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Old 06-16-2014, 03:45 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by bubba68ss View Post
I get worried when everyone starts talking about 'there's no end in sight'. That's what we hear every time a market makes a big correction.
Those are almost the same words my neighbor said in 2008 after pumping a couple hundred K into his house with an addition and sorts of other goodies. While he didn't lose the house only because of a good job, but he is underwater on what he invested vs. what he could get out, even in todays housing market.
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Old 06-16-2014, 04:09 PM
  #42  
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Waaay overvalued and energy prices do not support it.
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Old 06-16-2014, 04:40 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by ant21b View Post
Not likely market is topping out.
Been hearing that for five years...

A rising equity market is all the Fed has to
maintain "fianacial order". They will continue to
buy the markets directly thru the Primary Dealers
until they get God smacked by a Black Swan.

The Black Swan is most likely the highly leveraged,
unregulated OTC derivative market.

Throw in some Dark Pool drain holes. A couple
of HFT algos gone wild. No physical gold in the US..

and well you get the pic...

Until then - no such thing as a top...
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Old 06-16-2014, 04:45 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by ZL1Vette View Post
No, any thinking conservative cut back on stocks but didn't entirely exit the market. And you would NEVER go into an asset class that yields 0%.


Proper asset allocation and MPT says never go below 20% allocation to stocks, even if you are very bearish.
That's correct, for most people you need to be well diversified unless you're a PROfessional like myself.

It's also suggested to be in more than just the US stock market. There are other countries OUTside the US

Originally Posted by ZL1Vette View Post
Thanks, I did...unfortunately, I sold part of my position and lost out on alot of the upside.

Recouped some with DVN and HES. But still a tough last 15 months or so. Have to be honest, worst time forecasting the market in my life.

Not sure if my job situation is exacerbating my bearish thoughts or what.....
If you're broke or out of a job then your perception is very negative. I give you credit for realizing that.

Originally Posted by Z Factor View Post
Those are almost the same words my neighbor said in 2008 after pumping a couple hundred K into his house with an addition and sorts of other goodies. While he didn't lose the house only because of a good job, but he is underwater on what he invested vs. what he could get out, even in todays housing market.
Tell your neighbor I said he's an Idiot. Anyone who did major improvements into their home since 2007 and didn't think the Housing market was headed lower is listening to the Media.

If you plan to stay in the home for 20+ years then fine, if not go to Vegas and blow your money, you'll have more fun.

Originally Posted by Apothecary View Post
Waaay overvalued and energy prices do not support it.
...and professionals like myself KNOW it's OVERvalued. But that has nothing to do with the trend of the markets. It never has, never will.

Stocks can be Undervalued or Overvalued it has nothing to do with price direction.

This market will continue to rally until the Fed STOPS printing money.

It's really that EASY, stop making it seem more complicated than it really is
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Old 06-16-2014, 04:59 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Tennis & Golf Nut View Post
This market will continue to rally until the Fed STOPS printing money.

It's really that EASY, stop making it seem more complicated than it really is
That's how I feel about it as well.
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Old 06-16-2014, 05:04 PM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by ZL1Vette View Post
Thanks, I did...unfortunately, I sold part of my position and lost out on alot of the upside.

Recouped some with DVN and HES. But still a tough last 15 months or so. Have to be honest, worst time forecasting the market in my life.

Not sure if my job situation is exacerbating my bearish thoughts or what.....
There certainly appears to be some rotation into laggards, notably the energy sector. This could run for some bit, as there's considerable catchup to be done.

I don't see any quick stabilization of the situation in Iraq without significant US involvement, and things could easily spill over into other areas...e.g. sectarian civil war....driving oil prices even higher. If the US continues to signal that it is done with being the guarantor of peace and stability in the Middle East, then that could seriously stimulate oil & gas development elsewhere and pressure the US to remove the ban on crude exports. Things really seem to be hanging in the balance in the Middle East.
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Old 06-16-2014, 05:09 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by Turbodude View Post
There certainly appears to be some rotation into laggards, notably the energy sector. This could run for some bit, as there's considerable catchup to be done.

