OIL HITS ONE HUNDRED PER BARREL when will it cut into HPDE's?
01-02-2008, 03:12 PM
#1
Team Owner
Thread Starter
OIL HITS ONE HUNDRED PER BARREL when will it cut into HPDE's?
When does it decrease the amount of participation in HPDE and club racing?
I think it will start hurting many things now.
I thiink very rough ride ahead for the economy
I think it will start hurting many things now.
I thiink very rough ride ahead for the economy
Last edited by John Shiels; 01-02-2008 at 03:16 PM.
01-02-2008, 03:20 PM
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I would say it already is.
At the current prices, tow or travel fuel is the biggest or near biggest expense I look at.. meaning that for me, it controls the rest.
Jon K
At the current prices, tow or travel fuel is the biggest or near biggest expense I look at.. meaning that for me, it controls the rest.
Jon K
01-02-2008, 03:45 PM
#3
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Even last year there were a few smaller clubs that could not fill their events,
and I know of one event that was canceled at Road Atlanta as they could not get enough participants to sign up.
and I know of one event that was canceled at Road Atlanta as they could not get enough participants to sign up.
7mpg!!! The vir hpde is going to be ouchy ; thats if Im quick enough with the registration.
01-02-2008, 04:07 PM
#5
Team Owner
Thread Starter
Home heating oil $3.75
Diesel $3.71
Filling house oil tank, rough terrain forklifts, trucks, Excursion it's hundreds constantly. Business competition is nuts, masonry material prices going up 6% and that will be to June 31st only possibly. Municipalities are now putting project on hold after submitting them for public bids as their funds are drying up and bids are higher than expected.
Tires prices will rise and they sure don't last me very long.
Glad I bought a new 19' Whaler and nothing bigger as 40-50 bucks to cruise preety far is still inbounds. I see 35' boats with 400 gallon tanks hitting 1800 for a fill up this season. It don't last long in a boat either. Thank goodness my boat racing days are long gone since 98. Even then it was 600 to fill for one race and trailer all over the East Coast
Economy on Long Island is dying and in commercial construction it is dead. Residential is dead also. NYC commercial is still busy but new permits are way down for the future.
Higher Oil Prices Long Term
May Impede Global Growth
By SUDEEP REDDY
January 2, 2008 3:29 p.m.
Oil prices only briefly touched $100 a barrel today, but a prolonged stay at that level could soften the world's strong economic growth and threaten a U.S. economy already weakened by an ailing housing market and increasingly cautious lenders.
Higher oil prices would also test the progress made by many of the world's industrialized economies toward greater energy efficiency since the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s.
Crude-oil futures hit $100 a barrel for the first time in a single floor trade at 12:09 p.m. EST in the New York Mercantile Exchange's benchmark February contract, before pulling back to settle at $99.56 a barrel, up $3.58. A spokeswoman for the New York Mercantile Exchange said the $100 trade was legitimate.
THE ROAD TO $100
• Interactive Graphic: Oil's Steady Climb
• The Road to $100 Oil – and Beyond?In the U.S., which remains the most oil-dependent industrialized nation, oil at $100 would threaten consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and is already expected to soften as home values decline. Oil's rise is sending up the price of gasoline -- the most visible price in the U.S. economy -- and that has major impact on consumer psychology. Readings of consumer confidence have been weakening recently.
"If oil stays at the price it's at, you could see gasoline prices at $3.60 or $4 a gallon, which is absolutely frightening," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. "It's going to have a fairly devastating impact."
That impact could ripple through other economies. Asia's rapidly developing nations have flush cash reserves to continue subsidizing fuel for its population. But China's 10% rise in government-controlled fuel prices shows higher oil costs are putting a greater strain on Asian nations. Also, China in particular is heavily dependent on consumer spending in the U.S. Should higher fuel prices curb U.S. consumer spending, China -- the U.S.'s factory floor -- would suffer.
