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There is some truth to "ricer math" The only catch is that the numbers are generally much smaller than advertised. However most modifications support eachother. For instance: (using arbitrary numbers)
Mod 1: Cold Air Intake = +10 rwhp
Mod 2: Cat back exhaust = +10 rwhp
Mod 1 + mod 2 = ~15rwhp
A great example of a supporting modification is getting an aftermarket intake manifold after dropping in a custom cam. Normally an aftermarket intake manifold will net you only 3-5rwhp but after some cams people have seen as much as 10-15 rwhp increase.
Generally, manufacturer claims don't mean squat. For example, when I had my supercharged Toyota Tacoma, the K&N FIPK that sold for 230 bucks claimed a 15-20hp increase... when it actually dynoed a 3 hp LOSS over the stock air box. As a result, I went for a dyno proven method instead. I just cut a hole in my airbox for 5-7 more rwhp. Granted that was on this platform, my point is... just do your research. Somebody else has probably already tried it.
The biggest obsticle for most of us is that most manufactuers with dyno claims test their products on stock cars (many will use a stock Zo6 as their base vehicle) I doubt any HP enthusiast here has only 1 mod on their car.
What i'd really love to see is a dyno graph that shows HP/TQ change over the entire powerband. This would be excpetionally useful for those seeking the low end "umph"