Alot of interesting ideas on price... here are the fundamentals..

There are currently 85 million barrels of oil available each day
world wide... this represents the Total production capacity of all
oil producers... all companies... all countries.

Demand is increasing per the development of China, Russia and other
countries that were formerly not players in the game...(when they
were less developed they demanded less).

As long as supply remains constant.. (85million barrels/day) and demand increases...(greater need from other countries).. the price will continue to go up.

The price will level out when Oil becomes so expensive that demand
drops...

Or when other sources of Fuel are offered at lower prices and the oil
price drops to compete.

It's going to keep going up...


We are entering a fuel/transition period.... At the same time that
our Boomers are retiring and needing health care.. and selling off
their big houses flooding the market because of their great numbers.
(Real Estate will continue to drop.. too many sellers, not enough buyers)
Boomers will also not be paying the taxes that they were when
they were working.. giving the gov't less to work with..

We are facing some very big challenges ahead in the next 20
years.... if you haven't started working to meet these challenges
you should certainly consider it for your families sake.

 

I agree that is another part of the mess. Don't get me started on the refinery situation. Also the Nukes. How long since one of those was built???????

The Greenie / Eco Crazies have a strangle hold on everything that could help with this problem. All we have left that we can do is downshift our economy (cleaner air and all) while the "Developing World" belches out soot and everything that is a by product of incomplete combustion. We will have clean air to satisfy the Green Gestapo because nobody will be working (all jobs shipped over to India / China) and no one here will be able to afford the market price for oil. No cars o the road will soon result. Hell we can buy unused Chinese Bikes to ride to the open air markets. All will be well till the soot and green house gasses belched out by China and India and the Emerging World blow over here and choke us.

The Greenies have us tied in knots ...gotta have clean air...can't have nukes, can't use clean burn coal for generation can't do anything but whine cry and pay whatever the World Market demands we pay.

We need a leader with the ***** to step up and cut some of these building and exploration restraints. Declare a national energy emergency......whatever it takes. Start building nukes and refineries, install solar and wind where applicable, stop EXPORTING American natural gas and GET AWAY FROM ARAB OIL

 

How about, we keep our consumption the same and they learn to live the way they always have, and stop breeding so many people.

Give up my gasoline so people in developing countries can drive?? That is like asking me to send part of my paycheck overseas so those people can live better while i live worse.

Doug

 

No question that the third world is driving demand. Can you believe that in China 4 million new cars were sold last year according to Automotive News. Now that is a lot of demand that just wasn't there previously.

However the real kicker in oil prices these days is the fact that the price of oil is denominated in dollars worldwide. Right now the dollar is very weak against world currencies, so the price goes up for those of us who use dollars. Other currency countries have not had the same % price increase we have. As long as we have low interest rates to combat inflation at home, problems; we will have disproportionately expensive oil.

We need new refineries, and new sources of oil to feed those refineries.
Or, we need to use less; or something different. Perhaps a combination of changes. As someone noted, right now supply is static and demand isn't.

The housing market has nothing to do with it. It is flat right now because of the fallout from sub-prime adjustable mortgages. Once that excess is sopped up, the market will boom again because the population keeps growing. Just like in the mid-80's. Similiarly retiring Boomers and taxes are irrelevant. There are new hi wage earners coming along every day to pay those taxes and buy the houses. We simply have a classic supply and demand issue made worse by international currency problems. Maybe I need to change my 4.11 rear to a 3.36. A small contribution.

Rob

 

Believe it or not, in China if you have more than one child there are very serious financial penalties. We are now in a global economy, like it or not. The people in developing countries are just as entitled to their share of "energy" (and many other things) as we are.

 

Shell oil company just reported their first quarter profits.......25%. The fleecing of America continues.

 

Valero, one of the biggest refinerss reported a DROP of 77% in first quarter profits.

 

Dont put to much stock in things going back to the way they were two years ago. With luck we will stay at the $4.00 mark. Enjoy the C6 while you can. I see a FWD V6 Corvette in the near Future.

 

All true, as where the preceeding comments where we are headed.

And what's worse, if we expect any of this current round of politicians to get tough on the Greenies and start bulding refinaries, nuke plants, off & on shore drilling, that's not going to happen either. Hellary = she's clueless and a self-serving power grabber, plus a spread the wealth socialist (expect for her money), and thinks Oil Companies bad, Government good; Obomba = ditto, plus even more socialism; and Juan McGreen = he's almost as bad as the most major fearmonger, Algore. So they're no help...

"W" was saying today Congress better get off their @sses and make some changes, especially in energy attitudes. Probably too little, too late... That energy shift to self sufficiency won't be built overnight.

