: $250k? haha are your serious? why? Tesla offers all the hardware for that right now for like $8-9k (idk I can't remember exactly but it around that). It won't be anywhere near $250k, no reason to be. People that live outside of just the very big city centers will continue to own their car
On the electric side of things, I can agree that within the next 15-20 years new gas cars will be almost completely gone. The only thing I hope for is that the aftermarket of electric will build quickly and that we can keep our existing gas cars. Also to go along with that, that gas wont be completely impossible to find and we wont have to drive a long distance to get it.
10-16-2017, 12:46 PM
#35
Le Mans Master
Originally Posted by Dalannex
We cannot produce affordable electricity in America any more. Tree huggers and enviro-****s won’t allow it. So we are intentionally building extremely expensive, high maintenance, and unreliable electrical generation systems because we are sheeples easily led down whatever path government control freaks and anarchists lead us into. We simply don’t have the generation capabilities to go to all electric without bankrupting our entire economy. (Which may be the point)
And Tesla shouldn’t even exist so let’s not talk about that wealth redistribution in the name of the church of environmentalism scam.
Wouldn’t gm selling more electric cars increase their overall CAFE average and give them a little more freedom to have gas guzzling trucks and v8 sports cars in the lineup? Isn’t that why they would really do such a thing?
And Tesla shouldn’t even exist so let’s not talk about that wealth redistribution in the name of the church of environmentalism scam.
Wouldn’t gm selling more electric cars increase their overall CAFE average and give them a little more freedom to have gas guzzling trucks and v8 sports cars in the lineup? Isn’t that why they would really do such a thing?
10-16-2017, 03:14 PM
#36
Melting Slicks
First to the op, Gm has said that they will be releasing 18 additional electric models by 2023. For starters, that doesn't mean the end of gas in all of their vehicles. Secondly, I also heard that about 10 models are going to china, leaving only 8 more for the US, so 2-3 for Chevy, 2-3 for Cadillac, 2-3 for Buick, etc... So They are not going away immediately but expect in 15 years or so for the gas models to be rapidly becoming rare or almost gone away completely
I have seen you post your thoughts on electric and autonomous vehicles in the past and while I can agree with a lot of your electric views, your autonomous views I think are pretty wrong. Not many people agree with your banning of manual driving.
For starters, manufactures are not doing that. If you ignore google’s car, the overwhelming majority of the future concepts shown off by the auto manufacturers have had the option for a human to drive in addition to their self driving capabilities. Actually I can only think of 3 concepts that didn’t have a steering wheel and they are rolls royce, the mercedes sub brand smart, and Audi. All three ether have a good reason for being only self driving (rolls because you know.... it’s rolls), have one specific purpose (smart said its car is for a ride sharing fleet only and won’t even be sold to private customers), or are as a optional alternative to their other concepts for people that want a self driving only car (Audi). In addition to that, both Mercedes and Audi revealed other concepts with human driving as an option at the same event that to showed their previously mentioned no human driving concepts and have many others that they have shown at other events which all have driving as an option. All other concepts have had human driving as an option, even the ones that the companies see being sold 30-40 years from now. There have been several car company CEO’s that have said you will still have the option to drive as well as a large panel of auto industry experts.
On top of that, a survey was conducted by kelly blue book on what consumers want, which is arguably by far the most important factor in this, on what they want:
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/download/K...dy+-+FINAL.pdf
The only data point that suggest otherwise in that study is the young gen z group which is still only 38% that want level 5, but as they get older and experience the joy, utility, and freedom of being able to drive, the number will certainly go down as that group is currently 12-15 years old and haven't even began to learn to drive or experience driving. But even if it doesn't, its still only 38% and you have the older generations that really don't want it. As you can see in the study, overall level 4 autonomy (fully autonomous + option to human drive) is by far the most appealing to the people.
As far as autonomous and human driving not being able to work together or the appeal of self-driving being no accidents, there is a simple solution to this that allows humans to continue to drive. If a vehicle is level 4, then it has all of the necessary hardware and software to be fully self driving and just as safe as level 5. That means you can have it so when in manual driving mode the systems that are in play when the computer is driving, can still be in play when the human is driving, ready to turn on if the person is about to cause an accident. Basically like driver assistance of co-pilot on steroids. You try to do something like change lanes at the wrong time and the computer knows it would cause an accident, it simply wont let you do it. You may get frustrated when it first does it but when you see why it stopped you, you will be grateful. An example of this on a smaller scale is with the new Audi A8. The A8 has side detection and if a car, pedestrian, or cyclist, etc is coming up on the side of the car when you are parked, it won't let you open the door until it passes. Simply do that with the rest of the safety features. As far as speeding, with full autonomous tech the speed limits could be greatly raised or eliminated all together (at least on hwys, so most 50mph and up roads) and each vehicle have its own speed limit depending on how capable each individual vehicle is. This would allow all cars, computer controlled and human controlled alike, to "speed" and still be safe. When you think about it, as sports car lovers it would be amazing.