Europe is also better-equipped to withstand oil at $100 a barrel near-term, in part because oil makes up a smaller part of the price of diesel and gasoline due to high taxes. More significantly, the price of oil is rising less sharply measured in euros and pounds rather in U.S. dollars, which is weakening. But the European Central Bank measures its success by the path of inflation including food and energy prices. With energy pushing inflation higher, the bank could be more reluctant to cut rates to resuscitate a slowing economy than its U.S. counterpart, the Federal Reserve.
The Fed puts considerable weight on inflation before energy and food prices. But it, too, faces a dilemma. Until recently Fed officials downplayed the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, noting inflation excluding food and energy had edged lower. And consumers' and investors' long-term expectations of inflation, as revealed by surveys and bond trading behavior, have remained relatively stable.
But Fed officials recently have signaled a rising degree of discomfort with the inflationary implications of energy prices. The statement accompanying their last interest-rate move said that, along with higher prices for other commodities, energy prices "may put upward pressure on inflation." Those concerns suggest the Fed feels little latitude to lower interest rates to cushion the shock of steeper fuel bills, since doing so could aggravate inflation.
Economic forecasting firm Global Insight says that, in the U.S., each additional $10 per barrel increase in oil prices raises gasoline prices by roughly 19 cents a gallon, cuts growth in consumer spending by a third of a percentage point, reduces employment by 100,000 and adds one-half percentage point to consumer price inflation. Those factors combined will subtract two-tenths of a percentage point from the already slow 1.1% pace of growth the firm expects for the first half of 2008, Global Insight says.
Growth in consumer spending slowed from an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4% in the first quarter to about 1.4% in the second quarter as gasoline prices climbed in the spring and early summer, then rebounded to 3% in the third quarter. Economists now anticipate a slower fourth quarter, though not as slow as they feared earlier. Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis forecaster, estimates that consumer spending increased in the fourth quarter at a 2.8% annual pace.
DAILY ECONOMICS NEWSLETTER
Sign up for our new email of the day's Real Time Economics posts, by Greg Ip, Sudeep Reddy and the Journal's economics team. The email also includes the latest economic headlines, data and columns. Choose HTML or plain text."If gasoline prices go up, that means less to spend on everything else," said David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. fixed-income economist. "Whatever you get on gas prices eats into other forms of consumer spending."
Rising energy prices haven't harmed the U.S. economy as visibly as they did three decades ago, in part because of the economy's improved ability to absorb the shock. Manufacturers are more efficient. Vehicles get more out of every gallon of gasoline. Airlines and other transportation companies maintain aggressive programs to reduce their fuel expenses.
"The economy has performed well in the face of a huge run-up in energy prices," said Mr. Greenlaw.
The big question is whether that can continue. "Manufacturers try to absorb these things through productivity," said Norbert Ore, a purchasing executive at Georgia-Pacific Corp. who is chairman of a manufacturing committee for the Institute for Supply Management. "They try to avoid raising prices as long as they can, as long as existing inventories are in place, and to try to offset any short-term incursions we see in oil prices."
When they can, however, companies try to pass along oil prices by raising prices of everything that relies on petroleum -- from plastics to tires to prescription drugs to airfares. That's usually easier to do at times when the economy is booming, but it's also harder to avoid even in a sluggish economy if oil prices keep rising.
To the extent that oil prices are driven by surging demand in China, India and other developing economies, there is an offsetting benefit to the U.S.: a ready appetite for some American exports. That makes an oil-price surge like this one, which is largely driven by demand, different from one caused by supply shock like those of the 1970s.
Few economists and businesses, however, expect oil prices to continue rising indefinitely. They say consumers eventually will respond to price increases by cutting back consumption through less driving, greater efficiency and a switch to alternatives.
"The cure for high prices is high prices," Mr. Ore said.
