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I've never taken off an oil pan or an exhaust manifold in my life so I think we're confusing "over thinking" with just me putting something off that I've never done until it's warm enough to drive it somewhere and letting them do it.
That being said, assuming the manifold bolts come out, I think I recall putting the z bar in place, so no big deal there taking it off . It then comes down to the part where I said the tube is no longer round, so not sure if a tap would work, but maybe the sheet metal screw like Derek suggested might still get in there.
If it was me, I would not pull the pan unless all else fails. The piece at the top looks like the end of the upper tube where it broke off OR it could be the top of the lower tube. Either way - Clean off any loose dirt or paint chips first. I would grab it with a vise grip from the side (crush it) then slide hammer it out. DONE. This stub will not fight you on the way out.
I had vise grips on and wired a wrench to the vice grips so I could hit the wrench at a good angle from below. Seemed like it should have worked but it didn't budge.
May need to try this again with the front jacked up so I can swing a little harder.
No PB blaster yet. . I'll pick some up on my home. Do I need to worry at all that it gets down into the pan?
I wouldn't worry about the oil. No need to flood it though. If you can get a little down in the voids you have going it may help some. Looks like you are on the point of folding it in on itself. It may be ready to let go.
Ok. Now that it is squished, unless you can turn it back'forth it ain't coming out from above. Don't be intimidated by an oil pan. A new floor jack and stands will cost less than the labor to have somebody else do it. And you will still have the jack...