Also price: $250k? haha are your serious? why? Tesla offers all the hardware for that right now for like $8-9k (idk I can't remember exactly but it around that). It won't be anywhere near $250k, no reason to be. People that live outside of just the very big city centers will continue to own their car
On the electric side of things, I can agree that within the next 15-20 years new gas cars will be almost completely gone. The only thing I hope for is that the aftermarket of electric will build quickly and that we can keep our existing gas cars. Also to go along with that, that gas wont be completely impossible to find and we wont have to drive a long distance to get it.
I have seen you post your thoughts on electric and autonomous vehicles in the past and while I can agree with a lot of your electric views, your autonomous views I think are pretty wrong. Not many people agree with your banning of manual driving.
For starters, manufactures are not doing that. If you ignore google’s car, the overwhelming majority of the future concepts shown off by the auto manufacturers have had the option for a human to drive in addition to their self driving capabilities. Actually I can only think of 3 concepts that didn’t have a steering wheel and they are rolls royce, the mercedes sub brand smart, and Audi. All three ether have a good reason for being only self driving (rolls because you know.... it’s rolls), have one specific purpose (smart said its car is for a ride sharing fleet only and won’t even be sold to private customers), or are as a optional alternative to their other concepts for people that want a self driving only car (Audi). In addition to that, both Mercedes and Audi revealed other concepts with human driving as an option at the same event that to showed their previously mentioned no human driving concepts and have many others that they have shown at other events which all have driving as an option. All other concepts have had human driving as an option, even the ones that the companies see being sold 30-40 years from now. There have been several car company CEO’s that have said you will still have the option to drive as well as a large panel of auto industry experts.
On top of that, a survey was conducted by kelly blue book on what consumers want, which is arguably by far the most important factor in this, on what they want:
https://mediaroom.kbb.com/download/K...dy+-+FINAL.pdf
The only data point that suggest otherwise in that study is the young gen z group which is still only 38% that want level 5, but as they get older and experience the joy, utility, and freedom of being able to drive, the number will certainly go down as that group is currently 12-15 years old and haven't even began to learn to drive or experience driving. But even if it doesn't, its still only 38% and you have the older generations that really don't want it. As you can see in the study, overall level 4 autonomy (fully autonomous + option to human drive) is by far the most appealing to the people.
As far as autonomous and human driving not being able to work together or the appeal of self-driving being no accidents, there is a simple solution to this that allows humans to continue to drive. If a vehicle is level 4, then it has all of the necessary hardware and software to be fully self driving and just as safe as level 5. That means you can have it so when in manual driving mode the systems that are in play when the computer is driving, can still be in play when the human is driving, ready to turn on if the person is about to cause an accident. Basically like driver assistance of co-pilot on steroids. You try to do something like change lanes at the wrong time and the computer knows it would cause an accident, it simply wont let you do it. You may get frustrated when it first does it but when you see why it stopped you, you will be grateful. An example of this on a smaller scale is with the new Audi A8. The A8 has side detection and if a car, pedestrian, or cyclist, etc is coming up on the side of the car when you are parked, it won't let you open the door until it passes. Simply do that with the rest of the safety features. As far as speeding, with full autonomous tech the speed limits could be greatly raised or eliminated all together (at least on hwys, so most 50mph and up roads) and each vehicle have its own speed limit depending on how capable each individual vehicle is. This would allow all cars, computer controlled and human controlled alike, to "speed" and still be safe. When you think about it, as sports car lovers it would be amazing.
Also price: $250k? haha are your serious? why? Tesla offers all the hardware for that right now for like $8-9k (idk I can't remember exactly but it around that). It won't be anywhere near $250k, no reason to be. People that live outside of just the very big city centers will continue to own their car
On the electric side of things, I can agree that within the next 15-20 years new gas cars will be almost completely gone. The only thing I hope for is that the aftermarket of electric will build quickly and that we can keep our existing gas cars. Also to go along with that, that gas wont be completely impossible to find and we wont have to drive a long distance to get it.
Second highlighted text: The problem has to do with the usual craziness we see with manually driven cars. We could, I suppose, have separate AEV (autonomous electric vehicle) lanes to keep autonomous and manually driven vehicles apart, but I think this would be extra tough anywhere but on an interstate type highway.