Write to Sudeep Reddy at sudeep.reddy@wsj.com
Diesel $3.71
Filling house oil tank, rough terrain forklifts, trucks, Excursion it's hundreds constantly. Business competition is nuts, masonry material prices going up 6% and that will be to June 31st only possibly. Municipalities are now putting project on hold after submitting them for public bids as their funds are drying up and bids are higher than expected.
Tires prices will rise and they sure don't last me very long.
Glad I bought a new 19' Whaler and nothing bigger as 40-50 bucks to cruise preety far is still inbounds. I see 35' boats with 400 gallon tanks hitting 1800 for a fill up this season. It don't last long in a boat either. Thank goodness my boat racing days are long gone since 98. Even then it was 600 to fill for one race and trailer all over the East Coast
Economy on Long Island is dying and in commercial construction it is dead. Residential is dead also. NYC commercial is still busy but new permits are way down for the future.
Higher Oil Prices Long Term
May Impede Global Growth
By SUDEEP REDDY
January 2, 2008 3:29 p.m.
Oil prices only briefly touched $100 a barrel today, but a prolonged stay at that level could soften the world's strong economic growth and threaten a U.S. economy already weakened by an ailing housing market and increasingly cautious lenders.
Higher oil prices would also test the progress made by many of the world's industrialized economies toward greater energy efficiency since the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s.
Crude-oil futures hit $100 a barrel for the first time in a single floor trade at 12:09 p.m. EST in the New York Mercantile Exchange's benchmark February contract, before pulling back to settle at $99.56 a barrel, up $3.58. A spokeswoman for the New York Mercantile Exchange said the $100 trade was legitimate.
THE ROAD TO $100
• Interactive Graphic: Oil's Steady Climb
• The Road to $100 Oil – and Beyond?In the U.S., which remains the most oil-dependent industrialized nation, oil at $100 would threaten consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and is already expected to soften as home values decline. Oil's rise is sending up the price of gasoline -- the most visible price in the U.S. economy -- and that has major impact on consumer psychology. Readings of consumer confidence have been weakening recently.
"If oil stays at the price it's at, you could see gasoline prices at $3.60 or $4 a gallon, which is absolutely frightening," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. "It's going to have a fairly devastating impact."
That impact could ripple through other economies. Asia's rapidly developing nations have flush cash reserves to continue subsidizing fuel for its population. But China's 10% rise in government-controlled fuel prices shows higher oil costs are putting a greater strain on Asian nations. Also, China in particular is heavily dependent on consumer spending in the U.S. Should higher fuel prices curb U.S. consumer spending, China -- the U.S.'s factory floor -- would suffer.
Europe is also better-equipped to withstand oil at $100 a barrel near-term, in part because oil makes up a smaller part of the price of diesel and gasoline due to high taxes. More significantly, the price of oil is rising less sharply measured in euros and pounds rather in U.S. dollars, which is weakening. But the European Central Bank measures its success by the path of inflation including food and energy prices. With energy pushing inflation higher, the bank could be more reluctant to cut rates to resuscitate a slowing economy than its U.S. counterpart, the Federal Reserve.
The Fed puts considerable weight on inflation before energy and food prices. But it, too, faces a dilemma. Until recently Fed officials downplayed the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, noting inflation excluding food and energy had edged lower. And consumers' and investors' long-term expectations of inflation, as revealed by surveys and bond trading behavior, have remained relatively stable.
But Fed officials recently have signaled a rising degree of discomfort with the inflationary implications of energy prices. The statement accompanying their last interest-rate move said that, along with higher prices for other commodities, energy prices "may put upward pressure on inflation." Those concerns suggest the Fed feels little latitude to lower interest rates to cushion the shock of steeper fuel bills, since doing so could aggravate inflation.
Economic forecasting firm Global Insight says that, in the U.S., each additional $10 per barrel increase in oil prices raises gasoline prices by roughly 19 cents a gallon, cuts growth in consumer spending by a third of a percentage point, reduces employment by 100,000 and adds one-half percentage point to consumer price inflation. Those factors combined will subtract two-tenths of a percentage point from the already slow 1.1% pace of growth the firm expects for the first half of 2008, Global Insight says.
