Extrapolation?
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Intermediate
Joined: Nov 2020
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Extrapolation?
So I got the info about my car from National Corvette Museum but there's a formula for extrapolation but I cannot figure it out is there anybody in here that knows how to do the extrapolation formula to figure out how many of my cars were actually made?
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Intermediate
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yes I will get a real number there is a formula to figure it out I have all the numbers I just don't know what the formula is I've already talked to the Corvette museum they said if you do the formula you will get an accurate number
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It is just a guess. The detail of records is not there.
NCM can't even tell you if your new car is 1 of 3 or whatever. They couldn't for my 2019. They can give breakdowns of options and you can get most of the way there, but there is no record of exactly what option is ordered with every other option to get a unique set.
NCM can't even tell you if your new car is 1 of 3 or whatever. They couldn't for my 2019. They can give breakdowns of options and you can get most of the way there, but there is no record of exactly what option is ordered with every other option to get a unique set.
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Melting Slicks
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From: Downers Grove Illinois
Example to get you in the ballpark:
Option 1: 10,000 out of 30,000 = 1/3 = .33333333
Option 2: 20,000 out of 30,000 = 2/3 = .66666666
Option 3: 7,500 out of 30,000 = 1/4 =.25
.33333333 x .66666666 x .25 = .0555555555
.055555555 x 30,000 = 1,667 or about 1,667 out of 30,000
Option 1: 10,000 out of 30,000 = 1/3 = .33333333
Option 2: 20,000 out of 30,000 = 2/3 = .66666666
Option 3: 7,500 out of 30,000 = 1/4 =.25
.33333333 x .66666666 x .25 = .0555555555
.055555555 x 30,000 = 1,667 or about 1,667 out of 30,000
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Intermediate
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Example to get you in the ballpark:
Option 1: 10,000 out of 30,000 = 1/3 = .33333333
Option 2: 20,000 out of 30,000 = 2/3 = .66666666
Option 3: 7,500 out of 30,000 = 1/4 =.25
.33333333 x .66666666 x .25 = .0555555555
.055555555 x 30,000 = 1,667 or about 1,667 out of 30,000
Option 1: 10,000 out of 30,000 = 1/3 = .33333333
Option 2: 20,000 out of 30,000 = 2/3 = .66666666
Option 3: 7,500 out of 30,000 = 1/4 =.25
.33333333 x .66666666 x .25 = .0555555555
.055555555 x 30,000 = 1,667 or about 1,667 out of 30,000
Instructor
Joined: May 2020
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From: Front Royal Va
The only way to get the true 1 of # value for your car would be to have access to the entire database for the production year. From there you could run a query: "Color=Steel Blue AND Option1 = TRUE AND Option2 = TRUE AND Option3 = TRUE...).
Anything else is just a WAG (wild *** guess) based on odds.
In 1990, there were 813 Steel Blue Metallics out of 23646 Corvettes produced. We could look at the interior and if yours was Saddle Cloth (rarest), well, only 142 were made with that, so we could say that yours is at worst 1 of 142 or maybe the only one made with Saddle Cloth and Steel Blue. Or all 813 could have been equipped with Black leather and now you are back to 1 of 813.
Using just a list of # of X, # of Y, and # of Z as in the other example posted will yield nothing but odds no matter what formula you throw at it. There could be as many as 7500 (lowest number produced) exact matches or as few as 1, because 20,000 of the 30,000 did NOT choose Option1 and 10,000 did NOT choose Option2.
Anything else is just a WAG (wild *** guess) based on odds.
In 1990, there were 813 Steel Blue Metallics out of 23646 Corvettes produced. We could look at the interior and if yours was Saddle Cloth (rarest), well, only 142 were made with that, so we could say that yours is at worst 1 of 142 or maybe the only one made with Saddle Cloth and Steel Blue. Or all 813 could have been equipped with Black leather and now you are back to 1 of 813.
Using just a list of # of X, # of Y, and # of Z as in the other example posted will yield nothing but odds no matter what formula you throw at it. There could be as many as 7500 (lowest number produced) exact matches or as few as 1, because 20,000 of the 30,000 did NOT choose Option1 and 10,000 did NOT choose Option2.
Melting Slicks
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From: Longmont Co
So why don't you ask them what the formula is? Nobody else has ever heard of this, (many, many have asked).
