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Dow plunges nearly 800 points on rising fears of an economic slowdown

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Dow plunges nearly 800 points on rising fears of an economic slowdown

Old 12-05-2018, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by KENS78SILVERANNIV View Post
Trump doesn't need any help from Pelosi and friends. His assinine Tariffs are responsible for this one.
Last I looked we have new deals with Mexico, Canada and Europe to lower tariffs by those countries -- thanks to Trump.
By the way, I cannot help but notice that you blame America and Trump while China raises tariffs against the United States.

Last edited by virtue4u; 12-05-2018 at 08:39 AM.
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Old 12-05-2018, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Red99SS View Post
Mad Max threatens to punish banks as badly as she can, bank stocks fall, clearly trump is to blame.


We warned.
The numb nut Dems on this forum didn't listen.
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Old 12-05-2018, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by CuzzinJack View Post
Obama's fault ...... .. ....
Agreed!
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:02 AM
  #44  
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Wth … Market closed today.
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by 69L46 View Post
The volatility numbers today were not quite a high as one might think, given the market swing between yesterday and today. The underlying economy is still quite strong, as yesterday's ISM numbers indicated, along with finally seeing some wage growth with continued low unemployment and positive signals from the Fed.

People simply need to stop getting wrapped around the axle on tariffs. It isn't the end of the world, and yes, it will end.
Trade jitters certainly contributed to yesterday's down market but as this piece points out there are concerns that go beyond Trump and the Fed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d?srnd=premium
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by vette6799 View Post
Trade jitters certainly contributed to yesterday's down market but as this piece points out there are concerns that go beyond Trump and the Fed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d?srnd=premium
This I would agree with. Kipling's "If" comes to mind:

Reading too much into day-to-day moves is usually a mistake and a half dozen explanations exist for Tuesday’s walloping


This I would not:

That issue is the possibility economic and earnings growth will slow down or stop next year, a scenario that unlike the trade war and interest-rate policy defies any obvious quick fix.

While there will no doubt be slowing, the notion that growth and subsequently earning are going to fall off a cliff, thanks to the lack of additional corporate tax incentives forthcoming while consumer confidence and employment remains strong and inflation remains mild - not buying it. It would also take a true anomaly to circumvent 3%+ overall real GDP growth for this year and that momentum will carry forward.


The spread between the 2/10 year Treasuries is now a mere 10 basis points. Whether this inverts and it again proves the reliable indicator of a recession it's long been regarded as, we'll see. I have far more concern over the next 90 days involving trade and the split among the Fed as to continued rate hikes occurring.
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:29 AM
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yield curve rising 2 year bond coming down, all doom and gloom, we're going into a recession. the tax cuts were all a sugar high, the end is near. what a load of crap, alarmists just like the climate wackos. continual doom and gloom. monday it's one thing then 24 hours later the sky is falling.

tariffs i've yet to see anybody, anybody offer a solution as to what to do except kick the can down the road.
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Old 12-05-2018, 10:07 AM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by 69L46 View Post
This I would agree with. Kipling's "If" comes to mind:

Reading too much into day-to-day moves is usually a mistake and a half dozen explanations exist for Tuesday’s walloping


This I would not:

That issue is the possibility economic and earnings growth will slow down or stop next year, a scenario that unlike the trade war and interest-rate policy defies any obvious quick fix.

While there will no doubt be slowing, the notion that growth and subsequently earning are going to fall off a cliff, thanks to the lack of additional corporate tax incentives forthcoming while consumer confidence and employment remains strong and inflation remains mild - not buying it. It would also take a true anomaly to circumvent 3%+ overall real GDP growth for this year and that momentum will carry forward.


The spread between the 2/10 year Treasuries is now a mere 10 basis points. Whether this inverts and it again proves the reliable indicator of a recession it's long been regarded as, we'll see. I have far more concern over the next 90 days involving trade and the split among the Fed as to continued rate hikes occurring.
I would think that corporate profit increases, depending upon a corp's fiscal year, would just be coming into play. It will be interesting to see what the new effective corp. rates are compared to the prior tax structure.

I share your opinion about GDP growth for the year, i.e., 3% or slightly higher but I'm thinking that this quarter will not be as strong as last quarter.

Equities markets tend to be forward-leaning indicators and "thing" are slowing down in other areas of the world, although not so much the US...yet.
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Old 12-05-2018, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by PatternDayTrader
Wth … Market closed today.
Federal holiday for morning the passing of Bush Sr.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:09 AM
  #50  
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Been playing the market for 30 some years, not having any problem sleeping.