Growth in consumer spending slowed from an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4% in the first quarter to about 1.4% in the second quarter as gasoline prices climbed in the spring and early summer, then rebounded to 3% in the third quarter. Economists now anticipate a slower fourth quarter, though not as slow as they feared earlier. Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis forecaster, estimates that consumer spending increased in the fourth quarter at a 2.8% annual pace.
DAILY ECONOMICS NEWSLETTER
Sign up for our new email of the day's Real Time Economics posts, by Greg Ip, Sudeep Reddy and the Journal's economics team. The email also includes the latest economic headlines, data and columns. Choose HTML or plain text."If gasoline prices go up, that means less to spend on everything else," said David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. fixed-income economist. "Whatever you get on gas prices eats into other forms of consumer spending."
Rising energy prices haven't harmed the U.S. economy as visibly as they did three decades ago, in part because of the economy's improved ability to absorb the shock. Manufacturers are more efficient. Vehicles get more out of every gallon of gasoline. Airlines and other transportation companies maintain aggressive programs to reduce their fuel expenses.
"The economy has performed well in the face of a huge run-up in energy prices," said Mr. Greenlaw.
The big question is whether that can continue. "Manufacturers try to absorb these things through productivity," said Norbert Ore, a purchasing executive at Georgia-Pacific Corp. who is chairman of a manufacturing committee for the Institute for Supply Management. "They try to avoid raising prices as long as they can, as long as existing inventories are in place, and to try to offset any short-term incursions we see in oil prices."
When they can, however, companies try to pass along oil prices by raising prices of everything that relies on petroleum -- from plastics to tires to prescription drugs to airfares. That's usually easier to do at times when the economy is booming, but it's also harder to avoid even in a sluggish economy if oil prices keep rising.
To the extent that oil prices are driven by surging demand in China, India and other developing economies, there is an offsetting benefit to the U.S.: a ready appetite for some American exports. That makes an oil-price surge like this one, which is largely driven by demand, different from one caused by supply shock like those of the 1970s.
Few economists and businesses, however, expect oil prices to continue rising indefinitely. They say consumers eventually will respond to price increases by cutting back consumption through less driving, greater efficiency and a switch to alternatives.
"The cure for high prices is high prices," Mr. Ore said.
Write to Sudeep Reddy at sudeep.reddy@wsj.com
Last edited by John Shiels; 01-02-2008 at 04:19 PM.
01-02-2008, 04:21 PM
#6
Team Owner
We've kept our price in check the best we could for our events.
I however think in some cases it helps our events. Reason being cars are toys and people are busy.
So you don't have time to play with it everyday or drive it everyday, or the cost of driving it everyday is too high. Not everyone has track cars that get such good mile as a Corvette.
Cost to operate it is higher so you want to get the most out of it. An HPDE is getting the most out of it...you do less with it but make the time you have count.
We take into consideration the cost to attend one of our events. Most people are spending $300+ for a single day. $165 entry fee, gas money, more if they spend the night...breakfast, dinner...
Then again we're pretty reasonable at $165 so that helps us too.
Running a good event helps, people will be tigher with their dollars and only attend quality days compared to before when they might hit up a few that were so-so but track time was available.
Track owners aren't idiots either, well most of them
They know nowadays a lower profit margin is better than none. Before you might have had a hard time filling an event and a owner might have said sorry I'll get someone else but today thats not happening. There is no one else.
As with anything you adapt to the situation and make it attractive as you can given the conditions you have to present it in.
Gas prices...I'm starting to become of the opinion that constant gas prices around $3.00 are going to do more to hurt the economy in the long term than if it went to $4.00 next week. Its obvious they are not going to retreat so higher prices will push a change in the country.