Melting Slicks
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From: Longmont Co
To expand on JimLentz's comments:
suppose 50% of the cars had black exteriors. And suppose 50% of the cars had white interiors. You could arrive at a SWAG and say 1 out of 4 cars were black/white. But that is just an estimate that assumes random selections of each variable. Maybe people preferred black interiors with black exteriors and so ordered their cars that way 80% of the time. Or maybe white wasn't even available as a selection for a black exterior. Without an accurate database of each option of each car there is no way to get an exact number.
suppose 50% of the cars had black exteriors. And suppose 50% of the cars had white interiors. You could arrive at a SWAG and say 1 out of 4 cars were black/white. But that is just an estimate that assumes random selections of each variable. Maybe people preferred black interiors with black exteriors and so ordered their cars that way 80% of the time. Or maybe white wasn't even available as a selection for a black exterior. Without an accurate database of each option of each car there is no way to get an exact number.
Team Owner
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From: SE NY
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Example to get you in the ballpark:
Exceptions would be the special editions where exact numbers are likely available in the "Corvette Black Book".
Thread Starter
Intermediate
Joined: Nov 2020
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The only way to get the true 1 of # value for your car would be to have access to the entire database for the production year. From there you could run a query: "Color=Steel Blue AND Option1 = TRUE AND Option2 = TRUE AND Option3 = TRUE...).
Anything else is just a WAG (wild *** guess) based on odds.
In 1990, there were 813 Steel Blue Metallics out of 23646 Corvettes produced. We could look at the interior and if yours was Saddle Cloth (rarest), well, only 142 were made with that, so we could say that yours is at worst 1 of 142 or maybe the only one made with Saddle Cloth and Steel Blue. Or all 813 could have been equipped with Black leather and now you are back to 1 of 813.
Using just a list of # of X, # of Y, and # of Z as in the other example posted will yield nothing but odds no matter what formula you throw at it. There could be as many as 7500 (lowest number produced) exact matches or as few as 1, because 20,000 of the 30,000 did NOT choose Option1 and 10,000 did NOT choose Option2.
Anything else is just a WAG (wild *** guess) based on odds.
In 1990, there were 813 Steel Blue Metallics out of 23646 Corvettes produced. We could look at the interior and if yours was Saddle Cloth (rarest), well, only 142 were made with that, so we could say that yours is at worst 1 of 142 or maybe the only one made with Saddle Cloth and Steel Blue. Or all 813 could have been equipped with Black leather and now you are back to 1 of 813.
Using just a list of # of X, # of Y, and # of Z as in the other example posted will yield nothing but odds no matter what formula you throw at it. There could be as many as 7500 (lowest number produced) exact matches or as few as 1, because 20,000 of the 30,000 did NOT choose Option1 and 10,000 did NOT choose Option2.
Thread Starter
Intermediate
Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 45
Likes: 3
The only way to get the true 1 of # value for your car would be to have access to the entire database for the production year. From there you could run a query: "Color=Steel Blue AND Option1 = TRUE AND Option2 = TRUE AND Option3 = TRUE...).
Anything else is just a WAG (wild *** guess) based on odds.
In 1990, there were 813 Steel Blue Metallics out of 23646 Corvettes produced. We could look at the interior and if yours was Saddle Cloth (rarest), well, only 142 were made with that, so we could say that yours is at worst 1 of 142 or maybe the only one made with Saddle Cloth and Steel Blue. Or all 813 could have been equipped with Black leather and now you are back to 1 of 813.
Using just a list of # of X, # of Y, and # of Z as in the other example posted will yield nothing but odds no matter what formula you throw at it. There could be as many as 7500 (lowest number produced) exact matches or as few as 1, because 20,000 of the 30,000 did NOT choose Option1 and 10,000 did NOT choose Option2.
Anything else is just a WAG (wild *** guess) based on odds.
In 1990, there were 813 Steel Blue Metallics out of 23646 Corvettes produced. We could look at the interior and if yours was Saddle Cloth (rarest), well, only 142 were made with that, so we could say that yours is at worst 1 of 142 or maybe the only one made with Saddle Cloth and Steel Blue. Or all 813 could have been equipped with Black leather and now you are back to 1 of 813.
Using just a list of # of X, # of Y, and # of Z as in the other example posted will yield nothing but odds no matter what formula you throw at it. There could be as many as 7500 (lowest number produced) exact matches or as few as 1, because 20,000 of the 30,000 did NOT choose Option1 and 10,000 did NOT choose Option2.
Instructor
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 214
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From: Front Royal Va
If the ratio of 6 speed vs. automatic (8100 vs 15546) were to hold consistent across color/body combinations, you might be able to say yours is 1 of 80, but that would be a guesstimate.