Whatever happened to the victorious in war? The winner takes the spoils & riches...don't we own Iraq? If we had the refinaries, we could be setting our own rules...

 

Being from Houston I am biased.

Peak oil was in about 2005, many magazines were reporting that it would occur at least 3 years before it happened.

China and India becoming so prosperous (in relative terms) was the last nail in the coffin.

Remember the oil crisis in the early '70's? I'm sure most of us were around then. We have n't done a whole lot since then have we.

Except get back to big SUV's this time around and 500 hp sedans and sports cars.

This time we have no shortages so far. Remember the gas lines.

I'll take paying more, over sleeping in my car at 4:00 in the morning in line for the gas station to open up, thank you.

Go ahead blame the oil companies. They are an easy target. Its their fault.

Its not that the U. S. has wasted 30 years to come up with a national energy policy.

Its not that all the easy oil to find in the U. S. is gone and that the hard oil to get to, is above the Artic Circle in Anwar and off the coast of Florida and California where current law says they cant drill.

Its not that most of the oil in the world is controlled by a cartel of foreign governments who want to make as much money from their oil as possible.

Its not that after the oil companies find the oil in places where no one ever knew there was oil, the governments of those countries void the contracts they signed with the oil companies and tell them too bad.

Its not that many foreign governments kick out the oil companies and say we dont need them anymore and then after they leave, fail to find any new oil to replace the oil that is being taken out.

Its not that for the last 20 years oil prices were so low that, no young kid in his right mind would pick the oil business to get into and there now is a shortage of just about everyone and everything to find new oil.

But we are still in a Captalist society here in America (I think), and with the new higher prices and profits to be made, it will all work it self out, as thats what happens in Capitalist societies. That is unless we decide to go the other way and have price controls, special taxes, shortages and lines.

You choose.

 

How about Diesel fuel.I feel sorry for the independent truckers.Ican"t see how they can make any money.Bob W

 

You are right that oil and housing are not related.. my inference is
that they are both upon us at the same time... not dependant
on each other...

1/3 of our nations Current population was born between
1945 and 1960...

There are NOT enough qualified buyers to absorb
the homes that will be vacated by the boomers..
(please post population/income figures to the contrary)

When there are 10 sellers and 4 buyers prices drop..

The only buyers that have income levels
sufficient enough to purchase Boomer Homes are between
the ages 30-50...

So the housing equation is ages 30-50 vs. The Boomers

The credit crisis has exaserbated the situation
.... but the BIG hit will be from the population imbalance caused by
sell off of houses from the Baby Boomers.

I have been studying the Boomers issue since
1986.... Prices are going to plunge because of oversupply
of housing... even after the credit mop up.

Buy Drug Stocks/ Retirement Homes... they should see growth
for 15 years.. then cash out..

 

I don't understand why SoCal gets hit so bad with gas prices since we have refineries here.

Oh yeah, its a blue state

 

[QUOTE=philip964;1565242980] Go ahead blame the oil companies. They are an easy target. Its their fault. Pretty much is, they create fake shortages by taking refineries ofline during peak seasons

Its not that the U. S. has wasted 30 years to come up with a national energy policy.
Its not that most of the oil in the world is controlled by a cartel of foreign governments who want to make as much money from their oil as possible
Thats not true, there is plenty of oil available, it is the oil companies and the speculators driving up the price

Its not that for the last 20 years oil prices were so low that, no young kid in his right mind would pick the oil business to get into and there now is a shortage of just about everyone and everything to find new oil.

puleeeeeeeeeeese

Too many politicians in the pocket of big oil. I am not biased, I just call it as I see it. Pretty embarrasing when a World Leader goes and asks OPEC to produce more oil so oil prices can be brought down and OPEC has to explain that there is a glut of oil on the market.................

 

Oil companies don't set the price of oil, futures traders do. They bid the price of oil up or down, depending on how much is available, or on how much they think will be avaialble some time in the future.

If an oil company decides to set a price of say $140 a barrel, people won't buy it, if oil is trading at $110.

So, if prices are up, profits are up, now, lets say Shell, wants to be a good communist company and sell its oil for $30 a barrel until all of its oil is gone and it goes out of business. Some one else will buy the oil and sell it for the current market price of what people are willing to pay, and make a killing.

Since profits are bad, how about everybody sell their house for the same price they bought it at, or sell that '67 Corvette you paid $5,000 for back in 1979 for $5000 today, heck, or even $12,000 to just cover inflation over 29 years and break even?