I remember filling up my TT Camaro for $18! Turn up the boost, premiums cheap :d
I however think in some cases it helps our events. Reason being cars are toys and people are busy.
So you don't have time to play with it everyday or drive it everyday, or the cost of driving it everyday is too high. Not everyone has track cars that get such good mile as a Corvette.
Cost to operate it is higher so you want to get the most out of it. An HPDE is getting the most out of it...you do less with it but make the time you have count.
We take into consideration the cost to attend one of our events. Most people are spending $300+ for a single day. $165 entry fee, gas money, more if they spend the night...breakfast, dinner...
Then again we're pretty reasonable at $165 so that helps us too.
Running a good event helps, people will be tigher with their dollars and only attend quality days compared to before when they might hit up a few that were so-so but track time was available.
Track owners aren't idiots either, well most of them
They know nowadays a lower profit margin is better than none. Before you might have had a hard time filling an event and a owner might have said sorry I'll get someone else but today thats not happening. There is no one else.As with anything you adapt to the situation and make it attractive as you can given the conditions you have to present it in.
Gas prices...I'm starting to become of the opinion that constant gas prices around $3.00 are going to do more to hurt the economy in the long term than if it went to $4.00 next week. Its obvious they are not going to retreat so higher prices will push a change in the country.
I remember filling up my TT Camaro for $18! Turn up the boost, premiums cheap :d
01-02-2008, 04:28 PM
#7
Team Owner
Thread Starter
165 is a bargin most here in NYC area are 275-400. I started driving it was 29 cents a gallon and we used to drain the gas pump hoses at night 
01-02-2008, 04:49 PM
#9
Le Mans Master
A couple thoughts, if HDPE were to become less polular, I kind of see that as a good thing. It brings less attention and less idiots to the events, which lowers insurance rates. I was always concerned about this thing ending one day due to track/personal insurance liability.
If oil prices keep going up, the problem won't stop with the economy. What's scary, is in desperate times and situations, what does that usually lead to?....WAR. 10 years down the road, could we all be fighting over the remaining resources? Are we already there? When sh*t hits the fan, I am sure the strong will flex their muscle.
If oil prices keep going up, the problem won't stop with the economy. What's scary, is in desperate times and situations, what does that usually lead to?....WAR. 10 years down the road, could we all be fighting over the remaining resources? Are we already there? When sh*t hits the fan, I am sure the strong will flex their muscle.
01-02-2008, 04:51 PM
#10
Team Owner
Thread Starter
01-02-2008, 05:27 PM
#13
Melting Slicks
Member Since: Sep 2006
Location: Beaverton OR
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...Few economists and businesses, however, expect oil prices to continue rising indefinitely. They say consumers eventually will respond to price increases by cutting back consumption through less driving, greater efficiency and a switch to alternatives.
"The cure for high prices is high prices," Mr. Ore said.
Write to Sudeep Reddy at sudeep.reddy@wsj.com
"The cure for high prices is high prices," Mr. Ore said.
Write to Sudeep Reddy at sudeep.reddy@wsj.com
The world's economy is petroleum based. It will continue to be for probably the next 40 years, if not longer. Every time the price of oil increases, actual oil reserves increase.
Keep in mind that no one is actually paying $100.00 / bbl for oil yet. What is really happening is oil speculators (commodity traders) "bet" on how much oil will cost at some point in the future. If you have ever traded commodities, (as I have
) you must recognize that it is HIGHLY speculative. The "good" things about higher oil prices are that they stimulate increased exploration and re-development of known oil deposits that were economically unfeasible at $50 / bbl, thereby increasing useful reserves. Higher oil prices also stimulate new technologies that can not compete with historically low prices for oil.
The fact is, we live in an economy where people don't mind paying $15.00 per gallon for water and $5.00 for a cup of coffee. Although there may be some short term "pain" while people get used to paying the higher costs for fuel, after awhile, we'll get used to it.