I don't see any quick stabilization of the situation in Iraq without significant US involvement, and things could easily spill over into other areas...e.g. sectarian civil war....driving oil prices even higher. If the US continues to signal that it is done with being the guarantor of peace and stability in the Middle East, then that could seriously stimulate oil & gas development elsewhere and pressure the US to remove the ban on crude exports.

Things really seem to be hanging in the balance in the Middle East.
There is nothing "hanging"!

A BIG fuggin war is coming.

That's how our markets work. Wars = Money
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Old 06-16-2014, 05:37 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by Tennis & Golf Nut View Post
There is nothing "hanging"!

A BIG fuggin war is coming.

That's how our markets work. Wars = Money
I'm hoping the US isn't a big part of the war. That we can do something quick before things spiral out of control.

If the US goes back in to stomp out ISIS, then things will stabilize so long as we're on the ground. If we don't, then things will likely get messy. Saudi is funding ISIS. To what extent will the US stand by Saudi if Iran decides to take a whack at them for backing ISIS? The US is in a tight spot backing Saudi who are backing ISIS who are destabilizing Iraq. I have to wonder who if anyone is pulling ISIS's strings?

The US needs to take Saudi out behind the woodshed and read them the facts of life. But I don't see Obama getting in the Saudis face over this...he may even see this as an opportunity to try to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and push his idiotic climate change agenda. Obama is plenty foolish enough to believe this. The developing problem is waaay over Obama's head.

Regardless, the past couple of weeks serves as a wakeup call regarding the fragile stability of Iraq and how easily it can all go down the crapper. Without a strong US commitment of some kind, the world will have to start producing more oil elsewhere. Drill baby drill!

Interesting times.
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Old 06-16-2014, 06:38 PM
  #49  
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Been on it since 2009, actually since 1996 before that

The 2-3% Yield aint bad too...beats banks, Treasuries, etc
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Old 06-17-2014, 02:08 AM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by Apothecary View Post
Waaay overvalued and energy prices do not support it.
?????????????????
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Old 06-17-2014, 02:09 AM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by Tennis & Golf Nut View Post
That's how our markets work. Wars = Money
Wars have always been BAD for stock markets -- especially the losers.

But even our stock market didn't take off -- though it recovered post-1942 -- when we won WW II.
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Old 06-17-2014, 02:13 AM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by Turbodude View Post
There certainly appears to be some rotation into laggards, notably the energy sector. This could run for some bit, as there's considerable catchup to be done.
Defensive stocks have done well in 2014 as the 10-year Treasury has backed off 40-50 bp.

Oil stocks have been doing better as they largely pay big dividends. I've done well with Shell (RDS-B/A).

I don't see any quick stabilization of the situation in Iraq without significant US involvement, and things could easily spill over into other areas...e.g. sectarian civil war....driving oil prices even higher. If the US continues to signal that it is done with being the guarantor of peace and stability in the Middle East, then that could seriously stimulate oil & gas development elsewhere and pressure the US to remove the ban on crude exports. Things really seem to be hanging in the balance in the Middle East.
From Barclays Capital weekly oil piece:

Our positive stance on the oil and gas sector is based on our analysis that free cash flow will improve materially in the coming three years as a high number of projects come on stream. This, along with valuations that in our view are attractive both on an absolute and relative basis, should continue to support share price performance.

Oil prices are an important input into this with our long held view that the Brent oil price will remain above $100/bl for the foreseeable future. In this context the deteriorating security situation in Iraq is a reminder as to how little spare capacity exists in the oil market. Even with no disruption to the oil supply, the possibility that infrastructure in southern Iraq could come under attack is likely to keep the oil price well supported near term although it is likely that physical outages would be required to drive it higher still. The large cap integrated companies have limited exposure to Iraq in terms of either production or value, given the terms of the technical service contracts in that region. As a result, if the oil price were to remain elevated for a sustained period the companies should see the benefit of a higher oil price make it through to bottom line. We see it as right to remain positive on the Integrated Oil sector both in Europe and the US with our top picks well positioned, in our view, to deliver operational and financial improvement in the coming 12 months. In Europe these are Shell, Total, Statoil and GALP and in North America they are Suncor, Imperial Oil, Husky Energy and Conoco. The most geared stocks to higher oil prices, all else being equal, in Europe are Statoil and OMV and in North America, Murphy Oil and Cenovus Energy.

