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I have already heard reports of the top of the line ZORA reaching 250k according to one that is close to the C8. I've always thought that 200k would be the top limit but apparently not. If this is accurate then my ME + FE duo concept makes even more sense. Remember, they didn't triple the square footage of the Bowling Green plant to still build only one configuration. The massive plant expansion explains everything that some of you are not focusing on. They spent nearly a billion dollars to upsize the plant. Some of you have to wake up to that reality.
If the ME is over $200k, BG will quickly be only producing one variety.
And in any case, it looks like half of that cash went into building a new paint center, and another good chunk went into the engine building areas (which are expanding to build Caddy engines too). I.e., the expansion is not on the vehicle assembly line areas, at least according to press releases on the matter.
Oh no . . . now you've done it. OP is now going to have re-publish the dissertation he wrote based upon his analysis of Google Earth photographs of the BGA site before and after.
It's compared to the same month of the previous year, of course.
If you compare only November and December 2018 sales to the same two months in 2017 the sales drop is even more stark.
The problem is how to interpret these sales figures since most potential Corvette buyers know the release of a new ME Corvette is imminent. Is the slump due to anticipation of a revolutionary new model, or something more dire?
I disagree. The year over year dip in sales is already forecasted and accounted for in GM's Annual Operating Plan. The first few years sales pay back the NRE invested to develop and bring the car to market. This late in the model run, recurring cost is just parts and manufacturing (and whatever administrative and marketing they still need). As long as GM's forecast is accurate and they build the right amount of cars for the market demand, the 19,000 C7 sales are not considered a loss.
GM knows that they will not sustain a peak sales number over the life of any car, so the program is leaned and the AOP is adjusted in advance as the sales forecast drop according to their plan.
I don't understand how you disagree with actual sales figures. Where did we bring up sales forecast?
I get a forecast error analysis is not the same as a total margin analysis.
Great, they forecasted a loss. It is still a loss in total margin.
In your case, the C7 is hemorrhaging and they know it.
In my experience, that model/SKU/product, is set for replacement/discontinue.
It's compared to the same month of the previous year, of course.
If you compare only November and December 2018 sales to the same two months in 2017 the sales drop is even more stark.
The problem is how to interpret these sales figures since most potential Corvette buyers know the release of a new ME Corvette is imminent. Is the slump due to anticipation of a revolutionary new model, ..
Maybe, but the market in general has also moved strongly in the direction of trucks, SUV's and crossovers.
Last edited by Warp Factor; 01-30-2019 at 04:40 PM.
It would be very inexpensive to derive a FE Vette from the C8 and build them side by side.. Both cars can have a base model with manual option starting @ $62 gs. The ME will get the very high HP engines. A luxury Caddy version with far out body panels (Lectric) can also be in the mix.
No matter where this lands, this is a huge roll of the dice for GM. Even though they haven't even acknowledged this ME car, there's enough talk out there now that if they pull the plug on it, there will be plenty of backlash on them for being 'chicken'. But to completely change a 66 year, tried and true formula, a tradition, an Icon, that is Corvette is akin to blindfolded Acapulco cliff diving. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Huge roll of the dice, indeed! If the ME doesn't meet sales expectations and withers away after a few years, the Vette would be history. Unless they keep making a FE model side by side. A sexily restyled C8 and a brand-new ME Zora gleaming in the same showroom is the scenario I imagine. Sort of like front and ME Ferraris sold side my side. This is only likely scenario in my mind.
Remember everyone, we have a purported insider named "unlimitedPower" who claims the 7th gen Camaro would replace the FE Corvette a year or two after the C8 introduction while remaining in the current Camaro price range.
A mid engine Corvette makes space for the 7th gen Camaro to slip into the C7’s current segment in 2021, at current Camaro prices. The 2021 Camaro will be as revolutionary as the C8 but that’s for another forum at another time.
This makes sense to me. The Camaro is already similar to the Corvette in performance and with a ME C8 there wouldn't be the need to aim the Camaro at a different demographic for fear of cannibalizing Corvette sales. The gen7 Camaro could have modern and adult styling like the Mustang instead of looking like a redneck Transformers character.
On one hand I can see it but on the other the new Camaro will have to loose a lot of weight just to call it even with the C7. Currently the C7 is still 5 car lengths on the camaro...
20K units a year at average 70K each is now a loss...
Hallelujah!! /sarc off
Sigh. We're not talking unit margin. I'm talking about total margin (profit, cash, etc.).
If I sold 10 apples for $1 last year, and I sold 7 apples for $1 this year.
I lost $3 compared to last year.
In your example, -7,000 less cars (from 2017) x $70,000 = -$440,000,000
"We sold 1/4 less product than last year, but our unit margin is okay. Everything's fine. Let's change nothing."
This isn't something successful companies say.
Last edited by TheSenator; 01-30-2019 at 06:24 PM.
Reason: can't spell apples twice correctly, apparently.
I don't get what you mean. The C7 ZR1 would be a much better car than any $65k base model ME car could hope to be, so choosing a lesser model instead of a C7 ZR1 would be trading down.
Pretty good, and I got a near perfect score on the Miller Analogies Test.
Originally Posted by Telepierre
On one hand I can see it but on the other the new Camaro will have to loose a lot of weight just to call it even with the C7. Currently the C7 is still 5 car lengths on the camaro...
That's very do-able with a downsizing and using something closer to the C7 platform and body panels. The ZL1 has posted some faster laps than the GS and is creeping close to the Z06 on some courses.
The 7G camaro will replace the FE Corvette in the performance FE sector for Chevy.
The Camaro already performs near equal to the Corvette, weight being the major difference with a back seat and slightly larger vehicle package.
A FE Corvette therefore no longer makes sense. An ME is a necessary step forward for Corvette and the Engineers and head of that project have already made that statement publicly and clearly.
I don't know how many more times this can be discussed.
This is absolutely spot on. The Camaro is the FE champion for GM going forward and that is whether the FE Corvette fist pounders like it or not. Anyone who has driven the latest ZL1 with the LT4 engine knows that this is a fine replacement for a FE Corvette.
01-30-2019, 03:12 PM