Doug

 

100% correct... driven by world demand...

 

Not when there is a glut of oil on the market and OPEC is going to cut back

You guys should check out who is backing the speculators

 

Coal generated electricity Is the CHEAPEST energy out there. Now all three presidential candidates including George Bush want global warming legislation. Global warming is a HOAX. So now we have $4.00/Gallon gas and Washington is drooling to go after Coal, Oil companies, Power plants, etc. Washington will shake down these industries for cash for their pockets and our gas prices will not go down but up. Then our electricity will Quadruple in cost. Remember when the Clintons were in the White Houses. Speaking about BIG TOBACCO. Well now it will be BIG OIL or Big Coal. Make an industry an enemy and then legislate them to death with taxes and fines and shake them down for cash. Gas is expensive and rising. Look out for the legislation on Oil and coal generated Power Plants. Anytime Washington sticks it to an industry, the industry will of course pass it on to it's customers, as they should. Call your Congressman and Senator and tell them to vote against ANY Global Warming legislation. All they will do is screw things up more. Call them today. Don't wait till it's too late. Get a read on them early. Al Gore is a LIAR and a Hoax instigator. Remember he said he invented the internet. To think they call George Bush dumb. Al Gore is the king of Stupid. Sorry for the Rant. DG

 

Leon Hess was a Union buster in 1988. Put guards on his Tugs and Barges and threw the crews off. When forced by the NLRB to settle up, he sold the fleet to a company called Hornbeck

 

History -

Opec is formed - 1960

Opec members over sell there allotted quotas (1960's to mid 70's). Mostly to fund wars. I.E. Each opec country over sold there quota, and supply increases, thus cheap oil.

Mid 70's. OPEC cracks down on countries that are over selling. Price goes through the roof.

Late 70's - Gas price goes through the roof.

Late 70's - America responds by drilling in Alaska. Prudhoe Bay is built, and Jumpin Jimmy Carter makes ANWR a national park. (Side note, there is more oil in ANWR then all of the fields COMBINED on the North Slope. Think there is no oil in AK !!! The pipeline pumps oil CONTINUOUSLY. It cannot stop, or the oil will cool, and be unpumpable).

Mid 80 - I remember, I was living in AK at the time. 1985 oil was like 35.00 a Barrel. Feb 1986 Oil was 9.00 A barrel.

Late 80's - OPEC had oil so cheap, that pumping it on our home soil was not economically feasible. Exxon, ARCO, Alyaska Inc. were losing money had over fist. Oil companies were bought out by bigger oil companies, and now we are down to a handful.

Early 90's - Gas is over a dollar, all heck broke loose as the futures market drove gas up over the first Gulf war.

Mid 90's - Gas is cheap, electric cars, even though on the market or cars that get 50 mpg, WHO CARED. Gas was 92 cents a gallon in 1998 when I was driving my TAHOE 120 miles every day to college.

Now OPEC has no reason to sell cheap, China, Pakistan etc are buying oil at whatever the price is.

Some fun facts:

Oil from Alaska ( NON ANWR, we can't drill there, it a park you know!!) So if you are thinking about taking the Family there for some outdoor fun, here is how you get there. Here is the road called the Dalton Highway or by locals known as the HAUL road. When I lived in AK, it was not open to the public. Only commercial vehicles. SO, if you want to go to ANWR and have a pick nick here is how you get there.

You start here !!! Note the road, this is the best part of the road, you can do at least 45-55 and make some good time.


Here is the fist hill, looks like no problem right, that hill is over a mile long and near vertical. The guy driving that truck is going about 75 so he can make it up the other side. I know, I was in the pass. seat. I was 8.


Oh, and it is just the start of the hills, or grades.
A truck would get one round trip on a set of tires.


Then you come to the Brooks Range. Here is the start. The grades here are worse then the above pics.


If you are in the range before June1st or after August 1st. You risk this
Look in the very back of the pic, see the spilt in the trees, that the road, a near vertical grade.


The Haul Road, Late August. Note a spare truck and 150 gal. of fuel and a snow blower. Don't want to be stranded here.


If you get stuck in by weather at ANWR, this is how you get back home to Prudhoe Bay. Since it is still light, this pic was probably taken in Sept.


Here is a test site at ANWR. Again around Sept/oct.


Here is a rig at Prudhoe Bay, again around Oct. NOTE, no Beautiful Mountains, no pristine streams, or meadows it's a barren waste land of frozen tundra.


HERE is the best of it all. The Canadians are Drilling into ANWR from there side of the border, at a 45 degree angle and pumping it out. HAAAA the jokes on us !!!!