Our hobby is not cheap. Some people will undoubtably not be able to afford the sport. But that happens all the time anyway, so after the dust has cleared, it will be like taking your hand out of a bucket full of water: It will cause a few ripples for awhile, but pretty soon, you won't even notice that there was ever a hand in the bucket.
My 2 cents!
01-02-2008, 05:28 PM
#14
Racer
Member Since: Dec 2004
Location: Wichita Kansas
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01-02-2008, 05:29 PM
#15
Team Owner
I would like to try Thunderhill (about 620 miles from me) but if gas goes too high, that might take me some time to get enough gas money together. Might be once a year deal.
Those who have to travel any distance and tow a car may very well have to cut back on HPDE's. I certainly have no hope of visiting tracks outside of the Pacific Northwest when towing my car even if gas is $2.50 a gallon.
01-02-2008, 05:43 PM
#17
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A couple thoughts, if HDPE were to become less polular, I kind of see that as a good thing. It brings less attention and less idiots to the events, which lowers insurance rates. I was always concerned about this thing ending one day due to track/personal insurance liability.
If oil prices keep going up, the problem won't stop with the economy. What's scary, is in desperate times and situations, what does that usually lead to?....WAR. 10 years down the road, could we all be fighting over the remaining resources? Are we already there? When sh*t hits the fan, I am sure the strong will flex their muscle.
If oil prices keep going up, the problem won't stop with the economy. What's scary, is in desperate times and situations, what does that usually lead to?....WAR. 10 years down the road, could we all be fighting over the remaining resources? Are we already there? When sh*t hits the fan, I am sure the strong will flex their muscle.
01-02-2008, 05:48 PM
#19
Burning Brakes
Used 2001 Corvette Z06 - $28,000
New Big Brake kit - $1200
New set of track tires - $1200
Extra set of Wheels - $1500 (on e-Bay)
LG Headers - $1500
Exhaust system - $1000
New Hubs (just in case) - $600
Oil Change - $100
Registration cost for avg. two-day HPDE - $200
Two nights in a Hotel - $200
Passing a 2007 GT3 RSR in a 2001 Z06 - PRICELESS!!!!
Extra cost for a tank of gas (for your Corvette not your RV) at $4/gallon versus current $3.39 = $11.28
Extra cost to run the average two-day DE due to increased gas cost: Less than $100 if you drive your car to the track including a 300mile round trip.
Bottom line: The sky is not falling. HPDEs are still cheap fun compared to the cost of everything else we spend our money on. For those of you with a street-legal ride, leave the RV at home and drive your Corvette to the track! Cut overhead not track time!
New Big Brake kit - $1200
New set of track tires - $1200
Extra set of Wheels - $1500 (on e-Bay)
LG Headers - $1500
Exhaust system - $1000
New Hubs (just in case) - $600
Oil Change - $100
Registration cost for avg. two-day HPDE - $200
Two nights in a Hotel - $200
Passing a 2007 GT3 RSR in a 2001 Z06 - PRICELESS!!!!
Extra cost for a tank of gas (for your Corvette not your RV) at $4/gallon versus current $3.39 = $11.28
Extra cost to run the average two-day DE due to increased gas cost: Less than $100 if you drive your car to the track including a 300mile round trip.
Bottom line: The sky is not falling. HPDEs are still cheap fun compared to the cost of everything else we spend our money on. For those of you with a street-legal ride, leave the RV at home and drive your Corvette to the track! Cut overhead not track time!
01-02-2008, 05:56 PM
#20
Le Mans Master
Used 2001 Corvette Z06 - $28,000
New Big Brake kit - $1200
New set of track tires - $1200
Extra set of Wheels - $1500 (on e-Bay)
LG Headers - $1500
Exhaust system - $1000
New Hubs (just in case) - $600
Oil Change - $100
Registration cost for avg. two-day HPDE - $200
Two nights in a Hotel - $200
Passing a 2007 GT3 RSR in a 2001 Z06 - PRICELESS!!!!...