From HERE 360:
Technological issues will remain, says McKinsey [Globally famous consultants], but it seems that the transition period will be the toughest, where regular, ‘old-school’ cars will share road space with connected and autonomous cars. Technology can do a lot, but we’ll still be at risk of human error. It’s an extremely bright future though, and McKinsey adds:
“If we imagine cars programmed to avoid a crash – indeed, programmed never to crash – we envision radical change… Crash-free vehicles mean no traffic police, no ticketing, no alcohol-impaired driving.”
We’ve already seen autonomous cars without regular controls, but manufacturers would also be able to ditch safety features like crumple zones and air bags – things that massively dictate the form and styling of current cars. If McKinsey is right, then car designers will be able to practically rip up the rule book and start afresh, leading to much lighter cars with more space inside and smaller dimensions outside – and as long as we’re willing to embrace change it seems like there are almost no down-sides.
“If we imagine cars programmed to avoid a crash – indeed, programmed never to crash – we envision radical change… Crash-free vehicles mean no traffic police, no ticketing, no alcohol-impaired driving.”
We’ve already seen autonomous cars without regular controls, but manufacturers would also be able to ditch safety features like crumple zones and air bags – things that massively dictate the form and styling of current cars. If McKinsey is right, then car designers will be able to practically rip up the rule book and start afresh, leading to much lighter cars with more space inside and smaller dimensions outside – and as long as we’re willing to embrace change it seems like there are almost no down-sides.
Third highlighted text: As to what consumers want being a guide, since these tech changes will be mandated by the govt, it will not matter what consumers here want. All will follow blithely along. Think, "airbags".
Fourth highlighted text: Finally, as to the cost, for the modern taxis to run all day as ride-shares, summoned by our smart phones, they will have to be much more robust than Tesla's cars. Also, since they will be sold to commercial ventures, the cost will just be passed along as a small incremental cost in the ride share fee. Finally, sales of car units will go down significantly, so to make up the difference in revenue, prices of individual units will go up. That is about the only way GM, Ford, etc., can survive in this brave new world.
Interesting article:
By 2030, nearly no one in the US may own a personal car. Instead, most Americans would hail self-driving, electric ride-shares to get around.... Its authors — Tony Seba, a RethinkX think tank cofounder and Stanford instructor, and James Arbib, a tech investor and philanthropist — say the future of city transportation will manifest as a network of communal, autonomous electric cars owned by ride-share companies. If this future comes true, it has major implications for the US transportation system.
Last edited by quick04Z06; 10-18-2017 at 11:42 AM.
10-16-2017, 09:14 PM
#37
^^^^ The death of the personal automobile is being greatly exaggerated.
10-18-2017, 12:46 AM
#39
First highlighted text: I obviously am making educated guesses, as are you, and I certainly could be wrong. No question.
Second highlighted text: The problem has to do with the usual craziness we see with manually driven cars. We could, I suppose, have separate AEV (autonomous electric vehicle) lanes to keep autonomous and manually driven vehicles apart, but I think this would be extra tough anywhere but on an interstate type highway.
From HERE 360: For McKinsey to make these predictions, manually driven cars pretty much have to go away.
Third highlighted text: As to what consumers want being a guide, since these tech changes will be manadated by the govt, it will not matter what consumers here want. All will follow blithely along. Think, "airbags".
Fourth highlighted text: Finally, as to the cost, for the modern taxis to run all day as ride-shares, summoned by our smart phones, they will have to be much more robust than Tesla's cars. Also, since they will be sold to commercial ventures, the cost will just be passed along as a small incremental cost in the ride share fee. Finally, sales of car units will go down significantly, so to make up the difference in revenue, prices of individual units will go up. That is about the only way GM, Ford, etc., can survive in this brave new world.
Interesting article: Business Insider, May 4, 2017
Second highlighted text: The problem has to do with the usual craziness we see with manually driven cars. We could, I suppose, have separate AEV (autonomous electric vehicle) lanes to keep autonomous and manually driven vehicles apart, but I think this would be extra tough anywhere but on an interstate type highway.
From HERE 360: For McKinsey to make these predictions, manually driven cars pretty much have to go away.
Third highlighted text: As to what consumers want being a guide, since these tech changes will be manadated by the govt, it will not matter what consumers here want. All will follow blithely along. Think, "airbags".
Fourth highlighted text: Finally, as to the cost, for the modern taxis to run all day as ride-shares, summoned by our smart phones, they will have to be much more robust than Tesla's cars. Also, since they will be sold to commercial ventures, the cost will just be passed along as a small incremental cost in the ride share fee. Finally, sales of car units will go down significantly, so to make up the difference in revenue, prices of individual units will go up. That is about the only way GM, Ford, etc., can survive in this brave new world.