Thats why you have a diversified portifilo! Some things go up some go down, its the way it is. Been through worse than this. Have good dividend paying stocks is a + and do not do anything stupid in a down time and all will be well!
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:11 AM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by vette6799 View Post
I would think that corporate profit increases, depending upon a corp's fiscal year, would just be coming into play. It will be interesting to see what the new effective corp. rates are compared to the prior tax structure.

I share your opinion about GDP growth for the year, i.e., 3% or slightly higher but I'm thinking that this quarter will not be as strong as last quarter.

Equities markets tend to be forward-leaning indicators and "thing" are slowing down in other areas of the world, although not so much the US...yet.
Yes, typically 4th quarter is always lower and this year will be likely be similar, although we're still seeing good numbers on the manufacturing/supply chain side. I'm also wondering how much of a lead beyond six months the current equities markets indicate, given the current market volatility.

Did you happen to read Wien's December commentary? Always informative. I thought the comments on trade were spot on, at least I hope so.

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Old 12-05-2018, 11:25 AM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by 6spdC6 View Post
Thats why you have a diversified portifilo! Some things go up some go down, its the way it is. Been through worse than this. Have good dividend paying stocks is a + and do not do anything stupid in a down time and all will be well!
Dips are great buying opportunities.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:25 AM
  #53  
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The economy is just starting to get traction....bigger and better things will be with us now and in the future.....slowing down my ***.......money is being spent for capital expansion....jobs abound and wages are rising....taxes and regulations are down.....China is close to being solved.....the market will be stronger than ever.....30,000 is around the corner........the house can only do so much damage........just cross your fingers nothing happens to the Trumpster.

777
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:30 AM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by PatternDayTrader View Post
Wth … Market closed today.
Always closed for Presidential funeral.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:34 AM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by 69L46 View Post
Yes, typically 4th quarter is always lower and this year will be likely be similar, although we're still seeing good numbers on the manufacturing/supply chain side. I'm also wondering how much of a lead beyond six months the current equities markets indicate, given the current market volatility.

Did you happen to read Wien's December commentary? Always informative. I thought the comments on trade were spot on, at least I hope so.
Sometimes perception becomes its own reality. There have been so many people suggesting a decline that it doesn't take much to create volatility. While not discussed to any great extent by the MSM, the financial pages do talk with some degree of frequency of changes companies are making because fo potential and actual trade concerns.

I did read Byron Wien's comments...always perceptive. He is an old guy and probably won't be doing his commentary too much longer.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:35 AM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by PatternDayTrader View Post
Good.
Another 5000 points to go, as far as I'm concerned.
Agreed. Pulled out at 26,800 and almost regretted it a few times. Going to stay out and hoping for a massive drop to get back in. If it doesnt happen then we are safe, as we should be, at retirement age.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:40 AM
  #57  
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Originally Posted by vette6799 View Post
Sometimes perception becomes its own reality. There have been so many people suggesting a decline that it doesn't take much to create volatility. While not discussed to any great extent by the MSM, the financial pages do talk with some degree of frequency of changes companies are making because fo potential and actual trade concerns.

I did read Byron Wien's comments...always perceptive. He is an old guy and probably won't be doing his commentary too much longer.
Therein lies the rub. The herd mentality always sets in, and not easy to go against the grain.

I wish we had a few more of his kind of 'old guys' in Congress.

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Old 12-05-2018, 11:42 AM
  #58  
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:43 AM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by iwasmenowhesgone View Post
This stock market is a joke.....and anyone who thinks it makes any ******* sense is way smarter than me. Up, down, every time some reason....tomorrow another disaster, following by another report, followed by another low, followed by, on and on. For those who find this amusing, I guess it fills some time. For me, when I try to have hope for a retirement on a 401K, all I know is I can't count on nothing. I wish it all made more sense.
Well said in my opinion. I accidentally made some money in the market a while back and thought (momentarily) I knew what I was doing which reminds me of vegas. Now I'm in for the long haul towards retirement (conservative funds) and ignore the market. The advice I hear most often: "You can't time the market!" But for those closing in on retirement that's exactly what you have to do. Otherwise your funds could lose 40% in a year. Some time around my 60th birthday I guess I'm gonna have to time the market and move money into something that can whether the next correction. Patterndaytrader... how do I do this? (serious question).
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:45 AM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by KENS78SILVERANNIV View Post
Trump doesn't need any help from Pelosi and friends. His assinine Tariffs are responsible for this one.
No they aren't. We have over 12,000 tariffs on products. The end cost of these tariffs on the consumer are less than 2%.

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