Iraq breaking bad: The stakes are high for the oil market, particularly with Libyan production largely off line. The fluid nature of the politics, combined with the intensification of violence moving south, raises the risk profile for output in Iraq, in our view, which currently stands at around 3.3 mb/d (Iraq: Breaking Bad). A big question for the Iraqi oil sector is whether groups like ISIS will seek to expand their attacks to other energy infrastructure. While these groups have not specifically targeted any southern energy facilities, they have carried out periodic bombings in and around the Basra area suggesting the south of the country is not beyond the geographic reach of extremist
groups seeking to increase civil unrest and put pressure on the Maliki government.

Minimal exposure to Iraq, upside potential from higher oil price – for now: Although a number of the large cap IOCs have production in Iraq, the levels are low and the value even lower given the terms of the technical service contracts signed originally in 2010. BP has the greatest exposure but with the value less than 1% of current market cap we see more potential upside from the benefit of a higher oil price than the risk of any lost production, although we would note that oil prices above $120/bl could have a negative impact on demand. All else being equal, we estimate 2014 earnings for the US and European sectors would move by 1.5% for every $1/bl move in the oil price, with Murphy Oil and Cenovus the most sensitive of our North America coverage and OMV and Statoil the most sensitive of our European coverage.
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Old 06-17-2014, 10:53 AM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by ZL1Vette View Post
Defensive stocks have done well in 2014 as the 10-year Treasury has backed off 40-50 bp.

Oil stocks have been doing better as they largely pay big dividends. I've done well with Shell (RDS-B/A).


Over the past 24 years, CVX and XOM have grown at an average rate of roughly 9-10% per year. Add dividend income to this and we're talking 12-13% per year. That's a nice return.

Hopefully their performance over the past 24 years will be sustainable over the next 24 years.

I like your website. You offer some interesting products.
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Old 06-17-2014, 11:07 AM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by Turbodude View Post
I like your website. You offer some interesting products.
You mean TheMCA.com ?

Not sure what you mean by 'products' -- you mean the research requests ?
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Old 06-18-2014, 05:06 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by 694speed350 View Post
BS that was the liberal fools. I still have my stock holdings and haven't converted to precious metals and I'm a consertive.
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Old 06-18-2014, 07:41 PM
  #56  
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Sold off my QQQ (NASDAQ) Call Options near the close today.

27% profit in two weeks, beats Chase Bank paying 0.00001%

That will pay for my trip to Europe in September.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=Q...l=QQQ;range=5d

Even though it's still rising I wanted to take profits off the table with all this War mongering talk.

I'll monitor the situation and hope to get Long again.

Still expecting the Stock Indexes to set New Record Highs by October, much higher.

I'm still long stocks, just not the Indexes as of today.
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Old 06-18-2014, 08:56 PM
  #57  
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There's no end in sight

Take the gains while you can
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Old 06-18-2014, 09:20 PM
  #58  
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I thought greed is driving the stock market higher as the fed continues to taper?
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Old 06-18-2014, 09:27 PM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by Senecagreen View Post
I thought greed is driving the stock market higher as the fed continues to taper?
Yield is what's driving the stock market.

Banks aren't paying any interest and people need Investment Income to survive.

Years ago you could retire and easily expect to grow your portfolio by investing in CD's, Muni-bonds, Annuities, etc and get 4-6%.

Today, a one year CD is paying less than 1%. And you have to pay taxes on that pathetic income.

So you can call it greed, but it's hard when you're a Senior and your hard earned pile of money is getting smaller and smaller.

http://www.bankrate.com/cd.aspx
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Old 06-18-2014, 10:54 PM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by Tennis & Golf Nut View Post
Yield is what's driving the stock market.

Banks aren't paying any interest and people need Investment Income to survive.

Years ago you could retire and easily expect to grow your portfolio by investing in CD's, Muni-bonds, Annuities, etc and get 4-6%.

Today, a one year CD is paying less than 1%. And you have to pay taxes on that pathetic income.

So you can call it greed, but it's hard when you're a Senior and your hard earned pile of money is getting smaller and smaller.

http://www.bankrate.com/cd.aspx
I understand that. Fair enough

Now that banks are used to paying nothing for your money. How stingy are they going to be when its times to raise rates on cd's?

I bet they won't have any trouble quickly raising loan rates
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