Interesting article: Business Insider, May 4, 2017
Second point and McKinsey quote: Why are you assuming that we can't have connected cars with humans driving? The systems of avoidance could still be on, even when a person is driving. Did you not see my example of the new Audi A8? That detects an incoming object and wont let you open the door until it passes. That could be used for everything. Drifting out of your lane? Computer centers you. Not stopping at a light/stop sign? Computer stops you. Changing lanes when a car is coming up in your blind spot? Car won't let you change lanes. Basically like a co-pilot that uses the same hardware and software that it uses when self driving, kinda like current driver assistance on steroids if you will. Connecting the cars would allow this system to work flawlessly even when manually driven. We have/will have some pretty advanced tech that can detect when your not paying attention and when it sees that your not, it could automatically switch back to auto pilot. The vast majority of future concepts that major auto manufactures have shown off still have the option to drive. They will surly have a system similar to this because its just so simple and requires no additional hardware, just software.
Third point: There is a BIG difference in mandating airbags and banning people from driving. Everyone was okay with airbags because there was zero downside, it was all good. Not being able to drive is horrible, there will be a ton of people that are not okay with it. Comparing airbags to banning driving is like saying people were okay with requiring surge protectors in all homes so they will be okay with requiring cameras inside all homes so that the government can see you or tell you when and where you can go because they both are for your "safety". At the end of the quote from Mckinsey they said their will be no downsides, ummm hello? You wont be able to drive! That's a MASSIVE downside. The people will have a big say in this because it takes away a huge privilege and utility.
Fourth point: The ride sharing service and the private car sales will be a completely different thing and market. Car companies will easily stay afloat because about 25-45% of their business will shift to self driving services they the car companies themselves own. The rest will still be in private sales. You severely exaggerate the end of car ownership. It will fall to almost zero in the middle of big cities (where its already extremely low) but outside that it will stay strong. You are assuming that car companies will continue to only sell cars but that is not the case. Several car companies have already announced plans to create their own self driving service that will offset any losses in car sales revenue. Yes the cars will have to be more robust in a car sharing application but they will also be much more basic because they have to stand up to that abuse so the price will be very similar to a privately sold car.
Last edited by theboom; 10-18-2017 at 01:21 AM.
10-18-2017, 11:56 AM
#40
Melting Slicks
Second point and McKinsey quote: Why are you assuming that we can't have connected cars with humans driving? The systems of avoidance could still be on, even when a person is driving. Did you not see my example of the new Audi A8? That detects an incoming object and wont let you open the door until it passes. That could be used for everything. Drifting out of your lane? Computer centers you. Not stopping at a light/stop sign? Computer stops you. Changing lanes when a car is coming up in your blind spot? Car won't let you change lanes. Basically like a co-pilot that uses the same hardware and software that it uses when self driving, kinda like current driver assistance on steroids if you will. Connecting the cars would allow this system to work flawlessly even when manually driven. We have/will have some pretty advanced tech that can detect when your not paying attention and when it sees that your not, it could automatically switch back to auto pilot. The vast majority of future concepts that major auto manufactures have shown off still have the option to drive. They will surly have a system similar to this because its just so simple and requires no additional hardware, just software.
Third point: There is a BIG difference in mandating airbags and banning people from driving. Everyone was okay with airbags because there was zero downside, it was all good. Not being able to drive is horrible, there will be a ton of people that are not okay with it. Comparing airbags to banning driving is like saying people were okay with requiring surge protectors in all homes so they will be okay with requiring cameras inside all homes so that the government can see you or tell you when and where you can go because they both are for your "safety". At the end of the quote from Mckinsey they said their will be no downsides, ummm hello? You wont be able to drive! That's a MASSIVE downside. The people will have a big say in this because it takes away a huge privilege and utility.
Fourth point: The ride sharing service and the private car sales will be a completely different thing and market. Car companies will easily stay afloat because about 25-45% of their business will shift to self driving services they the car companies themselves own. The rest will still be in private sales. You severely exaggerate the end of car ownership. It will fall to almost zero in the middle of big cities (where its already extremely low) but outside that it will stay strong. You are assuming that car companies will continue to only sell cars but that is not the case. Several car companies have already announced plans to create their own self driving service that will offset any losses in car sales revenue. Yes the cars will have to be more robust in a car sharing application but they will also be much more basic because they have to stand up to that abuse so the price will be very similar to a privately sold car.
From Fortune, June 28, 2017 (and this is about today's cars, not electrics):
Because many cities don’t have widespread public transportation, American households are put in a tough position where a new car is unaffordable but a vehicle is needed to get to work every day. Based on the “20/4/10” rule where financial planners recommend a household spend 20% of income on a down payment, take a 4 year loan and use 10% of income on interest and insurance payments, those making median income in the Miami area can afford to buy a $13,577 car. The average new car costs $35,368 including local sales taxes.
Last edited by quick04Z06; 10-18-2017 at 02:03 PM.